This is a significant win for the US, and just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy passed over the past few years.

US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated, and we in the US are going to be building our own future both for chips and for energy security.

This is great news, and we should celebrate.

One thing that I think that frequently eludes people in this discussion is that US manufacturing has pretty much been constantly growing for the past century; just its share of GDP has fallen as other sectors have grown faster. And the share of the workforce has fallen even faster, as the actual manufacturing has moved towards higher value items and greater degrees of automation.

I think the actual outcome of this policy is mixed. I think it was a big case of corporate welfare that will result in somewhat increased chip production in the US. I think this is a win for national security. I don't think the government applying such levers to change how the market allocates capital probably won't be a win for economic output or quality of life.

The last part is missing something important though. If we're measuring "output" in dollars and the US is doing the parts (like aircraft manufacturing) that globally don't have a lot of competitors, the high "output" is from high prices rather than high production, and then what we're doing is surviving in the markets where there isn't a lot of competition and getting killed in the markets where there is.

There are three problems with this. The first is that it implies the US isn't competitive in competitive markets, which is a sign that something is very messed up. The second is that the markets where other countries aren't competitive tend to get eroded over time. The US essentially had a lock on the auto market in the mid-20th century; not anymore. What happens when China starts making globally competitive aircraft?

And the third is that supply chains matter. If you give up on the low margin stuff instead of figuring out how to make it competitively domestically (e.g. via automation) then foreign competitors have a leg up when it comes to making the high margin stuff for which the commodities are inputs.

> I don't think the government applying such levers to change how the market allocates capital probably won't be a win for economic output or quality of life.

Relying on "free markets" actually requires free markets. If other countries are willing to subsidize their industries until they drive manufacturing out of the US, that's not a free market. It's the equivalent of a monopolist using dumping and tying to leverage their existing monopoly into new markets, but with a country acting as the monopolist and therefore being exempt from antitrust enforcement.

Doing the same thing in return is not likely to be an efficient strategy, but neither is the status quo. The main alternative would be to realize that the thing we've been calling "free trade" is not actually that and a country that subsidizes its industries until its US competitors exit the market has to be dealt with as an abusive monopolist, e.g. via tariffs and similar policy levers, since antitrust laws don't apply to foreign governments.

Take cars - https://www.bts.gov/content/annual-us-motor-vehicle-producti... US production is up greatly in 2019 (that is before Covid - the chart doesn't have after Covid numbers to work with). US production is up by a lot since 1960. However in 1960 the US population was lower, and your typical family only had one car (women often didn't even have a drivers license). Thus you see market share is down while production is up.

Though we are making more total cars, were making a smaller percentage of all cars sold.

As another commenter pointed out, the cars we make today are amalgamation of parts and design work done overseas. That isn't necessarily a bad thing if you view globalization favorably, but it is another factor when considering the value created in the US with regards to vehicle production.

They neutralize the subsidy's effect on pricing and prevent the subsidizer from taking over your market, at least.

> It has been my understanding that tariffs typically end up being tit-for-tat and relatively zero-sum.

The subsidy is already a tit, the tariff is tat. Zero-sum is at least better than just taking the blow and having a negative-sum outcome for yourself.

Why is someone else subsidizing the price of a thing you buy bad?

The subsidy is doing you a favor by reducing your input costs, or freeing up your work and capital to produce something else.

From a national security standpoint this can be deadly in a hot conflict.

From an industrial strategy standpoint, it’s the same as any other monopolist practice - they will erode your base, take over your market, then raise prices to fleece your population’s wealth while increasing their own.

Industrial bases are economic strongholds that shouldn’t be lost, particularly not to great power competitors.

What about a cold conflict? How much do the tariffs and protectionist policies cost in the middle to long run?

For example, the Jones Act costs billions per year and has been going on for a lot of years. How many additional aircraft carriers and submarines and so on could the US have bought with that money?

The net effect is merely a net transfer from the foreign government to the domestic one.

Tariffs that go BEYOND the subsidies in the foreign country has a net protectionist effect. This CAN cause stagnation in the industry in question. But less so if there is still healthy domestic competition.

Subsidies are potentially the most destructive measure. This is especially true for protectionist subsidies, and less so for export subsidies. But in general, subsides sets up a cash transfer facility between a government and local industry, often removing incentives to innovate. In turn, this means that the subsidies need to increase year by year to have the desired effect.

This can lead to the subsidized industry dying a sudden death once public patience for the growing subisides (and so the subisides themselves) come to an end.

The book calls it “export discipline”, that is, you keep the subsidised firms on their toes by demanding them to be exporters and win the global market, thus making them remain competitive.

Losing your industrial base and giving it away to a geopolitical competitor is almost certainly an error in the long run.

Large industrial bases also are correlated with healthier middle class societies, according to Vaclav Smil, and in my experience, he’s exactly right.

So losing the industrial base is fine for you, a service sector worker, but it’s bad for the country and it’s bad for society, if you want it to have a healthy middle class.

The ones who are most hurt by tariffs, most affected by higher prices, are the working class. Sure, the workers of the specific industries that are lucky enough to be protected, the ones with the most persuasive lobbies, will certainly benefit. But every other worker will be a little worse off.

If you are concerned about the people who got hurt by globalization, maybe the government should collect money from people like us and spend it on people like them. They can set up the tax in such a way that rich people pay the most.

But if you use tariffs to help the people who got hurt by globalization, you cannot set it up in such a careful way. It's a blunt instrument that hurts productivity across the board and increases the prices to the end consumer. It becomes an implicit tax that poor people pay the most. An actual explicit tax would hurt much less.

Perhaps in the short to medium term, the people who had their livelihoods decimated and partially compensated for the decline in their standard of living by buying cheap imported products, will be most affected.

But tariffs should be a component of a longer term plan of tradeoffs to revitalize the protected industries.

> If you are concerned about the people who got hurt by globalization, maybe the government should collect money from people like us and spend it on people like them.

That idea is past its sell-by date. It's the neoliberal Democrat's response to the economic damage done by globalization: put the losers on welfare indefinitely. IMHO, that money should be

> Should be...?

Sorry. Should be used to offset any short-term difficulties caused by tariffs, that occur as part of a longer term plan.

You don't see the point of building up, say, your domestic chip building capacity? Really?

>Take a look at Russia, they are sanctioned by half the planet and they still keep going on a reduced industry because they had huge stockpiles of tanks

Russia can "keep going" because they have vast reserves of fossil fuels that Europe, currently, can't live without.

I wouldn't say it's unfair, if other countries actually value domestic manufacturing then they'll provide the subsidies and incentives to cultivate it.

Incentivize it by…taxing imported manufactured goods, for example, to make the domestic manufacturers more competitive?

That’s the plan.

Even if the US lost capacity to build, EVs arent such advanced technology that manufacturing couldn't return if the conditions were right.

