美国90%的工作时间用于AI基准测试覆盖不足的任务
90% of US working hours are spent on tasks not covered well by AI benchmarks

原始链接: https://www.mercor.com/research/labor-index/benchmark-map/

这些覆盖估算仍属暂定,因为它们依赖于一个包含 29 个基准测试的初始不完整列表,这可能低估了真实覆盖范围,且难以界定。对每个职业族的基准测试数量设上限,虽能提升全经济范围的广度,却低估了软件工程等基准测试密集领域的覆盖。聚焦于未饱和的基准测试可能低估在较简单任务上的表现,但纳入已饱和的基准测试可能高估真实世界覆盖;因此排除后者被认为偏差更小。最后,主观的筛选标准,尤其是“经济现实性”,增加了不确定性。

Mercor 报告称,90% 的美国工作时间花在 AI 基准测试覆盖不足的任务上,因此现有基准可能无法反映现实中的 AI 能力;基准提示还过度代表高薪职业。Hacker News 评论者讨论其影响:一些人认为自动化会先瞄准有利可图的数字工作,而物理任务仍较难;另一些人指出,大量软件工作涉及协调、利益相关者和政治,而非编码;有些人对 AI 炒作和企业 FOMO 持怀疑态度;还有人认为机器人最终可能处理低技术含量任务。总体而言,AI 的影响可能不均衡,数字和白领任务比物理或协调密集型工作面临更大暴露。
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原文

Our estimates of total economic coverage, and of patterns in coverage, all come from the initial list of 29 benchmarks we chose. This is not a complete or perfectly representative sample of the broader universe of unsaturated, public, agentic economic benchmarks. Any incomplete list will necessarily bias down estimates of economic coverage, and it is difficult to bound that bias. We want to stress, therefore, that these results are provisional. We will update them as we expand the initial benchmark list.

We also capped the number of included benchmarks in each job family in order to maximize breadth of coverage. We think this makes our estimate of economy-wide benchmark coverage more accurate, at the cost of biasing down our estimates of coverage in the most-benchmarked job families (e.g. software engineering).

By selecting for unsaturated benchmarks, we risk understating benchmark coverage on O*NET tasks which are easier for LLMs to complete. On the other hand, including saturated benchmarks would risk overstating benchmark coverage if saturation is downstream of lower task realism. The latter claim seems likely, given that benchmarks often overstate LLM performance in real-world deployments. We think that the bias from including saturated benchmarks would be greater than the bias from excluding them, but neither option is ideal.

Finally, while we outline our benchmark selection criteria in the Benchmark Index tab, several criteria (like “Economic Realism”) are difficult to formalize and introduce some subjectivity in our choices.

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