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| I think we're talking about the risk level when compared to various ways to work at a tech company, not risk level when compared against all possible occupations. |
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| > some evidently better than yours as they don’t require this intervention.
I’m not sure where that’s coming from. Also plenty of companies out there have control past the A. |
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| That's how risk works. The FAANG employee friends have exactly a 0% chance at a 9-figure outcome. They'll easily be at top decile if they pull a nominal $10M+ post-tax in 20 years. |
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| Yep, don't think it pays to go the middle ground in this case.
There isn't much point sweating for another person's dream, go big with your own startup or rest and vest at FAANG and live life. |
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| Allies, not friends. In that sort of environment, what sort of things get you allies? other than what you mentioned. For example when you say gaming the process, how to approach reviews? |
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| There are only ~2300 Series C companies.
You're going to need to be this size to have a ~$100M+ exit. There's about ~5 years between funding Series C and Series D [1]. Only ~55 Series C companies got funding in Q1 [2]. Only ~39 Series D companies got funding in Q1 [1]. You're going to have a MAX of about ~.7 * ~2300 * 1/5 = ~322 successful > $100M VC exits per year. Ultimately, you really need to IPO to have a successful exit - and there's only ~257 per year total, only ~65% of which are VC = ~167. ~5% of FAANG is L7+ - if you're including Microsoft, Nvidia, AirBNB and all the other companies with FAANG-like pay - you're at >2M employees. That's ~100k If the average tenure is ~10 years before retirement - you're looking at ~10k per year. Okay - it's about ~100 per successful exit. [1] https://carta.com/blog/state-of-private-markets-q3-2023/ |
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| Those aren't entirely overlapping skills. There are plenty of founders whose attitudes and generalist skill sets make them unhireable in the management ranks of FAANG. |
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| > there's a decent chance you'll walk away with very little
Well, some founders care about their employees and their idea, and the idea of the start up failing is much more than just money. |
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| It is very common and usually a condition of closing. Investors know that preferred is way better than common. They are buying highly speculative assets and want strong downside protection. |
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| Running with VC funds? Oh god, that would be cakewalk compared to even just figuring out how to ensure there's food if you spend money on some necessities for prototype... |
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| I didn’t comment on whether it was a good reason or not. My comment was just highlighting some of the complexities in what the blog author was hoping to achieve. |
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| Where would the stress come from? You get a paycheck and there is no personal downside except opportunity cost (and perhaps reputation). You don’t lose any money if your startup fails. |
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| A lot of people (esp people that performed extremely well in school and in corporate environment) find "failing" and "losing reputation" very stressful. |
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| cause if you fail you have to let people go
cause if you fail you have to tell your investors you lost money cause if you fail is a thought that’s always running through your head as you live it |
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| Investors do it so that the founder can better focus on increasing the value of the company. Having financial stress on top of everything else reduces the probability of liquidity events. |
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| Not to mention that in reality there is no guarantee you'd end up selling for $250m. $500k now would look pretty damm good if the whole thing tanks and the other 90% of your shares become worthless. |
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| This is when you immediately liquidate your stock position, instead of taking a loan using it as a collateral, which would likely cost you 10%-15% in interest, not 30%. |
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| But then they’re paying interest and very few startups are going to have stock that a someone will lend against. I cannot imagine someone taking Series A stock as collateral for a loan. |
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| >$5M is $5M even if you have $45M
The whole concept of diminishing marginal utility is that this isn’t true. The first $5M is worth far more to a given individual than the last $5M. |
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| Some companies might make you hold for a few months until the next earnings report and trading window. After that it depends on your tolerance for risk and your attitude about the IRS. |
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| Yes that’s accidental gambling. Or what i like to call “at the right place at the right time”.
Ask a Yahoo employee how that same plan would have worked out for them. That being said, good for you. :) |
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| For me I understand perfectly well that my EV cash-wise is lower working for a startup. I just don’t care past a certain income and working at a startup is more rewarding in other ways. |
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| Part of vacuum up the talent strategy that made it more expensive to launch any competition.
Other part, buying out any promising startups and letting them rot on the sidelines of the main business. |
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| The strongly diminishing marginal utility of money after $10M for most people makes that first $500k much more impactful than $5M would be after you have $45M. |
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| Would be interesting to see average founder who can fundraise large amounts and family income. I’d imagine they tend to come from higher income backgrounds, though could be wrong. |
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| That's pretty much exactly the calculation I'm positing. But actually with an even earlier terminus (late 30s or 40 at most).
Assume an "effective" average pay (i.e. "net" pay + retirement and other deductions, inflation-adjusted to today's dollars and averaged over the course of your career) of $120k/year. From age 22 to 40, you've earned $2.16mm in inflation-adjusted-to-today dollars as a single earner. With a not-unreasonable average savings rate of 30%, not accounting for tax-advantaged growth or any growth at all, you'll come out with $650k of inflation-adjusted-to-today capital in savings. Realistically, this should end up invested in some kind of equity (housing, stocks, bonds, whatever). If you finance the purchase of a house at 30, you're only 10 years into a traditional 30-year mortgage at this point, for reference. So you're roughly 1/3rd of your way to owning all the equity in your home. That's fairly comfortably a $1mm home (home equity being 30% of your assets at 40). Of course, if you're DCA-ing into something that yields a modest average of 5%/year in inflation-adjusted returns, that $650k is closer to $1mm inflation-adjusted-to-today capital. And you still have 25 years at that point for your retirement savings to compound. And you can work part-time in something more fulfilling until retirement to supplement your income. YMMV, but the marginal utility of money beyond $1mm in equity at 40 and $6k/month in expendable (on rental housing, food, travel, social events) income during your 20s and 30s is pretty small for most people. If you add a partner with any kind of income to the mix, it makes the marginal stress of earning more money even less appealing. Edit: the main thing you ought to avoid like the plague is lifestyle creep. Spending money on things with zero or vanishingly-small happiness ROI. Read this story every year or two, or whenever you get a raise at work. https://www.marxists.org/archive/tolstoy/1886/how-much-land-... |
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| Re: openAI
We’ll see when it happens. If I had to name a company most likely to have massive landmines buried in front of common stock cashing out, it would be at the top of the list. |
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| Tenure/cliffs/etc should already take care of that by gating access to shares/options/etc in the first place. No need to add an extra tenure complication to liquidity as well. |
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| It's not really compared to an average person's life, but in SV tradition never let the chance to subtly flaunt a wealth gap pass by freely
(This is the part where you say "Yes, having lived both |
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| The government is not monolithic and politicians might except other things than what their constituents want. It's a bad test of the value of an investment. |
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| In my industry the series A occurs in the first year of operation, and before the company has really achieved anything. A founder taking money off the table then is ludicrous. |
> As of 4 months ago I left a very successful stealth startup (which grew to 40M in ARR in two years) to become a founder and that is when it clicked - I expected to feel stressed, pressured, and the weight of all of the risk I was taking.
Please let us all know how that's working out for you in 5-10 years. 4 months in and no stress? Must be easy riding from here!