Manufacturing isn't something you can just turn on like a computer program. It takes time develop the infrastructure, talented labor and product designs. For something like cars we're talking about many years. It took China decades of concerted effort and heavy subsidies to get where they are now. Without subsidies, starting this process takes even longer and may even be impossible.

Accordingly, if you already have this industrial capacity it would be mind blisteringly moronic to let it slip away from you. What can be destroyed in a few years will take many more years to build back, and won't be built back at all unless you reverse the moronic policies that let it get away from you in the first place.

And in the context of massive trade deficits, so what? IIRC, when the Trump tariffs went into effect, there was a lot written that the Chinese didn't have many levers to pull to respond, because of the US trade deficit. I think they implemented a tariff against soybeans (and some other non-tariff actions), and that was about it.

> To say nothing of who actually pays the cost of tarrifs.[0][1]

Who cares who technically pays, especially when they're correcting for some other market distortion? Focusing on that is a hallmark of libertarian anti-tariff propaganda that's pretty monomaniacally focused on free trade dogma and prices to the exclusion of all other considerations.

I was thinking more in the context of consumer inflation. Countries tend to go back and forth in a tariff war, effectively raising taxes and lowering incomes for their citizens.

> I was thinking more in the context of consumer inflation. Countries tend to go back and forth in a tariff war, effectively raising taxes and lowering incomes for their citizens.

That's monomaniacal focus on short-term "prices to the exclusion of all other considerations." An artificially low subsidized price isn't a good deal, especially when its competing with your local industry.

Then one generation later it all bloes up in your face, destroying your democracy .. but you get to pretend your actions where innocent . its just like the weather , cant do anything about that ..

I'd like my critical supply chains to be in North America. Ideally, I'd have a free trade zone with Mexico and Canada. Tariffs, two-sided, reduce trade, and bring me closer to that reality. I'm okay paying slightly more for that security.

I'd like the same thing in the EU too, and in other major world blocks.

There's a slight efficiency gain from specialization, where each country brings a skillset, but it's totally not worth it to me versus the brittleness which comes with it.

Remember how the Covid supply chain disruptions cascaded? That's a tiny fraction of a really bad natural disaster.

Because the US is a huge market, and if you can't sell your goods here competitively (because tariffs price you out), it hurts your business. It's a negotiating tool.

That pretty much sums up all economic policy honestly. It will always be tit for tat since one aide can only respond to the other and doesn't directly control their economy.

> ...supply chains matter.

A corollary (?) is that competency matters too.

The outsourcing mania forfeited vertical integration to please Wall St. Collateral damage included knowledge, culture, and ability to innovate.

> ...not likely to be an efficient strategy

Per principle of no free lunch, greater efficiency at the expense of resiliency.

> ...tariffs and similar policy levers...

Yup. The Rudyard Kipling School of Economics doesn't acknowledge realpolitik, will to power, balance of trade, finance, labor relations, foreign interests, etc.

The Econ 101 glasses give a very myopic view of the world. It's just an introductory model for a very complicated system.

It goes on and on. The majority of what has been outsourced to China (and Taiwan and Singapore and India and Vietnam) is the "face" of high tech electronics, and the majority of electronic piece parts components, but not final assembly and not much of the tricky stuff. I don't think we'll see a quick ramp of high-vol/low-mix mfg coming back anytime soon because too much of the supply chain is in Asia, but it could if there were sufficient demand.

None of the things you mentioned come even close in terms of complexity, on a per cubic volume basis at least.

There are reams of economic literature trying to estimate whether government intervention in the market was a good idea. Most of the time it doesn't turn out great. So the parent's suggestion "probably won't be a win for economic output" is a pretty safe bet.

Often governments will use "security" as an argument to keep steel, shipbuilding, etc, in the country. That argument is not really possible to evaluate on economic grounds.

As an analogy: weapons manufacturers do well when there's a war on, too, but that doesn't mean war is good for prosperity.

You are answering specifics with generalities.

If Taiwan didn't support and nurture TSMC so that today it's a national champion that prints money, what development path do you think they could have taken that would've brought at least the same economic success? Please be specific.

I can't predict specifically what other things would have happened. If people could do these kinds of predictions well, maybe central planning would actually work?

Does Soviet-style central planning work? It didn't seem to work well in the few societies that really tried it.

Dos all planning fail? Seems unlikely, given the amount of fairly centralized planning that went on (and still goes on today) in East Asian countries, countries that are the rare "success stories" of developmental economics.

In fact the original East Asian success story was Meiji-era Japan, basically the only society outside of the West that managed to industrialize itself during the 19th century. And if one sits down to read a history book one quickly realizes that what the Meiji government did was highly top-down and planned with the explicit goal to catch up to the European colonial powers. It did not resemble classical laissez-faire economics.

I said that planning and forecasting is _hard_, and that _I_ can't tell you on the spot what counterfactually would have replaced TSMC. Many different options are possible. Or perhaps TSMC would have still happened, but in a different way.

> In fact the original East Asian success story was Meiji-era Japan, basically the only society outside of the West that managed to industrialize itself during the 19th century. And if one sits down to read a history book one quickly realizes that what the Meiji government did was highly top-down and planned with the explicit goal to catch up to the European colonial powers. It did not resemble classical laissez-faire economics.

If I have an ailment and go to a chiropractor to fix that ailment, and later my ailment goes away, that doesn't necessarily mean that the chiropractor helped. In fact, those guys are dangerous and more likely to make things worse.

For another Japanese example, see how eg Sony had to fight and dodge the much vaunted MITI more often than not, especially in the beginning. (Sorry, I'm not up to date on all the Meiji-era stuff. It's a fascinating period of history, though!)

---

Just to be clear, central planning can 'work' up to a point; it doesn't necessarily lead to famine. Eg seen on its own East Germany was the most successful socialist economy ever. Out of the ashes of war torn quarter-country they rebuilt a reasonably high standard of living---the highest among all socialist countries, and pretty decent by global standards---all while paying enormous war reparations to the Soviet Union. (I was born in East Germany.)

Their system had many aspect of Soviet-style central planning. But over most of its life the regime wasn't nearly as totalitarian as Stalin's Soviet Union.

It's just that East Germany pales compared to more market oriented West Germany. (And West Germany pales compared to even more market oriented Switzerland.)

Mostly, a big part of the book is just a warming up of the tired 'Infant Industry argument'. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant_industry_argument

For now, have a look at https://mises.org/journal-libertarian-studies/prejudice-free... to get an alternative look at Malaysia, one of the recurring example in 'How Asia Works'. (That paper is also just a really good read by itself.)

I don't particularly like Noah Smith (he's also in favour of protectionism and 'industrial policy'), but his https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-polandmalaysia-model has some good points also about Malaysia.

https://www.amazon.com/Just-Get-Out-Way-Government/dp/193086... is an alternative view at development economics. The title is a bit provocative, (even the author wasn't really happy with it, when I had a chat with him about it). The main thesis of the book is that honest and competent civil servants are the most rare and precious resource a country has, especially a poor one, so policies should economies on their labour.

