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美联储降息希望重燃，六月新屋开工/许可小幅反弹
Renewed Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Spark Modest Rebound In Housing Starts/Permits In June

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/renewed-fed-rate-cut-hopes-spark-modest-rebound-housing-startspermits-june

6 月份，新住宅建筑项目新屋开工量增长 3.0%，超出预期，建筑许可证也增长 3.4%。 这些数字较 5 月份令人失望的数字略有改善，随后又稍稍调高。 据彭博社报道，这提高了开工率和许可证的季节性调整年利率（SAAR），接近新冠疫情关闭后的水平。 然而，复苏情况并不均衡； 多单元许可证和开工申请数量激增，但单户住宅数量下降。 总体而言，由于库存问题和租赁物业需求上升，过去四个月美国房地产市场的单户住宅建设有所减少。 此外，尽管起点较弱，但完工量仍达到历史新高。 尽管如此，“如果我们建造它，他们就会购买”这句话在当前的房地产市场情况下似乎不太有效。

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原文

Housing Start s and Building Permits rose more than expected in June (+3.0% MoM and +3.4% MoM respectively) and May's disappointments were revised modestly higher too (-4.6% MoM and -2.8% MoM respectively)...

Source: Bloomberg

That lifted the SAAR totals for both starts and permits just off their COVID lockdown lows..

Source: Bloomberg

The modest rebound in permits - forward-looking - appears to have been triggered by a renaissance in Fed rate-cut hopes...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood things are very uneven with multi-family unit permits and starts soared while single-family home permits and starts both declined...

Source: Bloomberg

Not a great picture for the housing market with four straight months of declines in single-family home construction plans (inventories high) and renter nation demand growing (inflation?).

  • June single family starts -2.2% to 980K SAAR, lowest since Oct 2023

  • June multi-family starts +22% to 360K SAAR, highest since Feb 2024

  • June single-family permits -2.3% to 934K SAAR, lowest since early 2023

  • June multi-family permits +19.2% to 460K, highest since Feb 2024

And as 'Starts' languish near COVID lockdown lows, 'completions' are at their highest since Jan 2007...

"If we build them, they will buy?" is not working...

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