永久移居美国的愿望降至新低
Desire to Move Permanently to U.S. at New Low

原始链接: https://news.gallup.com/poll/708614/desire-migrate-drops-new-low.aspx

盖洛普2025年调查显示,美国仍是首选的永久移民目的地,但其吸引力已降至想移民者的15%,为近二十年最低,低于2007–2009年的24%。加拿大以9%排名第二。全球整体移民意愿降至15%,为十年低点,主要受拉丁美洲、撒哈拉以南非洲和东南亚下降驱动。拉丁美洲对美国的偏好从33%降至28%,包括洪都拉斯35个百分点的下降。尽管有所下降,美国仍为拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲的首选。相比之下,美国、加拿大和欧盟等接收地区的移民意愿仍接近历史高位;在15–44岁的美国女性中,40%愿意移居国外。盖洛普估计全球约9亿人想移民,其中包括1.34亿人偏好美国。

一段 Hacker News 讨论围绕盖洛普报告展开,报告称希望永久移居美国的愿望降至新低,尽管美国仍是最热门目的地。评论者争论这一下降反映的是全球迁移意愿下降还是美国特定因素。一些人指出美国在全球迁移意愿中的市场份额从 2007 年的 24% 跌至 2025 年的 15%,而加拿大有所增长。其他人认为其他国家,尤其是加拿大和日本,增加或保持稳定,而英国也有所下降。该帖还涉及移民政策、签证、边境执法、经济机会、生活成本、生活质量以及政治担忧。有人说更严格的执法减少了非法移民,但可能吓退技术工人;其他人讨论美国尽管存在缺点,对高收入者是否仍具吸引力。总体而言,讨论突显了对这一趋势是表明美国相对其他选择的衰落,还是更广泛的全球性转变的分歧。
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原文

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. remains the most desired destination for people who would like to leave their own countries permanently, but Gallup's latest data show it is less attractive than it once was.

In 2025, 15% of adults worldwide who say they would like to move permanently to another country name the U.S. as their preferred destination, the lowest level recorded in nearly two decades of Gallup research. From 2007 to 2009, 24% of would-be migrants named the U.S. as their top choice, and that figure remained near 20% through 2016. Since 2017, it has been at or below 18%.

The rank order of the countries attracting the most interest from potential migrants has seen little change since Gallup’s first measure. Canada ranks second, as it has for several years, with 9% of potential migrants mentioning the U.S. neighbor. The appeal of these desired destinations did not change in 2025, even as the U.S. became less desirable.

Line charts show trends in the percentage of adults worldwide who would like to move permanently to top destination countries from 2007–2009 to 2025. The United States remains the top destination but declines from 24% to 15%. Canada rises from 7% to 9%. The United Kingdom declines from 7% to 4%. Germany, Australia, Spain, France, Japan, Italy, and Saudi Arabia remain broadly stable around 3% to 5%.

Gallup's latest update on migration desire is based on a question asked almost annually: “Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?” Those who say they would like to move are then asked to name their preferred destination.

Results for 2025 are based on interviews with over 144,000 adults in 140 countries. The current estimates include data from China for 2023, the last time the question was asked there.

The most recent analysis period coincides with a sharp slowdown in international migration into the U.S., amid changes in immigration policy and declining migration desire in several regions. External data suggest global migration more broadly slowed in 2024 after surging post-pandemic.

Declining Desire to Move to the U.S.

The U.S. became less attractive to adults in several regions in 2025, with statistically significant declines in Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia.

Latin America accounts for seven of the 16 countries worldwide where the percentage naming the U.S. as a preferred destination fell by at least 10 points. In the region, the percentage fell from 33% in 2024 to 28% in 2025.

Other Latin American countries that saw double-digit declines include U.S. neighbor Mexico, where the latest 21% who want to move to the U.S. matches the previous low set in 2017 and 2018. In Honduras, desire to migrate to the U.S. dropped 35 percentage points, from 71% to 36%, the largest decline in any country in 2025.

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Despite the falling numbers, the U.S. remains by far the most desired destination in Latin America and the Caribbean and in sub-Saharan Africa. The picture varies more in other regions.

In Southeast Asia, Japan leads at 23%, compared with 12% for the U.S. In the Middle East and North Africa, Germany attracts 13% and Saudi Arabia 12% of potential migrants, with the U.S. at 9%. In South Asia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are roughly tied, each cited by 7%. Within the European Union, Spain, at 11%, and Switzerland, at 8%, rank ahead of the U.S., at 6%.

Global Desire to Migrate Falls, Shifts

Beyond where people want to go, the data also show a shift in how many want to move at all.

Overall, global desire to migrate declined in 2025 to its lowest level in a decade, driven by sharp drops in regions that have long had the highest migration aspirations, including Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. After holding at a record-high 16% between 2021 and 2024, global desire dipped in 2025 for the first time in years, falling one point to 15%, a level not seen since 2018.

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In Latin America and the Caribbean, 25% of adults say they would like to move permanently to another country, the lowest level in a decade. The decline is particularly notable in this region, where migration desire has fallen steadily after peaking at 34% in 2021-2022.

Multiple countries across the region recorded double-digit declines between 2024 and 2025. In Honduras and El Salvador, the percentage of adults wanting to leave fell sharply last year, from levels above 50% in several prior years to 35% and 25%, respectively.

In sub-Saharan Africa, where migration desire remains the highest globally, 33% say they would like to move permanently, also a decade low. As recently as 2023, that figure stood at 37%, ticking upward from 36% in 2021-2022.

In regions that are typically on the receiving end of migrants, the picture is different. Migration desire in the United States and Canada (20%) and the European Union (21%) remains near record highs.

In the U.S., notably, the heightened desire to move abroad is concentrated among women younger than 45. In 2025, 40% of U.S. women aged 15 to 44 say they would move permanently to another country if they had the opportunity, up from 10% in 2014. The trend first rose sharply in 2016 and continued across multiple years, suggesting a broader shift in outlook rather than a short-term political effect.

Bottom Line

It is important to note that desire to migrate is not the same as intent to move. Not everyone who wants to move can or will do so. The 2025 data show that fewer people worldwide are imagining their futures elsewhere, and the U.S., long the world’s most desired destination, is attracting less of that interest than at any point in nearly two decades.

For years, the dominant story in global migration data was a rising desire to move across nearly every region. The 2025 data suggest that pattern is shifting. The declines are widespread and concentrated in the regions that have historically driven global migration.

At the same time, the picture is not uniform. In regions that typically receive migrants, including the U.S. and Canada, along with the EU, desire to leave remains near record highs. And within the U.S., a growing number of younger women say they would move abroad permanently if they could.

These patterns show that interest in moving abroad, and to the U.S. in particular, is shifting across regions. But despite these changes, many people worldwide — an estimated 900 million — would like to move, including about 134 million who would prefer to move to the U.S.

Read Gallup’s analysis of how these shifts in migration desire could translate into changes in population size and human capital across countries.

Andrew Dugan and Michelle Chau contributed to this analysis.

Stay up to date with the latest insights by following @Gallup on X and on Instagram.

For complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup's Country Data Set details. Learn more about how the Gallup World Poll works.

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