So eg you should privatise a state-owned company by auctioning it off in one piece to the highest cash-bidder open to all comers from anywhere, no questions asked. Instead of having your civil servants set up a complex system or worse trying to evaluate proposed business plans. Complexity breeds corruption in the worst case, and in the best case still takes up civil servants' limited time.

Directly about 'How Asia Works' https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-how-asia-works mentions some critiques in the 'Conclusion' section. See also https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/book-review-h...

Yeah:

> On a trip to Turkey in 2018, I read How Asia Works, by Joe Studwell. Despite the fact that it didn’t get everything right, it’s probably the best nonfiction book I’ve ever read.

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-developing-country-industr...

> As any longtime reader of mine will know, my favorite book about economic development is Joe Studwell’s How Asia Works. If you haven’t read this book, you should definitely remedy that. In the meantime, you can start with Scott Alexander’s excellent summary.

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-studwell-got-wrong

The book goes over what actually happened: it's not theory, it's history. What worked in each country (often the same/similar things), the variations, and where things were tried but went badly (often with analysis on why).

Alas, in the absence of randomised controlled experiments, it's very hard to infer causality purely from observations. You need a theory to guide you. But observations are still extremely useful, of course.

Just because countries did X and Y happened later, doesn't necessarily tell you X causes Y. In addition to the usual causation vs correlation dilemma, in economics you can even have what looks like reverse causation that goes back in time, because intelligent actors anticipate the future.

(Silly example, if there's a clear sky, and you see many people carrying raincoats and umbrellas, it's likely to rain later. But that doesn't mean that umbrellas cause rain.)

Many of the successful countries in 'How Asia Works' share some ethnic similarities. (Eg many have at least sizeable Chinese minorities or have outright Chinese majorities.) Many of the success stories also have some land reform in their past. The author decided that the latter 'worked' (ie was a causal factor), and ignores the former as perhaps a mere coincidence. Similarly, the author decided that the bouts of industrial policy and protectionism are praiseworthy causal factors.

He almost arbitrarily excludes Singapore as purely a financial centre, even though we have a pretty diversified economy these days, and in the past during the fast catch up growth, we weren't a global financial hub yet. That early development owes much more to the typical 'sweatshop' model that we see in many successful industrialisers, ie (light) manufacturing for export.

And yet it describes the historical record of several countries (in the case of Japan, how they did it twice: post-Meiji Restoration and post-WW2).

It goes over countries deemed 'successful' (Japan, Korea, etc), and others (Philippines).

What (particular?) "economic orthodoxy" would you suggest countries follow? What are countries (if any) have followed them, and what are the results? Are there book(s) that you would recommend on how to implement this/these orthodoxies, with case studies or historical examples of implementations?

This is the central thesis of Mazzucato:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Entrepreneurial_State

Has an entire chapter on the iPhone and its technologies (GPS, touch screens, Siri, etc), which would be applicable to most smartphones.

It should also be pointed out that economic goodness is not and should not be the be-all end-all reason for government spending. Governments building parks, for example, is a social good with little economic value (or at very least hard to quantify benefits).

In the case of things like medicine, government spending there has a social good of limiting communicable disease which is more important than how much money a drug company can make off a drug.

For something like TSMC putting plants in the US, even if it's somewhat economically disadvantageous we are still talking about bringing onshore more jobs and training for US citizens which will generally increase our capabilities here and the satisfaction of those employees.

Trying to get onshore development of electronics, the government basically has 2 levers to pull, either subsidizing building new manufacturing or applying tariffs to incoming tech goods. One of those levers has the negative consequence of raising prices on tech goods for everyone while we wait for manufacturing to build out.

That’s simplistic and assumes a baseline where the relationship with the government starts at zero.

The company pays taxes. There can be negotiations over the tax rate, which is not a subsidy so much as a ‘tax you less’ type arrangement. This can happen at multiple levels for a company like Apple, even beyond the state/federal thing. The repatriation of billions of dollars of earnings is also in play.

We could try and incentivize a company like Apple to fabricate in the US, but the simple fact is that (until recently with the new TSMC fabs) we did not have the fabrication capabilities in the US needed to make apple silicon. Apple does not have the capabilities to make these fabs either.

You can cut taxes to 0 for US fabrication plants, but there are simple overhead costs that are hard to get away from. That's why an actual subsidy is needed.

I mean, you could exempt fabrication plants from employment and environmental laws to allow them to operate cheaper... but that's sort of monstrous.

That outweighs anything like jobs or economic efficiency (given no such war) by a couple of orders of magnitude.

And this really applies whether or not the US would join the war on Taiwan's side. TSMC production would be likely to be shut down for 5-10 years, regardless.

And completely ignores customers.

On the other hand, it's also hindered by government regulations making all new development much more expensive than what it could be.

I'd think all the industry segments would exist as the do provide clear benefits to everyone but the development paths taken could be different from what they're now.

Likely, yes, but even if they are, it’s impossible to say whether that’s a net win for society. Possibly, if the government hadn’t subsidized them, but instead had had lower taxation, other industry segments would have blossomed, and gotten better benefits for society.

As an example, US government support for the Internet may have led to larger automation, making labor relatively more expensive, and because of that decreasing the size of the middle class. Opinions will differ on whether that’s a net positive.

In other words, I think we’d need to presume the absence of those concerns to intelligibly consider the absence of taxation-funded interventions. And that’s more of a minarchst fever dream than a thing that could actually happen.

At the same time, this isn't a "yes/no" question. This is thousands of sliders that we adjust for each industry.

You always have to consider the opportunity cost. Sure, perhaps we've ended greater security and have also ended up with vibrant industry A at the end of it; but we maybe had to pay by hurting industries B, C, and D. It might be worth it; but it doesn't mean it makes sense to do it for industry Z where there is a smaller security benefit.

All those subsidies had to come out of some tax payers pocket, and they could have spent it on something more worthwhile (to them!).

Or more directly: it’s hard to even imagine a contemporary national or international industry without the economic interventions that produced those things.

Yes, there might be some government programs that look like a good deal in retrospect. Just like some lottery tickets are winners.

The heavy press program even turned a profit, if I remember right. Though private enterprise is usually pretty good at funding these kinds of projects, even with long lead times. (See eg how Amazon or Tesla or even Microsoft took ages to return capital to investors, but still had enthusiastic shareholders.)

I don't know specifically about packet switching, but you hear similar arguments about the invention of the computer.

In our reality, programmable electronic computers owe a lot to government and specifically military funding. But as a thought exercise, perhaps you can imagine an alternative history without WW2: IBM already made computing devices for business long before the war, and it's relatively easy to see how they would have eventually come up with a programmable electronic computer.

