美光科技首席执行官表示，2027年和2028年的内存供应将比2026年紧张得多。

美光科技首席执行官表示，2027年和2028年的内存供应将比2026年紧张得多。
Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

原始链接: https://www.techpowerup.com/353296/micron-ceo-says-memory-supply-will-be-much-tighter-in-2027-and-2028-than-in-2026

美光科技首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉警告称，受人工智能需求激增的推动，2027和2028财年的存储器与存储供应紧张程度将显著高于2026财年。尽管美光计划扩大DRAM产能，但公司认为供应何时能够追上需求仍没有明确时间表。其位于爱达荷州的ID2晶圆厂预计要到2028年末才会开始生产晶圆，而美光2027财年超过75%的产量已经向客户承诺。美光2026财年第四季度营收创下542亿美元的历史纪录。上季度，消费级DRAM价格上涨约17%，NAND价格上涨约30%。公司此前预计供应将在2028年逐步改善，但现在认为短缺状况将持续更长时间。这些预测仍可能随市场状况的变化而调整。

Hacker News 的讨论聚焦于美光科技 CEO 的警告：2027 至 2028 年的内存供应将比 2026 年紧张得多。许多评论者不信任这一预测，认为美光会从营造紧迫感中获益，可能是在促使客户，尤其是人工智能公司，更早购买。“卖铲子的人预期冬天会出现短缺”这一比喻形象地表达了这种质疑。即使短缺确实存在，评论者也预计 RAM 会涨价、硬件性价比下降、细分产品减少，消费者升级设备的节奏会放缓，而不是彻底买不到产品。现有设备仍可继续使用；高效软件、8GB 内存设备和 Linux 的吸引力可能提升。一些人预测，厂商会引导消费者转向云计算和低功耗终端。另一些人认为，中国的长鑫存储（CXMT）可能成为未来的竞争者，扩大供应并对现有 DRAM 厂商形成压力，但它能否满足全球需求仍不确定。总体而言，讨论者对美光的动机持怀疑态度，但普遍预计供应会收紧，价格会大幅上涨。

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Thursday, October 1st 2026

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra says memory and storage supply will likely be much tighter in 2027 and 2028 than it was in 2026. He made the remarks during Micron's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call on September 30, where the company reported record quarterly revenue of $54.2 billion. Here's what he said:

Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call, and we expect memory and storage supply-demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026. AI is becoming super intelligent, and memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers' platforms. Even with additional industry DRAM clean room space plans with robust demand trends, including new upside requests from customers, we do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.

In June, Micron CEO said they expected industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, but couldn't predict when supply would catch up with demand. The company now says it still has no line of sight to a balance, even with additional industry cleanroom space planned. New capacity takes time as well, since Micron's Idaho ID2 fab is only expected to start wafer output in late 2028. Mehrotra also said more than 75% of Micron's 2027 output is already committed to customers. On the consumer side, Micron said DRAM prices rose in the high-teens percent range last quarter, with NAND up about 30%. It looks like relief isn't close, although these are company projections and could change.

Source: Micron Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

美光科技首席执行官表示，2027年和2028年的内存供应将比2026年紧张得多。 Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

美光科技首席执行官表示，2027年和2028年的内存供应将比2026年紧张得多。
Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026