Cantor Fitzgerald metals and mining analyst Matthew O'Keefe provided clients on Tuesday with an update on Almonty Industries, citing a corporate update from CEO Lewis Black. The miner's crown jewel tungsten mine in South Korea has begun shipping concentrate as the West's answer to conflict-free tungsten supply comes online, playing into a bigger theme we've outlined called "owning the bottlenecks."
O'Keefe says the Sangdong mine has begun shipping concentrate, is moving toward 24/7 operations, and has about 4.6 months of stockpiled ore to support its ramp-up. Phase II expansion is also already underway, with completion expected in 2027.
O'Keefe outlined why Sangdong is critical to expanding Western-aligned tungsten supply and breaking China's "quasi-monopoly" grip:
A major source ex-China: Phase II would increase throughput to 1.2 million tonnes annually, potentially supporting more than 460,000 MTU of tungsten trioxide production per year at Sangdong.
The production inflection: Cantor’s detailed model forecasts consolidated output rising from 126,287 MTU in 2026 to 444,400 MTU in 2027, while all-in sustaining costs fall from $905 to $319 per MTU. These are forecasts, contingent on successful execution.
"This is a defining moment for Almonty and for Western supply chains: tungsten mined and processed in an allied nation is now a reality," CEO Black wrote in a statement.
CEO Black added more color on the ramp-up of the South Korean mine:
Sangdong Phase II: The Next Chapter Is Already Underground
The stockpile on the surface does more than feed the mill. It buys us time, and we are putting that time to work. With enough ore on-hand to carry Phase 1 through ramp-up and early production, our mining teams have been free to turn their attention deeper into the mountain, where underground development for Phase II is already well underway.
While the drills advance below ground, the mill above it has gained an important partner. Metso, a global leader in minerals processing technology, is on site at Sangdong, working alongside our operators to support the Phase 1 ramp-up. The same engineers helping us fine-tune today's plant are laying the technical groundwork for tomorrow's future.
That brings me to the news many of you have been waiting for.
Phase II is officially a go.
Underground development is progressing, and we are placing orders with Metso for the equipment that will power the expansion, including new mills. The same partner that helped bring Phase 1 to life will now help build its successor. We expect Phase II to be completed in 2027, further ramping capacity to up to 1.2 million tonnes per annum and positioning Sangdong to potentially produce over 460,000 MTU annually, making it one of the largest tungsten mines outside of China and definitively the largest producing currently.
Sangdong's ramp-up comes as Stifel aerospace and defense analyst Jonathan Siegmann pointed out that the US strategic stockpile of tungsten has been nearly depleted. This is merely an indication that the Trump administration's push to secure conflict-free critical material supply chains will create massive tailwinds for the metals space, and those miners that can deliver today will be the big winners.
The most glaring problem is that China's control over critical materials mining and refining will remain in play through the end of this decade...
Adrien Rabier, Bernstein's equity analyst covering European aerospace and defense, outlined earlier this week that the rearmament cycle in Europe, and more broadly across the West, is already underway.
The problem is that missiles, bombs, drones, fighter jets, tanks, and just about everything else in the defense world require high-quality critical materials. Shortages could derail production lines, which is why the West is actively seeking to build out new supplies, making early movers such as Almonty and others that can deliver conflict-free supplies the winners.
O’Keefe reiterated a "Buy" rating on Almonty with a 12-month $25.50 target, implying about 93% upside from the previous close cited in the report.