特朗普第二届政府的国家安全
National Security In A Second Trump Administration

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/national-security-second-trump-administration

丹·格林伍德 (Dan Greenwood) 的选后分析预测,唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 可能会赢得连任,并在民意调查中保持领先地位。 格林伍德认为,特朗普在第一个任期内对国家安全的态度为我们了解另一届特朗普政府可能会带来什么带来影响。 具体而言,美国将更加重视经济和技术主导地位,特别是在与中国的竞争中。 该战略的关键要素包括解决中国盗窃美国知识产权的问题、控制关键矿产、减少低价出口以及解决中国普遍存在的不当行为。 此外,保护美国的技术优势和经济利益将是重中之重。 值得注意的是,两党对于中国构成的威胁已达成共识,特朗普的目标是维护和加强美国的技术和创新优势。 此外,贸易关税和出口管制可能会扩大,例如对中国商品征收更高的关税,并向盟友施压,要求其遵守我们对中国的规定。 特朗普政府一直积极利用美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)审查外国投资威胁,这是他第一个任期的战略重点。 其他行动可能包括加强美国外国投资委员会的审查、扩大美国外国投资委员会对军事基地附近房地产的管辖权,以及采取措施尽量减少中国对美国大学和研究中心的学术影响。 此外,特朗普希望增加国防开支,以恢复美国的军事实力,特别关注增强海军能力、投资人工智能和量子科学等新兴技术,以及升级国内造船厂以供国防和民用。 最后,特朗普设想与北约等盟国建立更强有力的全球伙伴关系,但希望他们为自己的防御提供更多的财政贡献。 总体而言,特朗普的第二个任期可能意味着美国国防能力的持续进步,重点是对抗中国崛起的力量。

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原文

Authored by Dan Greenwood via RealClearPolitics,

After a tumultuous and nearly life-ending July, Donald Trump narrowly retains his lead in the polls. Business leaders would be wise to prepare for a second Trump administration. 

As someone detailed to serve in the White House during my time in the Marine Corps, I know firsthand what national security policy means to President Trump. The 2017 National Security Strategy, Trump’s first-term policies, and his words in and out of office are the best indicators of what a second Trump administration agenda would entail. This amounts to a more expansive view of national security, one that stresses U.S. economic and technological primacy. Great power competition with China would dominate.

A Trump administration would no longer permit China to steal U.S. intellectual property or undercut our industries. Rather, the U.S. would aim to blunt Chinese control of critical minerals and commodities, and end exports here at fire sale prices. Pervasive Chinese misconduct would be met with a vigilant response. Protecting our technological advantages and economic interests would become paramount.  

The threat posed by China is already a bipartisan concern. This is one area where Republicans and Democrats have previously cooperated across the aisle.

Trump will prioritize sustaining and growing America’s technological and innovative edge. Expect him to leverage the power of government to the advantage of U.S. workers and industry, especially in manufacturing. Here, a second Trump term will likely build upon first-term tariffs and export controls.

The past stands as a prelude. In March 2018, President Trump exercised his authority under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. He set a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. His administration also imposed Section 301 tariffs on more than $300 billion worth of goods from China.

A Trump second term would likely double down on these actions. Many observers project increased tariffs on Chinese goods. A second Trump administration would also likely pressure our European and Indo-Pacific allies to mirror our export control and sanctions regimes vis-à-vis China. President Trump understands that technological supremacy is key to national security.

During his first term, he made a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) a strategic imperative. In 2018, he signed into law the expansive Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA), the most comprehensive CFIUS reform since 2007. Among many CFIUS actions, in early March 2020, he directed a Beijing company and its Hong Kong-based subsidiary to divest their interests in StayNTouch, Inc., a U.S. mobile technology and property-management systems company.

Looking forward, a second Trump Administration would increase CFIUS investigations and declarations while expanding CFIUS oversight to include real estate near military bases and installations. As Trump sees things, China cannot be permitted to endanger national security through seemingly innocuous transactions.

Beyond that, Trump 2.0 will likely focus on Chinese efforts at intellectual espionage and influence at American universities. In 2020, Trump issued his Proclamation on the Suspension of Entry as Nonimmigrants of Certain Students and Researchers from the People’s Republic of China, aiming to prevent U.S. campuses from becoming incubators for the next generation of our adversaries. Future actions will seek to secure our national laboratories and national security-related research programs. 

Trump’s America First vision isn’t isolationism. Rather, it is a rational course of action for advancing U.S. interests while securing the country’s economic and national security priorities, and those of our allies.

If reelected, Trump will likely demand that NATO’s members increase their defense spending. But directing Europeans to take a greater role in defending themselves is different than abandoning a historic alliance, something Trump won’t do.

A Trump administration would look to build on the 2021 Trilateral agreement between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. (AUKUS). This would bolster U.S. interests in the Pacific as we seek to stand toe-to-toe with China across a broad range of issues. The Pacific is not a Chinese lake. Expanding AUKUS to include Japan and South Korea, even if through bilateral agreements, would be likely.  

AUKUS illustrates Trump’s focus on foreign military sales (FMS) and their positive impact on the economy, the defense industrial base, and allied interoperability.

President Trump will likely demand record defense spending. Restoring America’s strength comes first; deficit hawks must take a backseat.

During his first term, President Trump stabilized and added predictability to defense spending with the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act. Subsequent years saw ever-increasing defense funding, and this would continue in a second Trump term with particular emphasis on shipbuilding, aircraft, autonomous systems, and long-range weapons.

During his final year in office, Trump sought $34.7 billion to grow and modernize the Navy’s fleet, the largest request of its kind in more than 20 years. Trump’s America First philosophy will both continue to expand our naval capacity and reinvigorate our shipyards for defense and commercial purposes.

Trump’s defense budgets will also include robust investments in artificial intelligence and quantum sciences, areas vital for both U.S. economic and national security. A new Trump administration will invest heavily in funding critical technology research and development at the Pentagon, national laboratories, and private industry. Losing the AI and quantum races to China carries grave national security implications.

Hyperbole and rhetoric will dominate the airwaves for the final three months of the presidential campaign. But business leaders who anticipate the policy-rich national security landscape a second Trump administration promises will be well-positioned to reap the benefits. 

Dan Greenwood served as deputy assistant to President Trump and deputy director of the White House Office of Legislative Affairs from 2017-2019. He previously served as the senior director for Legislative Affairs at the National Security Council. He is a principal at the BGR Group, a Washington, D.C.–based lobbying and communications firm where he leads the Defense and Critical Technologies practice. 

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