Compare also Konrad Zuse's work in Germany:

> After graduation, Zuse worked for the Ford Motor Company, using his artistic skills in the design of advertisements.[14] He started work as a design engineer at the Henschel aircraft factory in Schönefeld near Berlin. This required the performance of many routine calculations by hand, leading him to theorize and plan a way of doing them by machine.[21]

> Beginning in 1935, he experimented in the construction of computers in his parents' flat on Wrangelstraße 38, moving with them into their new flat on Methfesselstraße 10, the street leading up the Kreuzberg, Berlin.[22]: 418 Working in his parents' apartment in 1936, he produced his first attempt, the Z1, a floating-point binary mechanical calculator with limited programmability, reading instructions from a perforated 35 mm film.[14] Zuse Z1 replica in the German Museum of Technology in Berlin

> In 1937, Zuse submitted two patents that anticipated a von Neumann architecture. In 1938, he finished the Z1 which contained some 30,000 metal parts and never worked well due to insufficient mechanical precision. On 30 January 1944, the Z1 and its original blueprints were destroyed with his parents' flat and many neighbouring buildings by a British air raid in World War II.[22]: 426

> Zuse completed his work entirely independently of other leading computer scientists and mathematicians of his day. Between 1936 and 1945, he was in near-total intellectual isolation.[23]

In our real history, the US and UK armed forces came first, but a world with more resources in the hands of the private sector (and also with less war) would have surely accelerated some of these private computing experiments (IBM or Konrad Zuse or someone else), and we would have seen computers at roughly the same time as in ours, or perhaps even sooner.

Similarly, the real history of packet switching is heavily intertwined with some US government projects. But even just browsing Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packet_switching tells you about other attempts and projects going on around the same time. So the government's investment probably did not speed up things by that much, even before you consider that in our counter-factual the private sector would have more resources.

Imagining is easy; "hard to imagine" is an English idiom for "that seems implausible" :-)

You're providing examples that counter the impact of government innovation, but it's unclear to me whether these are true counterexamples. The history for IBM, for example, is almost entirely intertwined with IBM's role as a defense contractor. Zuse's second computer (the Z2) was funded directly by the German government, presumably because it aligned with Nazi military interests.

(As a whole, these things are impossible to extricate: it's clear that the government doesn't create every possible idea, and there are an infinite number of innovations that can't be assigned back to government sponsorship. But I think there's general academic consensus that computing, aerospace, and biotech all progressed at rates beyond their equivalent private sector capacity due to government investment, and that the resulting progress was "worth it" in terms of returned economic and social value.)

> But I think there's general academic consensus that computing, aerospace, and biotech all progressed at rates beyond their equivalent private sector capacity due to government investment, and that the resulting progress was "worth it" in terms of returned economic and social value.

It depends on your counterfactual. If government had taxed the same funds, but spent it on something else, yes, we would have had less progress in these specific sectors.

If they had taxed and intervened less, perhaps we would have had more?

And, of course, we picked these sectors out after the fact. There's plenty more examples of failed government investments.

I don't know why people say this. The reason China beat us out in manufacturing of many goods is BECAUSE of government interference. They have a much more top-down leadership style that allows these gains in efficiency. They've streamlined.

But even looking at the US' history this hasn't been the case. The only reason we got out of the Great Depression was because of the most radical government-backed economic policy ever: The New Deal. Even today HUGE sectors of our economy, like defense, are paid for on government money. Those are jobs, companies, entire industries.

We can speculate and play armchair economist all day. But the hard reality is that the New Deal revitalized the economy and created countless jobs to pull the US out of the Depression. Maybe a "do nothing" approach would've worked too, eventually. When I unlock the secrets to interdimensional travel, I'll let you know.

Armchair economists set up an argumentative scenario where they cannot be wrong. You see, if they're wrong about a situation then secretly they're right, because if you did what they suggested instead it would've worked too (and better!). But if they happen to be right then of course they're right, and countering suggestions are obviously wrong and would've caught the economy on fire.

Is this really accurate? Most places regulate, surely there is a reason for that? It works pretty well compared to the infamous ‘self regulation’.

These sentences are just propaganda. There’s no factual basis for them.

There are no markets without government intervention. Statements like this are more like religious incantations than appeals to “research” of some kind.

Of course there are. Black markets pop up everywhere to route around government intervention

Ancap fantasies aside, of course.

And then, there's lots of situations where externalities exist. If I poop in the river and you're downstream, it costs me nothing; I have no reason to stop.

Even if we grant that argument, that's at most an argument in favour of a minimalist nightwatchmen state. Not the full blown Leviathan.

> And then, there's lots of situations where externalities exist. If I poop in the river and you're downstream, it costs me nothing; I have no reason to stop.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coase_theorem

> In economics, a public good (also referred to as a social good or collective good) is a good that is both non-excludable and non-rivalrous.

If you ever sat in a traffic jam, you will have experienced that road use is rivalrous. And toll roads show that it's rather easy to exclude people from using roads.

Building roads with general taxpayer money and making them available without payment by the users might or might not be good policy. I don't know. But roads ain't a public good.

And they're usually a natural monopoly, too. Not to mention that the acquisition of land to make a road is often problematic.

Basically, there's a lot of reasons to expect market failure in a market for roads. That's not to say the only solution is for the government to provide them, but that laissez-faire, completely hands off solutions are probably not going to turn out great.

> Most [roads] spend most of their time with excess capacity and are not rivalrous.

Most cars sit around idle most of the time. I'm not sure what your argument shows?

> And they're usually a natural monopoly, too. Not to mention that the acquisition of land to make a road is often problematic.

That's a different discussion. Though I'm more optimistic.

They are a subsidy to the car industry.

They require ongoing maintenance.

They are a massive transfer to public land to whoever occupies the road, and the person occupying the road might not even be in their steel box for days on end.

But the same physical road, but financed out of user-fees (or by voluntary contributions from nearby shops to attract shoppers etc) by a profit-driven private company, are not subsidies to the car industry.

Or take the hypothetical from the last paragraph, and add massive taxes on top, and all of a sudden it's the opposite of a subsidy. But the physical road stays the same.

I would argue it 100% is. You can make MUCH more money if you steal or perhaps keep slaves. We're just so used to these preventative measures that we don't really consider them, but this is, in essence, a huge "tax" on the private sector.

Playing by the rules is very expensive as compared to not.

Past that, actually engaging with business (as a customer or employee) should be a rapid reminder of how much we have regulation to thank for. From not being poisoned (immediately or over the course of a lifetime) by our food, burned alive by non-fire retardant furniture (and the absence of a fire service), to having weekends off, our wages reliably paid, to being free from physical and the more obvious forms of psychological abuse. It's right there - you engage with the rights and privileges afforded by legislation daily.

Just astonishing to me that this kind of market fundamentalism is still actively engaged in. People can disagree on the extent and fundamental structure of government, but to deny it's role in the basic functioning of business in a society as complex as ours seems outright absurd.

That includes taking weekends off.

It's perfectly legal where I live to work on the weekend. There's also no minimum wage here. Yet, most people get weekends off and get paid more than zero.

It's also entirely legal here to offer jobs without reliable pay (as long as the contract doesn't promise reliable pay).

