“增长恐慌”引发降息希望激增,股市、原油和债券收益率暴跌
Stocks, Crude, & Bond Yields Plunge As 'Growth Scare' Sparks Surge In Rate-Cut Hopes

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-crude-bond-yields-plunge-growth-scare-sparks-surge-rate-cut-hopes

正如我们本周早些时候警告的那样,宏观策略已转向“坏就是坏,好就是好”,因为“增长恐慌”叙事现在主导了固定的降息情景。 今天上午的非农就业数据是“坏消息”,因此我们看到降息预期急剧上升,目前已计入 2024 年的四次以上全面降息……资料来源:彭博社 这导致国债收益率大幅暴跌……尤其是在短期端,2年期国债收益率惊人地下降了29个基点,回到4.00%以下)……但股市不喜欢“非软着陆”的说法……原油价格也暴跌……但黄金延续了本周的涨势(美元温和走低)...美元日元延续跌势(日元兑美元走强)......目前处于 1997 年以来的最超卖水平...距离美联储讲话还有多久 转向鸽派并适应市场的新叙述(请记住美联储“DOTS”在 2024 年仍处于 2 次降息)。

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原文

Just as we warned earlier in the week, the macro playbook has shifted to "bad is bad and good is good" as 'growth scare' narratives now dominate the set-in-stone rate-cut scenarios.

This morning's payrolls data was 'bad news' and so we see rate-cut expectations explode higher with over four full cuts now priced in for 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

This prompted a massive plunge in Treasury bond yields...

...especially at the short-end with 2Y yields dropping a stunning 29bps, back below 4.00%)...

...but stocks don't like the 'not-soft-landing' narrative...

Crude oil prices also plunged...

But gold extended the week's gains (as the dollar dovishly limped lower)...

USDJPY extended its decline (yen strengthening versus the dollar)...

...now at its most oversold since 1997...

How long before FedSpeak will drift dovish and adjust to the market's new narrative (remember The Fed 'DOTS' are still at 2 cuts in 2024).

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