中央计划的傲慢:吉姆·格兰特的教训
The Hubris Of Central Planning: A Lesson From Jim Grant

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hubris-central-planning-lesson-jim-grant

在本周的货币金属周中备忘录中,主持人迈克·马哈雷 (Mike Maharrey) 讨论了由于人类知识有限和生活的不可预测性而导致中央计划面临的挑战。 马哈雷引用了经济学家弗里德里希·哈耶克的《知识在社会中的运用》,强调了哈耶克的“知识问题”,并解释说没有一个人拥有做出明智的经济决策所需的全部数据。 然后,他谈到了金融分析师吉姆·格兰特对美联储货币政策的批评,并将其比作抛硬币,表明他们的决策过程缺乏精确性。 从历史上看,1953 年德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔 (Dwight D. Eisenhower) 总统上任时,联邦政策制定者将重点放在财政责任和恢复美元相对于黄金的价值上。 与此形成鲜明对比的是,现任美联储大力干预经济事务,导致市场操纵加剧和经济失调。 马哈雷在批评美联储的管理风格时指出,他们的利率预测准确率一直很差,只有 38% 的正确率,并认为他们的决定似乎更具投机性,而不是有证据支持。 他对杰罗姆·鲍威尔作为主席的有效性以及美联储政策对未来潜在经济危机的总体影响表示担忧。 马哈里敦促投资者和政策制定者在做出预测时保持谦逊,并主张从历史中学习,了解经济趋势,同时为任何可能发生的情况保持谨慎的准备。 作为预防措施,他建议将黄金和白银等贵金属保留在您的投资组合中,以在市场动荡时期保护自己。 听众可以联系货币金属交易所,进一步探索这些机会。 总之,该消息鼓励通过货币金属平台随时了解情况,并收听他们的定期播客,以获取与贵金属行业和更广泛的经济趋势相关的宝贵见解。 最后,马哈雷提醒大家不要自满,即使目前看起来稳定,也并不一定意味着可以免受即将到来的风险的影响。 对更深入分析感兴趣的读者应查阅货币金属网站并订阅更新和播客。

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原文

Via MoneyMetals.com,

In the latest episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey delved into the perils of central planning and the inherent limitations of human knowledge, drawing on insights from economist Friedrich Hayek and financial expert Jim Grant. 

The episode offered a critical examination of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy.

Planning in Uncertainty

Maharrey began with personal anecdotes to illustrate the unpredictability of life. He shared stories of a day disrupted by a flat tire and an unexpected plumbing issue during a home renovation, underscoring the theme that "you don't know what you don't know." This unpredictability, he argued, is a fundamental flaw in central economic planning.

The Knowledge Problem

Maharrey referenced Friedrich Hayek's seminal work, "The Use of Knowledge in Society," to explain why central planning is doomed to fail. Hayek's "knowledge problem" posits that no central planner can possess all the information necessary to make informed economic decisions. Hayek wrote, "The knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess."

Jim Grant's Critique of Central Planning

Maharrey highlighted an interview with Jim Grant on Fox Business, where Grant criticized the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.

Grant described central planning as "the ignorance that knows not it’s ignorant," a phenomenon where policymakers fail to recognize the limits of their knowledge.

He stressed the importance of markets in discovering interest rates rather than having them imposed by central authorities.

Grant also pointed out the flaws in the Federal Reserve's interest rate projections, noting that they are accurate only 38% of the time, which Maharrey compared to flipping a coin.

This statistic underscores the speculative nature of central banking decisions.

In the interview, Grant made a compelling point: "Assumptions are harmless as long as the assuming party doesn’t confuse them with foreknowledge."

Historical Perspective

To provide context, Maharrey reflected on the contrasting attitudes of policymakers in 1953, the first year of President Dwight D. Eisenhower's administration. At that time, there was a commitment to balancing the budget and restoring the dollar to gold convertibility. Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin lauded the free market and emphasized that fixed interest rates and economic dysfunction were not part of American institutions.

In contrast, today's Federal Reserve is deeply involved in manipulating markets and interest rates. Maharrey pointed out that despite their confidence, central planners are inevitably blind to the full consequences of their actions, leading to economic dysfunction.

"The future is a phenomenon both strange and wondrous though it doesn’t exist unless we reckon with it," Grant remarked, highlighting the unpredictability of economic outcomes.

The Current Economic Climate

Maharrey criticized the current mindset that the Federal Reserve has everything under control, attributing the stock market's highs to easy money policies rather than effective economic governance. He argued that the apparent stability over the past two decades has given people a false sense of security, ignoring the underlying issues that could lead to future economic crises.

Maharrey expressed significant skepticism about Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve's ability to manage the economy effectively. He argued that central planners, including Powell, are often overly confident in their ability to predict and control economic outcomes, despite lacking the necessary comprehensive knowledge. 

Maharrey emphasized that "they don’t know what they don’t know," highlighting the inherent unpredictability and complexity of economic systems.

He pointed out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate projections are only accurate 38% of the time, suggesting that their decisions are more speculative than scientific. Maharrey was critical of the Fed's past and current policies, including the handling of the 2008 financial crisis and the response to the pandemic, which he believes have led to long-term economic instability.

Maharrey also criticized the mainstream investment world for treating Fed officials like "demigods handing down wisdom from on high," despite their frequent inaccuracies and failures. He argued that the Fed's current monetary policies, including interest rate manipulation, are based on hubris and a false sense of certainty, leading to potential future economic crises.

The Importance of Humility

Maharrey echoed Grant's advice for investors and policymakers to approach their predictions with humility. Grant reminded us that the future is uncertain and that past successes do not guarantee future accuracy. Maharrey emphasized that understanding historical economic trends and fundamentals can help make more informed predictions, but one must always remain cautious and prepared for unexpected events. 

"Hubris almost always gets you in trouble," Maharrey warned, reflecting on Grant's insights about exaggerated pride and self-confidence.

Preparing for Uncertainty

In conclusion, Maharrey stressed the importance of having a safe haven like gold and silver in one's investment portfolio to hedge against economic uncertainty. He encouraged listeners to contact Money Metals Exchange to explore opportunities in precious metals, especially during periods of market volatility.

Final Thoughts

Maharrey wrapped up the episode by inviting listeners to stay informed through Money Metals' various platforms and to tune in to their regular podcasts for more insights into the precious metals markets and economic trends. "Just because nothing bad has happened yet doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen," Maharrey cautioned, urging a proactive approach to financial preparedness.

For more detailed insights, listeners are encouraged to visit the Money Metals website and subscribe to the updates and podcasts.

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