The story in the Strait of Hormuz has been that Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to about 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, including pipeline shipments, while refined-product exports remain muted.
The uneven recovery shows how Gulf producers prioritize crude oil shipments over refined products as the Hormuz chokepoint remains vulnerable despite encouraging diplomatic signals.
Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of industry consultant FGE NexantECA, said last week that while Middle Eastern crude exports, including pipeline shipments, have recovered to 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, refined-product shipments remain at around 35% to 40%.
"Oil infrastructure such as refineries remains susceptible to drone strikes," which has led Gulf producers to prioritize crude shipments, said Xavier Tang, senior market analyst for Vortexa.
More good news from Hormuz on Tuesday, as Bloomberg reports that Qatar's liquefied natural gas loadings have reached 13 to 15 shipments per 10-day period on a moving-average basis this month, up from about 11 in October, or roughly half of pre-war levels.
The figures are based on Bloomberg, Kpler and Copernicus data.
A pickup in Qatari LNG supply reaching the global market would be welcome news for Europe, where natural gas inventories are well below seasonal norms and gas prices trade around 82 euros per megawatt-hour, down from more than 100 euros before last week's positive diplomatic signals erased a hefty war-risk premium in energy markets.
One of Qatar's LNG tankers was attacked last month, but that hasn't decreased exports or Hormuz transits. Previous attacks slowed Qatari LNG flows through Hormuz.
These positive developments toward ending the conflict and easing the global energy crisis sound promising, but stockpiles worldwide have been dangerously depleted this year. Ukraine's relentless targeting of Russian refineries suggests that global markets will remain tight well into next year, especially for diesel.
For Europe, the window to rebuild NatGas inventories has closed, with seasonal storage withdrawals already underway for several weeks.
As we reported Monday, Qatar is hedging against what could be years of Hormuz chokepoint uncertainty with deals to buy up to 7 million tons of US LNG annually from Cheniere and Woodside.
This year's US-Iran conflict knocked out roughly 17% of Qatar's export capacity, costing an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue. With deliveries beginning in 2030 and 2031, the deals cement America's LNG dominance into the 2030s and reveal a striking reversal: one of the world's largest LNG exporters is turning to its biggest rival for insurance amid Hormuz uncertainty that will linger for years.