原文
原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40890847
这个故事说明了如何在现实世界中使用高中数学(特别是微积分)来帮助预测联邦快递 (FedEx) 公司的增长。 最初,由于各种主观估计,董事会对公司未来的潜在收入缺乏清晰的认识。 他们认识到需要一种更准确和客观的方法。 提出的数学模型涉及将收入 (y) 定义为时间 (t) 的函数。 该函数描述了联邦快递基于其现有客户群和每天通过投递吸引的新客户的指数级增长。 使用这个模型和微积分,他们确定了任何给定时间点的收入变化率(导数),从而了解增长趋势。 尽管正确应用了数学,但沟通不畅导致某些董事会成员对描述这一增长趋势的图表的准确性和起源产生了极大的担忧。 幸运的是,这些担忧在失去主要投资者和利益相关者的可怕后果成为现实之前得到了解决。 从本质上讲,微积分在拯救联邦快递方面发挥了关键作用。
One day at FedEx the BoD (board of directors) was concerned about the future of the company and as part of that wanted an estimate of the likely growth of the company.
In the offices there were several efforts, free-hand, wishes, hopes, guesses, what the marketing/selling people thought, etc., and none of those efforts seemed to be objective or with a foundation or rationality.
We knew the current revenue. We could make an okay estimate of revenue when all the airplanes were full. So, the problem was essentially to interpolate over time between those two numbers.
For the interpolation, how might that go? That is, what, day by day, would be driving the growth? So, notice that each day current customers would be shipping packages, and customers to be would be receiving packages and, thus, learning about FedEx and becoming customers. That is, each day the growth would be directly proportional to (1) the number of current customers creating publicity and (2) the number of customers to be receiving that publicity.
So, for some math, let t be time in days, y(t) the revenue on day t, t = 0 for the present day, and b the revenue when all the planes were full. Then for some constant of proportionality k, we have
where y'(t) = dy/dt the calculus first derivative of y(t) with respect to t.A little calculus yields the solution.
Seeing how the growth goes for several values of k, pick one that seems reasonable. Draw the graph and leave it for the BoD.That was a Friday, and the BoD meeting started at 8 AM the next day, Saturday.
First thing at the meeting, two crucial BoD members asked how the graph was drawn. For several hours, no one had an answer. The two members gave up on FedEx, got plane tickets back to Texas, returned to their rented rooms, packed, and as a last chance returned to the BoD meeting. FedEx was about to die.
I did all the work for the graph, the idea, calculus, arithmetic (HP calculator), but didn't know about the BoD meeting. Someone guessed that I did know about the graph, and I got a call and came to the meeting. The two crucial BoD members were grim, standing in the hallway with their bags packed, and their airline tickets in their shirt pockets.
I reproduced a few points on the graph, and FedEx was saved.
So, some math saved a business.