Amodei称AI将在十年内治愈癌症,医生们表示怀疑。
Amodei Says AI Will Cure Cancer in a Decade. Doctors Are Skeptical

原始链接: https://www.businessinsider.com/dario-amodei-anthropic-cancer-cure-ipo-roadshow-backlash-doctors-2026-11

Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪预测,AI或可在十年内治愈癌症、阿尔茨海默病、心脏病和精神疾病,称其为"奇迹时代"。来自医学和生物技术领域的批评者称该时间表不切实际,并质疑这一说法是否为Anthropic万亿估值IPO的炒作。前德国卫生部长卡尔·劳特巴赫表示,此类治愈在十年内不可能实现;AI医学研究员梅林达·楚表示,Anthropic尚未证明其能做出有意义的贡献;生物技术高管拉米·埃尔甘杜尔称这些言论 desperation 为IPO路演 desperation。阿莫迪此前曾承认,说AI将治愈癌症听起来可能像陈词滥调。Anthropic已通过收购生物技术初创企业(包括一家专注于肌肉萎缩症的公司)扩展到药物开发领域,并在湾区开设了湿实验室以探索AI支持的生物学研究。

Hacker News 的讨论围绕 Dario Amodei 的说法展开,他称 AI 可能在十年内消除包括癌症、阿尔茨海默病、心脏病和精神疾病在内的主要疾病。许多评论者持怀疑态度:医学研究者指出,生物学进展缓慢、对人体理解不完整、临床试验周期长、疾病机制复杂,这些瓶颈是 AI 无法轻易绕过的。其他人更乐观,认为 AI 可以加速研究、自动化实验室、改善诊断并实现个性化治疗,同时指出 AI 在编程及其他领域已取得显著进展。评论者还批评“治愈癌症”说法过于简化,质疑这种治愈是否定义明确,并担忧可负担性、监管以及 Amodei 在 Anthropic IPO 上的财务激励。整体而言,讨论在 AI 驱动的医疗乐观与对炒作、生物复杂性和临床现实的担忧之间分裂。
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原文

A cure for cancer is less than a decade away, if you ask Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.

If you ask some in the medical community, though, that timeline is a bit ambitious, if not altogether unrealistic.

In a 42-minute IPO roadshow video the company released on Tuesday, Amodei made the audacious prediction that "cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness — these will be relics of the past in, I think, less than a decade."

The claim that all those diseases, which have bedeviled medicine's best minds for centuries, will be suddenly cured by AI riled some AI naysayers and physicians, who took to X to voice their disbelief.

"Curing cancer, Alzheimer's and mental illnesses can definitely benefit from AI. But that is impossible in just 10 years," Karl Lauterbach, Germany's former health minister, said on X.

"Unclear whether people like @DarioAmodei know so little about medicine or are deliberately misleading the public," he added.

Melinda B. Chu, an AI medical researcher with an MD from Saint Louis University, said Amodei made those predictions just to stoke hype for the company's IPO.

"Anthropic has done nothing to suggest they themselves will contribute meaningfully to these goals," Chu said.

Rami Elghandour, a biotech executive, said Amodei's prediction reeks of desperation. "I've taken two companies public. These are insane things to say in an IPO pitch," he said.

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Amodei, long prone to waxing poetic about how AI could be misused by bad actors, has sought to soften his doomer reputation by, in part, highlighting AI's potential benefit to medicine.

Anthropic has moved to expand its reach into drug development by buying several biotech startups, including a one-person company focused on developing treatments for muscular dystrophy.

In an October blog post, the company said it had "begun drug discovery efforts of our own."

The company also opened a "wet lab" in the Bay Area to explore how AI technology can support research in fundamental biology, a person familiar with the matter said.

In an August X post, Amodei said that the best way to win over AI skeptics is for AI companies to "actually cure cancer." In that post, however, he also noted that "saying that AI will cure cancer is more a cliché than it is inspiring, and most people think it is deceptive."

With the company's looming IPO, as it seeks to convince investors to buy stock at a trillion-dollar valuation, Amodei's calculus has apparently shifted.

"I think if we do this right, we can create an age of miracles," Amodei said in the video.

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