There's plenty of long term poisonous food available in all countries: you can mainline eg pure sugar to your heart's content. Most people in most countries opt for tastier and healthier fare, because they can afford it. There's also plenty of immediately poisonous substances available, like strong alcohol.

People also regularly opt for more than the legal minimum in terms of furniture safety. Eg Ikea sells you kits to bolt your cabinet to the wall, so it doesn't fall on your child trying to climb up on it. So the legal minimum's don't seem particularly binding: people voluntarily exceed them.

> Just astonishing to me that this kind of market fundamentalism is still actively engaged in. People can disagree on the extent and fundamental structure of government, but to deny it's role in the basic functioning of business in a society as complex as ours seems outright absurd.

Governments do stick their hands into many pies, but that doesn't mean that them doing that is required by some physical or natural law.

> If you're skeptical about whether governance is required for markets to function, launch your next startup on the darkweb or in a failed state.

Yes, governments control some of the best real estate on earth. That doesn't mean they necessarily contributed much to that happy state of affairs; often just the opposite.

Btw, many companies are trying to escape even basic functions provided by government, and are going for private arbitration instead, because it's more efficient.

But that’s beside the point. Even if most markets rely on government intervention, it tells you nothing about how much intervention is optimal.

It’s like saying “no human survives without food”, which is true but tells you nothing as to how much food is good.

The literature makes it clear that government intervention in markets is broadly necessary; the disagreement is around the how and what and why.

The Silicon Valley story is well known; the SAGE project really created the classic IBM.

If you are interested in this time, I 100% recommend the book The Dream Machine which is centered on J.C.R. Licklider but covers most of the people and projects that lead to personal computers. Stripe Press has a beautiful hardcover version of the book, but the font is tiny. I had to switch to an ereader version in order to read it.

By dollar value, perhaps, but that mostly means the US makes lot of high-value microchips, a field that has made (well-documented) exponential progress over the past decades. It is still consistent with US manufacturing capabilities regressing in other key aspects, such as machine tools, injection molding, shipbuilding, consumer goods, and so on.

Excerpt:

> "The computer industry, in turn, is an outlier and statistical anomaly. Its extraordinary output and productivity growth reflect the way statistical agencies account for improvements in selected products produced in this industry, particularly computers and semiconductors. Rapid productivity growth in this industry—and by extension the above-average productivity growth in the manufacturing sector—has little to do with automation of the production process. Nor is extraordinary real output and productivity growth an indicator of the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing in the computer industry; rather, the locus of production of the industry’s core products has shifted to Asia"

The whole document is well worth a read.

Here's another article: https://qz.com/1269172/the-epic-mistake-about-manufacturing-...

Also, hedonic adjustments are typically applied to CPI figures, not figures like GDP or value added, so I suspect you have some facts crossed.

When comparing to a past year's GDP, you need to make an adjustment for the differing value of money, and you can't calculate the differing value of money without considering the changes in the qualities of what you can buy with it.

Given that we have the largest navy in the world, it would behooves us to grow our shipbuilding capabilities to be at least competitive.

Or you can thank it for there being any shipbuilding left at all.

I would like to hear the case for how repealing the Jones Act would strengthen the US shipbuilding industry. I imagine it would be quite amusing.

> [The Jones Act] requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on ships that have been constructed in the United States and that fly the U.S. flag, are owned by U.S. citizens, and are crewed by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents.

Repeal all provisions save for the requirement of having to be constructed in the US.

It's not what I would suggest (an outright repeal would be better), but it's easy to see how this partial repeal would strengthen the US shipbuilding industry: you are making their products more useful and cheaper to operate.

For comparison, you can have a look at eg German shipbuilding. Germany isn't exactly a low-cost country, has no equivalent of the Jones Act, and is doing some shipbuilding. (They aren't the biggest player in building whole ships, but the world loves to import German Diesel engines. Division of labour and all that.)

Where did you get this information? The Spanish-American war wasn't considered much of a war by Americans at the time since the American fleet had been built with steel vs the Spanish that still used wooden ships. Those ships were run on coal. The US lost its shipbuilding industry because of cheaper competition from Japan and S. Korea in the civilian sector and Congress favors aircraft carriers over smaller ships like frigates and destroyers from what I read.

??? Scandinavia is full of it. But I suppose in the 1600's it was the Netherlands that cut down all the forests, they were the shipbuilding superpower at the time.

As ship production ramped up, there were growing concerns about resource depletion. To the point that by the late 16th century, Spain was forced to start importing timber from its colonies to keep up with demand.

Basically measuring this is difficult, but this is contrary to my only knowledge of this which was a Wendover video (that was an enjoyable watch), but I wouldn't hold in the highest standard.

China and the US have been at war for decades now. Both an economic war and cyber war. Chinese nation-state hackers have hacked into tons of Fortune 500, Aerospace and defense companies, and tech companies to steal R&D from them. They take this R&D and use it for themselves but additionally, they also give it to private industry to use for themselves as well. China plays the long con game. Whatever it takes to make China the number one super power country eventually.

The problem here is working people ARE the economy. If they no longer have the power of consumption everything crumples. Of course it's a sliding scale, but even just a bit less consumerism can be catastrophic for some industries.

You can make gains by new technology(printing press vs handwritten), cutting quality(cheaper inputs/materials) or improving efficiency(work cell design).

Looking at it from a view of consumerism paints a bleak picture, if you look at if from a view of social stability without a functioning economy everyone will starve since the fertilizer, DEF fluid, John Deere tractor code and everything that ties all those together are so far spread out that is has become like a spider web facing a hurricane.

I have immigrated from my homeland (first to Canada and then Malta) and I usually say "I had the bad luck to be born in Hungary but I fixed that when I could". In other words, I am not particularly fond of the country / people living in there. But it being my mother tongue, growing up there has an interesting effect: some Hungarian songs have a much stronger emotional effect than any in say English. These are not even songs I knew as a child. I am actually quite curious whether there has been scientific research in this.

"If you talk to a man in a language he understands, that goes to his head. If you talk to him in his language, that goes to his heart."

The idea here is pretty straightforward: speaking to someone in a language they merely understand reaches them intellectually, but speaking in their mother tongue resonates on a deeper, emotional level. You can imagine now why songs in Hungarian resonate more to you than the ones in English.

But this is exactly what Econ 101 tells you to expect to happen (and I teach Econ 101 ;) . Countries specialize to maximize comparative advantage. If you are the US and can manufacture high value items at a lower opportunity cost (or high value services at a lower opportunity cost), you will, but this means giving up on doing other things you could use the resources for.

The net result is that US manufacturing output in real dollars has increased 4x, in the past 70 years. At the same time, its share of the economy has shrunk (because other sectors have outgrown it), and many lower value manufacturing subsectors have been largely abandoned.

