选民身份法对 2024 年选举有何影响?
What Effect Will Voter ID Laws Have In The 2024 Election?

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/what-effect-will-voter-id-laws-have-2024-election

截至 2023 年秋季,约一半的美国成年公民(约 5000 万)居住在实行严格选民身份法的州。 这些规定要求投票站出示政府签发的带照片的身份证件,自上次美国总统大选以来,这些规定在另外四个州收紧了。 更严格的选民身份法的实施影响了近 1000 万合格选民,对政治团体的影响尤为严重,其中包括 2300 万登记的民主党人、1570 万共和党人和 1050 万独立人士。 然而,过去吸引和动员选民的努力似乎减轻了这些限制性措施对总体投票率的影响。 选民身份的话题仍然存在分歧,争论的焦点包括选举日验证身份的必要性以及对可访问性的担忧,尤其是对弱势社区而言。 严格的选民身份政策主要存在于南部和中西部各州,最近内布拉斯加州、阿肯色州、北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州发生了变化。 一些州虽然在投票时要求提供带照片的身份证件,但如果个人缺乏合适的身份证件,则提供替代方法进行投票,例如提供签名的宣誓书或与投票站工作人员匹配签名。 也可以进行临时选票,但需在规定的时间内进行验证。 某些例外情况适用于因健康问题、宗教信仰或特殊情况而面临困难的选民。 在德克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州,缺乏带照片身份证件的选民必须填写一份“合理障碍”声明,列举任何被认为可以接受的障碍,这表明这些州选民身份证件规定的模糊性。

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原文

Since the last presidential election in the United States, four states have implemented strict photo ID laws at the polls, bringing the count of places with these types of laws to 10. Additionally, three more states have made their ID laws stricter and in one state, such a change was blocked by courts.

Around 29 million Americans of voting age live in states where voter ID laws were tightened, while the number of those living under strict photo ID requirements rose from fewer than 30 million to more than 50 million. Research by the University of Maryland shows that as of the fall of 2023, almost 50 million Americans or around 20 percent of adults citizens were estimated to not have a valid driver's license or at least not one with their current name or address on it, among them 23 million Democrats, 15.7 million Republicans and 10.5 million Independents.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, combining these numbers means that around 10 million voting-age adults could be negatively affected by photo ID laws in November 2024

Infographic: What Effect Will Voter ID Laws Have in the 2024 Election? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Other research, however, shows that party mobilization and outreach have successfully compensated for these negative effects on voter turnout in the past.

Voter ID laws, specifically those strictly requiring photo ID, are a contentious topic. 

While proponents say that bringing official and easy-to-verify identification on election day should be a no-brainer, the lack of a uniform national ID system in the U.S. means that some people do not have a photo ID. This most often affects poor and otherwise marginalized people as well as people of color, which has led to the topic of voter ID having become a partisan one in the country.

Most states that currently have strict photo ID law for voting are in the Southern United States or the Midwest. New laws were passed in the last four years in Nebraska, Arkansas, North Carolina and Ohio, while they have existed for longer in Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee, among other. A bigger group of states requests photo ID at the polls, but voters without it can use a workaround, for example signing a sworn affidavit or other document or have their signature matched by a clerk. Even states with strict photo ID laws mostly allow voting a provisional ballot and bringing in ID by a specific deadline as well as some exception in case voters have specific impairments, objections on religious grounds or others.

In Texas and South Carolina, this line between exception and workaround has been increasingly blurred, showing the tug-of-war that surrounds U.S. voter ID laws. Voters in both states who do not have photo ID can fill out a reasonable impediment declaration. While this sounds like voters will need to prove that they qualify for an exception, the cause can be any "obstacle you find reasonable", the South Carolina Election Commission informs. In Texas, the situation is similar.

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