产品经理们也不安全
Product Managers aren't safe either

原始链接: https://lucaskostka.com/posts/ai-challenges-more-than-devs

摘要:AI 威胁的不只是开发者,而是大多数工作。普通程序员“完了”——就像 Instagram 取代了大多数职业摄影师一样,90% 的开发者将失去护城河,而顶尖人才仍会蓬勃发展。架构师仍相对安全,因为他们的工作需要私有数据、合规以及难以自动化的人际技能。产品经理同样危险:随着代码变得廉价,一个人就能构建功能并形成对客户痛点的产品直觉,从而合并“技术”与“产品”角色。资深产品经理应感到担忧,除非他们能展示架构技能——人类智能最后的堡垒之一。作者是一名程序员,担心职业的部分内容可能消失,并敦促产品经理变得自我觉察,整合实践且持久的技能。

Hacker News 上一个关于文章的帖子,文章称产品经理并不免受 AI 影响。评论围绕产品经理是否可被替代展开争论:有人说 AI 最终可能超越产品经理的决策能力,而另一些人认为产品经理工作包含工程师常回避的人际互动。一位评论者表示 AI 驱动的组织可能让产品经理冗余;另一位称这是缺乏数据的末日论。Simon Willison 区分了“代码吐出者”与能提示、验证并交付的更广泛开发者。最后一条评论警告,AI 驱动的劳动变化可能影响许多职业和行业,并带来政治后果。
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原文

AI is challenging most jobs, not just devs. And, to me, PM should seriously worrry.

Code spitters are cooked, let's be honest here and accept the fate so everyone can move on.

Architects aren't, because whatever the accuracy of any model, making it serves you need within the constraints of security + compliance + technical capabilities + budget + ... requires private data, interpersonal meetings and skills that make it hard or impossible to automate today.

genAI, to me, feels like the same threat as Instagram for professional photographs: 90% of photographs lost their moat against 16 yo taking pictures with their phones. The remaining 10% unlocked even more value because of their talent, that could not be copied.

Now, genAI is threatening devs in the same way: mediocre like me won't survive against 10x developers supercharged with AI (until they also get replaced by supercharged AI agents. But wait? Until they also get replaced by supercharged AI swarms with... bref!)

But it's not just devs, mind you! PMs are also severely endangered for the same reasons: when any PM can just prompt a feature, what happens when a dev prompt a feature too? It's up to you to think that PM are better equipped when it comes to understanding why a feature make sense than a developer. What's happening, though, and if you are doing things right, is that the same person coding a feature can also build PM intuition as to why this feature needs to be built at all. The latter comes from LLM. Because since code is cheap, there's more time to invest in understanding the customer pain point and the company solution (not just the soft: the design trade-offs, what were the assumptions 10 years ago versus today, etc...)

I grew up with the distinction of "tech guy" needs a "product guy". I am not dismissing it, I am just saying that the world is entering into a phase where both roles are eventually melting into a single function.

And that the product guy, whatever his seniority, should be seriously worried*unless he can demonstrate architecture skills, which is one of the last bastion of human intelligence.

For the sake of transparency, I am a programmer, I've developed data marketing products for the last four years before moving to Cloudflare to work on their, recently acquired, YC company Zaraz.

To close on a more personal note, that doesn't mean I am here to judge: the world is *definitely not* running the way I'd like regarding genAI usage and I am just afraid that "part" and then "our whole" profession disappear. I guess that PMs should be a little more self-aware and start consolidating skills that will work. Like analysing a text file, with a language that lets you do it in just 14 lines of codes

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