Here's a video [1] which explains why, in 1955, manufacturing household goods was cheaper to make in the US than in China (and why, at the time, they thought this manufacturing dominance was the thing that backed the US position as a global superpower). It's not because Americans worked more cheaply than Chinese workers, it's because American factories had a well-developed tool-and-die expertise, which meant that when anyone in the world wanted to make something, they were well-advised to travel the US to get it made.

Econ 101's comparative advantage is true at an instantaneous point in time, which is a good start, but if perhaps it's just "knowing enough to be dangerous". Economic policymakers (and company leaders) would do well to think about comparative advantage as planning an optimal trajectory over time, which can mean sacrificing a short-term optimum in exchange for a long-term optimum, and if there even is a textbook solution for that, it's going to look less like a 101-level intersection of straight lines, and more like an iterative optimization over nonlinear differential equations.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU6nsfoNWDI

Also because you couldn't offshore production to China or most other places even if you could provide all that due to various geopolitical, economic, social, institutional and other reasons.

And, sure, there are absolutely network effects with related goods and industries that have steepened that movement. If it was a win to change the allocation of resources when e.g. steelmaking was strong in the US, it's even more of a win after steelmaking withered.

> and if there even is a textbook solution for that,

It's not quite what you're saying, but the closest work I have read is 'Dynamic Optimization: The calculus of variations and optimal control in economics and management' by Kamien et al. It is all about estimating gradients and plotting trajectories in dynamical economic systems.

Manufacturing is the core example of path-dependent advantages, because (unlike what any econ 101 textbook teaches), marginal costs decline with increasing production quantity in the manufacturing sector. This means the more you make, the better you are at making more things!

There is never any guarantee that profits are long term or short term, or that your manufacturing specialization is going to remain useful, instead of being a dead end. Retaining specialization on, say, cathod tubes wasn't exactly profitable. See all the camera manufacturers that zigged when they should have zagged, and used their manufacturing strength to unprofitability. All of this is hidden by talking about 'manufacturing' in very large terms, but the real world doesn't work like that. Specifically, semiconductors were a very nice place to keep expertise in, and paid off. Internal combustion engines, and filaments for incandescent lighbulbs probably not.

Even in cases where we are looking at the same kind of manufacturing in multiple places, competitive advantages are lost. There are parts of Europe taht still have metallurgy and never attempted to divest, but lost comparative advantages because better technology came in at the wrong time in the capital depreciation curve: They invested heavily at the slightly wrong time, still had expensive labor, so they became far less competitive, at least for a while. Did they not pray enough to the manufacturing god? Did the Netherlands get lucky, or was sufficient dedication to manufacturing that led them to have ASML in their borders? Is the fact that Novo Nordisk found the most important pharmaceutical in the world a matter of Danish superior industrial policy, or did they just get lucky compared to the many other places with large investments in pharma that didn't get anywhere near that lucky?

The path dependence is not so predictable, and the path that makes you better today can lead you down a cliff. It's all gambles, and whoever claims they can predict what is the right one in the long run is being overconfident

Van den Brink gave a great interview some time ago, I'll see if I can translate it and post it here.

A lot of the GLP-1 success is based on progress made in the diabetes space (incidentally so), the refinement of molecules and better understanding of how obesity could be treated.

Looking at how Apple said it would be impossible to get US chips, so much this. It needed a lot of investment to onshore chip production again. And we should onshore more high value manufacturing to keep the supply chain working in one place.

The EU has been better at keeping manufacturing competence, but I see a lot of these short term comparative advantage econ 101 ideas taking over in the EU as well.

The United States was able to build a tremendous economy by building up those systems while continuing to benefit from its older manufacturing base for decades.

The United States economy is far from perfect, but it hasn’t traded away a long-term asset for only short-term ones as you’re suggesting.

Like I said in my previous comment, though, this doesn't mean the capability to build has left the US (or Europe). Just that the decision to continue investing in manufacturing things that aren't competitively profitable has been made and the capacity has been allocated to higher margin manufacturing (regulated industries, complex products, and products where customers are less price sensitive).

It's not just geopolitics. China required partnering with local companies and sharing IP. Even if they were geopolitically friendly, Western countries set up to build their own Chinese competition from scratch in exchange for lower labour costs, believing that either they could out-innovate China at design (even when Americans no longer understand how their own products get made), or that they'd be retired by the time it did matter.

I think there's little doubt that our change in allocation of resources has been advantageous versus staying an economy focused on primary metals and relatively simple manufacturing. Do you really feel otherwise?

Of course, economic assessments and the behavior of markets generally assumes free choice by participants. So there's always:

1. Geopolitical risks: state leverage can turn a local absolute advantage in e.g. producing war materiel into other advantages.

2. Sure, we could back ourselves into a corner, ultimately, by not being able to provide a key part of the value chain by following that gradient. (Geopolitics can be related, too, in that states can gather together lots of small advantages and use them in coordinated ways against other states).

So our state, of course, needs to focus on countering those actions of other parties. And maintaining some diversity beyond what is economically optimal can add resilience.

(One point I make in class: our textbook pretty much says that price controls are always dumb... but that there are plenty of reasons that a country might desire to have a surplus of food or to not be dependent upon another country).

The track record of those who would seek to centrally plan and optimize for some future outcome instead of following that profit gradient has been very poor. Not to say that it's never worked: but generally following the profit gradient has yielded better outcomes.

> because of (unlike what any econ 101 textbook teaches), marginal costs decline with production quantity in the manufacturing sector.

Unlike what any econ 101 teaches? Talking about LRATC, returns to scale, etc, is a big part of my unit 3. If you're not referring to that and instead e.g. Wright's law, that too is mentioned.

The behavior of markets assumes free choices by participants that rewards the participants who make those choices. I do not dispute that the CEOs who were responsible for shipping supply chains to China were following their incentives, and it worked out well for them. I would argue that there are alterations to regulations on corporate governance which would increase long-term profitability of those corporations overall, but that the key people in the corporations aren't properly incentivized to pass them, nor are shareholders sufficiently informed or coordinated.

> Talking about LRATC, returns to scale, etc, is a big part of my unit 3

In your unit 3, do you draw LRATC curve as a parabola? Because that's the wrong shape for manufactured goods. Not only do average costs decrease, so do marginal costs, and this is monotonic over all but the shortest timescales. Wright's law is about half of the reason, yes.

A whole lot of the decline that we're talking about has been in those sectors. Microchips and aerospace grew; simple consumer goods and steel manufacturing fell through the floor.

> The behavior of markets assumes free choices by participants t...

Incentives can be, and often are misaligned. However, the context of our discussion is talking about large overall economic growth that has outpaced manufacturing growth, even though it is still positive. This isn't evidence of misaligned incentives.

> In your unit 3, do you draw LRATC curve as a parabola? Because that's the wrong shape for manufactured goods.

It's absolutely a bathtub.

It's steep-downward sloping, mostly flat for a loooooonnnggg time, and then upward sloping. Indeed, this understanding of the shape of LRATC originally comes from study of manufactured goods. At some point coordination gets hard and further increases in quantity require using resources that are not well suited for the task.

