中国面临1999年以来最严重的通货紧缩
China Faces Worst Deflationary Streak Since 1999

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-faces-worst-deflationary-streak-1999

上周出现了三个关键见解: 1.前央行行长易纲承认,中国正面临1999年以来最严重的通货紧缩时期。他建议立即采取行动应对这一问题,强调需要现在而不是稍后解决通货紧缩压力。 这与中国人民银行目前在货币宽松方面表现出克制的做法不同。 迄今为止,不同优先事项之间的竞争已经拖延了中国对抗通货紧缩的斗争。 出于对货币疲软和银行利润率的担忧,中国人民银行对大幅降息持谨慎态度。 周四,就连中国人民银行货币政策司司长也对进一步下调存贷款利率表示谨慎。 相反,央行可能会选择在采取其他行动之前降低银行的准备金要求。 2. 恐惧和悲观情绪弥漫全球金融市场,投资者认为中国经济困境即将结束的希望渺茫。 尽管由于美联储未来降息的预期,人民币暂时得到提振,但整体负面情绪继续主导股市和债市。 上周,基准沪深300指数触及2月初以来的最低点,恰逢中国在市场低迷期间更换股市监管机构的领导者。 包括摩根大通、瑞银全球财富管理和野村证券在内的多家投资公司放弃了对中国股票的买入建议。 尽管中国央行不断抵制,投资者仍纷纷涌向政府债券,导致交易最频繁的10年期债券的收益率在周三创下历史新低。 中国人民银行似乎采取了干预措施来遏制这一趋势。 3. 为了应对持续的通货紧缩和房地产业的衰退,中国可能会从迅速降低抵押贷款利率中受益。 金融当局正在考虑将全国抵押贷款利率下调约 80 个基点,并可能在未来几周内进行初步下调。 5 月,中国人民银行放松了抵押贷款监管,同时提供约 420 亿美元的资金用于购买未售出的房产。 然而,此举未能显着改善房屋销售,导致彭博开发商股票指数下跌33%。 通过瞄准现有

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原文

By John Liu and Zheng Wu, Bloomberg markets live reporters and strategist

Three things we learned last week:

1. China’s former central bank chief made a rare admission that the nation should tackle deflation. The economy faces its worst deflationary streak since 1999, putting pressure on corporate profits, wages and asset prices.

China should focus on fighting deflationary pressure now, former Governor Yi Gang said in Shanghai on Friday. The unambiguous message contrasts with the People’s Bank of China’s restrained efforts in monetary easing so far. The PBOC has repeatedly signaled it would refrain from any “drastic easing.”

Competing priorities have hampered China’s fight against deflation up to now. The PBOC has been reluctant to cut interest rates aggressively because of concerns about currency weakness and banks’ profit margins.

Illustrating that tension, the head of the PBOC’s monetary policy department cautioned on Thursday about constraints on decreasing deposit and lending rates further. The central bank may be inclined to reduce banks’ reserve requirements before acting again to cut its policy rate.

* * *

2. Bearish sentiment intensified in financial markets as investors saw no near-term escape from China’s economic malaise. Although the yuan got a boost from anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the month, risk-off sentiment remained dominant in equity and bond markets.

The benchmark CSI 300 index declined to the lowest level since early February, when China unexpectedly replaced the chief of its stock-market watchdog amid a market selloff.

JPMorgan Chase last week abandoned its buy recommendation for Chinese stocks, following similar moves by former China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management and Nomura.

Investors again piled into government bonds despite the PBOC’s constant pushback. The yield on the most actively traded 10-year government bond touched the lowest level on record Wednesday. There were signs that PBOC once again stepped in to curb the rally.

3. Moving quickly to cut mortgage rates may be China’s best shot to fight persistent deflation and the property slump. Financial regulators proposed reducing rates on outstanding mortgages nationwide by a total of about 80 basis points, and the first cut may come in the next few weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.

In May, the PBOC relaxed mortgage rules and made available 300 billion yuan ($42 billion) of funding to buy unsold homes. A Bloomberg index of Chinese developer stocks has dropped more than a third since then as the rescue efforts failed to lift home sales.

Existing homeowners were left out, as the steps taken in May mostly benefited new buyers. The new plan targets existing borrowers and may be the PBOC’s best chance to shift market sentiment.

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