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美联储降息希望重燃，六月新屋开工/许可小幅反弹
Renewed Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Spark Modest Rebound In Housing Starts/Permits In June

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/renewed-fed-rate-cut-hopes-spark-modest-rebound-housing-startspermits-june

根据彭博社的数据，6 月份新开工和获批的新房数量增长超过预期。 尽管 5 月份的一些数据令人失望，但后来小幅上调，但还是出现了这种上升。 建筑许可的增加被视为领先指标，似乎与美联储降息的新希望有关。 然而，复苏主要是由公寓等多户单元的建设推动的，而单户住宅许可和开工量则有所下降。 这一趋势给房地产市场带来了充满挑战的前景，单户住宅建设项目连续四个月下降，而且由于通胀担忧，对租赁房产的需求不断增加。 单户住宅开工量下降 2.2%，经季节性调整后的年度开工量仅为 98 万套，创下 2023 年 10 月以来的最低水平。相反，多户住宅开工量飙升 22%，达到 2024 年 2 月以来的最高水平。 开工36万台。 此外，尽管单户住宅许可证申请量下降了 2.3%，但仍为 2023 年初以来的最低水平。另一方面，多户住宅许可证申请量飙升 19.2%，达到 2024 年 2 月以来的最高点。 尽管单户住宅建设增长缓慢，但这些住宅的竣工量目前处于 2007 年 1 月以来的最高水平，这对鼓励人们购买新建住宅的有效性提出了质疑。

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原文

Housing Start s and Building Permits rose more than expected in June (+3.0% MoM and +3.4% MoM respectively) and May's disappointments were revised modestly higher too (-4.6% MoM and -2.8% MoM respectively)...

Source: Bloomberg

That lifted the SAAR totals for both starts and permits just off their COVID lockdown lows..

Source: Bloomberg

The modest rebound in permits - forward-looking - appears to have been triggered by a renaissance in Fed rate-cut hopes...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood things are very uneven with multi-family unit permits and starts soared while single-family home permits and starts both declined...

Source: Bloomberg

Not a great picture for the housing market with four straight months of declines in single-family home construction plans (inventories high) and renter nation demand growing (inflation?).

  • June single family starts -2.2% to 980K SAAR, lowest since Oct 2023

  • June multi-family starts +22% to 360K SAAR, highest since Feb 2024

  • June single-family permits -2.3% to 934K SAAR, lowest since early 2023

  • June multi-family permits +19.2% to 460K, highest since Feb 2024

And as 'Starts' languish near COVID lockdown lows, 'completions' are at their highest since Jan 2007...

"If we build them, they will buy?" is not working...

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