Of course, the quantity at which costs slope upwards may be at an impractically large quantity for any industry-- in which case that industry is likely to be a natural monopoly. And there are some recent arguments that coordination is easier thanks to information technology and that it is even harder to reach diseconomies of scale.

I endeavour to convince you that you are teaching your students a falsehood. Natural resource industries have bathtub-shaped average costs. Average costs fall strictly monotonically for manufacturing, and marginal costs either fall or remain constant. Constant marginal costs are what you get if you don't even bother to solve coordination problems, and just copy-and-paste your whole assembly line instead (except even then you can't help but gain economies of scale, if only from your tooling suppliers). The misconception that it's a bathtub does not come from the study of manufactured goods, it comes from thought experiments about manufactured goods done by people who never managed quote requests at a real factory. Empirical studies done on actual firms almost never show rising marginal costs at any quantity.

That this error has permeated introductory economics is a very, very big problem.

You still have coordination problems on the supply and distribution side.

> Average costs fall strictly monotonically for manufacturing

This is an extraordinary claim that is easy to refute with simple thought experiments. e.g. You think that if I want 103% of the units that a set of equipment from ASML can deliver, that average costs will be lower than producing 100%? Or do you mean "strictly monotonically" in some other sense?

Being able to vary your capital in the long run doesn't mean that you can have 10.3 sets of photolithography apparatus.

> and just copy-and-paste your whole assembly line instead

If you copy and paste and have everything truly independent, without the need for any coordination of resources, what you effectively have is multiple firms. In practice, firms still need to allocate scarce resources among lines.

> The misconception that it's a bathtub does not come from the study of manufactured goods , it comes from thought experiments about manufactured goods

This is a falsehood. Bain conducted reams of real-world research on manufacturing, plant size, firm size, and returns to scale, and this informs today's idea of LRAC. Of course, this research is 70 years old, and recent data is more ambiguous. As I've said, some believe that information technology has changed everything.

Apparently this was known as the “American School” of economics — and it dominated from the mid-late 1800s for over a century.

Not true. If your factory can make N widgets per year, and you want to make N+1 widgets, the marginal cost of the N+1th widget is vastly greater than the Nth widget.

For most goods, the factory doesn't run anywhere near N, and the fixed costs are 6 or more orders of magnitude higher than the marginal widget costs, so your business is well served just by finding any method to use that plant more effectivly. As an example, I was quoted $60,000 for a mold which would have produced parts at $0.005. (Very small plastic widgets.) At that ratio, any amount of scale will increase my profit, since the marginal costs, even if they increase by a factor of 10 or 100, are negligible to the cost of the tooling. (And the global market for this widget is measured in hundreds of units.) Any amount of reusing the mold is going to save me money. Sure we have problems if we need N+1 widgets in less than 1/N more time, but if we expected to need 2N widgets, we could reuse the tooling design at a second factory, and marginal costs actually do keep dropping.

Just because they're "lower value" subsectors doesn't mean they have significant real-world impacts.

This sort of announcement will inevitably be used shortsightedly for political reasons. Someone will interpret "We have 3nm at home" as "We can do something foolhardy with Taiwan" or "We can throw up a big, non-surgical tariff". This will soon be followed by "did anyone mention that the 3nm chip is useless without a galaxy of half-cent supporting parts that we outsourced decades ago?" or "people consume products other than highly binned silicon dies, and now we have supply crunches and price spikes from televisions to toasters to turmeric?"

All of that manufacturing growth is semiconductors, and most of that measured semiconductors growth is simply Moore's law. I don't think anybody would say that the US is worse at making transistors today than it was in 1970, but that's table stakes; everybody is better at making transistors than they were in 1970. Automotive manufacturing has also done well (in part thanks to trade barriers). When it comes to everything else -- vacuum cleaners, fans, washing machines -- that manufacturing output is not doing so well.

The company I previously worked for not only outsourced product manufacturing to South Korea with assembly in the USA, after I left. They also outsourced customer service (CSR) to south Asia. Texas VCs bought the company and are trying to maximize all returns on their investment.

Companies like American, that produce branded products, have a whole department that helps their sales reps with moving customer support, be it email, physical letter, and or phone, to south Asia to reduce office management costs in the USA. They also could just be outsourcing invoicing while CSR is a local provider.

Manufacturing is a simple concept that is heavily politically pushed. The other departments that are needed to support products seem to be ignored. ML has a great likelihood of perpetuating this with real-time vocal transitioning. The CSR in India can sound like some person from New Jersey and break the accent barrier. This would put the customer at ease when sharing the same vocal tones. Consumers would be none the wiser.

I'm not saying that in a judgmental or harshly negative way -- I've personally worked in cost centers for most of my career, and although I think highly of myself and my peers, we're still just assessed bluntly as part of COGS.

If C-level could be outsourced while keeping shareholder returns, it would be

At least with J, if they outsourced the full part of one of the project, we would have it done faster and better XD

Aka giving up the security and being more vulnerable to volatility. The pendulum can swing too far, as resilience cannot be measured in dollars.

I think that's largely the point. Obviously, it's a balancing act, but when market forces create a situation that is incompatible with national security it really is the governments job to address the situation even if, as in the case with Chinese EVs, it means a bit of pain for consumers.

I think if you start to deep dive into the industries that left, you'll find the reasons were often more complicated than simple labor costs. American companies did get out-competed by foreign firms in a lot of key areas.

America is large, but they can't expect to be the best in the world at every industry. If an entire country focuses on a specific niche for long enough, it's possible they will become the best. Samsung and TSMC are incredible companies that didn't happen by accident. And yeah, the USA might not compete at that level on the global stage, but the American economy is also not so completely dominated by one megacorp either.

Also, a lot of manufacturing, especially the high tech stuff, is highly automated. So these massive factories don't generate the same number of jobs they once did. And the jobs they do generate are often technical. More maintenance and calibration of machinery, and less putting bottle caps on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung

Samsung is also very closely tied to the Korean government.

>I think if you start to deep dive into the industries that left, you'll find the reasons were often more complicated than simple labor costs

Care to share any of the reasons?

Here are reasons that I know about; EPA regulations, OSHA regulations, their supply base relocating.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2011/08/17/why-ama...

Don't get me wrong though, we shouldn't roll back our regulations but we should however ensure that what we buy is manufactured in that same conditions that we would demand at home.

Governments being laser focused on building a specific domestic industry and winning. I.e., as you point out, Samsung. It's hard to win a battle where an entire country has decided to push to become the best in the world in one field.

Tektronix lifted the Portland Oregon region right up. Was called silicon forest.

At that time, Tek was funding startups its employees thought up after working for Tek, getting great education provided directly by the company as well as through college partnerships.

Tek also literally trained a workforce here by educating any of its employees and by doing programs with suppliers to do the same.

I am a product of that time.

A drive through this region in the 80's and early 90's was awesome! Shops of all kinds, Tek itself had COMTEK which could make damn near anything, and opportunities abounded!

Howard Vollem died and the MBA took over.

COMTEK was torn down, work was sent overseas, education stopped, startup funding stopped, and soon a drive through this region looked very different: hair nails and laundry.

While large scale manufacturing has grown, the rest has suffered huge!

Our military can't find the capacity it needs! And they, along with aerospace, are the best customers there are, with auto in some parts too.

The rest has been gutted.

That is what we need to fix. It matters.

If companies won't do what Tek did, and that is invest in the region and it's people, and they won't because getting max dollars at any cost matters more than sustainable business does, then we must have robust small to mid sized manufacturing.

Where else will our future skilled labor come from? And I left for higher end professional work and software. I can make anything I can draw, it was damn good at it too. Saw way too many places close and there's no way I can raise a family on that and I quit ... tons of us did.

The skills I have are rare and in high demand. Young people today can't get them like I did, and that adds right the hell up.

You think your arguments make sense. And you are not wrong. They do, but that is not the problem.

The problem is for your argument to make sense, a ton of people and manufacturing potential is lost and nobody seems to recognize the massive opportunity costs in all that.

And frankly if large companies aren't going to do it and get a return on that investment, then our government damn well should. We do really put our national security at risk doing otherwise.

This has a lot more to do with the stance of the past 30 years to manufacture defense materiel at relatively constant, small rates. There was no capital investment, because why pay to have a huge line that isn't being used. We spent our military dollars on wonder-weapons that would probably win a direct war quickly, but that we can't give to allies in a proxy conflict. Going so far was a strategic mistake.

> And they, along with aerospace, are the best customers there are,

Military are terrible customers, especially if you're a subcomponent manufacturer. Gravy might pour, it might not; it's very unpredictable. You spend a lot of effort and business just evaporates.

> Howard Vollem died and the MBA took over.

On the flip-side, can you imagine being the high-cost Tek of old in today's test equipment marketplace? Tek already struggles to compete against cheaper, adequate solutions. So much of that market has commoditized out.

> nobody seems to recognize the massive opportunity costs in all that.

Actually, that's exactly what I'm talking about, in both directions. Having a ton of manufacturing means we would have opportunity costs in the other direction. We've traded the manufacturing we had 50 years ago for other things. It's not possible to specialize in "everything."

I'd like to suggest that what Tek did worked back then, and the same insightful leadership wouldn't simply copy the solutions from 20 years ago.

Thus the problem is "there was no capital investment, because there was no visionary leadership," and the problem is also that the short-sighted leadership simply saw "a huge line that isn't being used," instead of a workforce ready to take your company into the next century.

> Military are terrible customers ... You spend a lot of effort and business just evaporates.

This only applies to companies that lack vision, that seem to only be able to keep stamping out the same widget as 20 years ago.

> Tek already struggles to compete against cheaper, adequate solutions.

Seems like a lack of leadership, instead of an existential proof that Tek can't compete.

> We've traded the manufacturing we had 50 years ago for other things. It's not possible to specialize in "everything."

This actually sounds like the kind of visionary leadership that Tek or the larger Portland metro needs.

If I sound combative, please only read this in a curious voice. What kind of visionary leadership could rise from the ashes of the Silicon Forest?

I was specifically talking about war materiel. The US is not doing great at making things like low-tech artillery shells, because we've not had a large line running for them for quite some time. In retrospect, it would have been better to have a bigger stockpile and to be paying for more line capacity.

Things are steadily ramping, but it's taken a good year and a half to get to the quantities we now want.

> > Military are terrible customers ... You spend a lot of effort and business just evaporates.

> This only applies to companies that lack vision, that seem to only be able to keep stamping out the same widget as 20 years ago.

Nah, vision or not: political winds change and projects get killed. Being involved in an early program is exceptionally high risk: you need to start ramping to do the whole thing and you may get a good return on capital or a pittance.

> Seems like a lack of leadership, instead of an existential proof that Tek can't compete.

The overwhelming majority of the test equipment marketplace has commoditized out. This is a problem if you're still mostly a test equipment vendor. It would be even worse if Tek had higher costs.

> This actually sounds like the kind of visionary leadership that Tek or the larger Portland metro needs.

In those sentences, I'm not talking about Tek: I'm saying the United States has, as elementary economics predicted, specialized in areas where it has a comparative advantage over other countries. It is not possible to have a comparative advantage in "everything."

Often, people wonder about the higher cost associated with government cobtract work. One does need to cost out those risks and include them in project costs.

"Elementary Economics"

Economics is not a science. We cannot execute the scientific method on Economics because we have no way to repeat and or establish controls needed to understand results.

Policy drove "elementary economics", and made it predictive. And the policy was driven by strong advocacy dressed up as real science too. That advocacy was produced by people of significant means wanting more and more control.

Change the policy, and we will see the Economics change too.

Fact is we gutted a lot of small to mid sized manufacturing, and with it went many strong opportunities for people to take advantage of. Those people require help to make it because the opportunities they did find, if they found them at all, do not pay enough to make it, or should they, the labor burden and often painful scheduling makes for tired people lacking often the means and energy required to build skill on their own.

You could say the same thing about mathematics, but it remains the case that it is useful to know some math.

There is policy, and that has a major league effect on what will make good economic sense.

The current policy could change, and that would impact what is worth what and why and the math can tell us what it always has.

Here is one:

For a long time we have ignored anti monopoly laws.

When competition is present, margins are less, people tend to get higher value for the dollar. When it is not present, margins are higher and people get much less value for the dollar.

Right now, big grocery is wanting to do one more merger to basically put Krogers in charge of grocery stores, with its competition being Walmart and maybe Amazon.

So far, each merger has reduced the number of products available to people and higher prices. But someone somewhere is banking more and paying less.

I like competition. I like higher value for the dollar and choice in business. I bring this up because I personally dislike Kroger and it is all about the much lower value per dollar.

How this all goes is political. Policy may be to preserve competition to prevent price gouging and all that comes with a monopoly.

The math may say more dollars are made by having one company, but that same math says it comes at the expense of the people too.

Does not, and I would argue, should not go that way.

What happened was the MBA crew took it right out of the fucking company, gutted the rest and we have a a shell of what we had before today.

Tek was also getting nice returns on several of the more successful startups.

Vollum was no fool.

Snark mode = 1

You mean traded our future for baubles and trinkets today?

Yeah, I agree!

Snark mode = 0

I will ask again:

Where does our next generation of skilled labor come from?

And don't tell me we won't need it because automation. I have automated many things and will do so again, but I never managed to find a robot looking for a good meal, or a home, etc...

At some point we need to look at this in terms of our own, or we will be living in even more of a dystopia than the already growing one threatens to be.

If we do not ask and answer the question, "how do our future leaders and builders, mechanics make it?", they won't. And the cost on that is a lot higher than many will admit it is.

I don't really want to talk to you because you're being deliberately abrasive. But I will leave you with one answer.

Your question presupposes that all the other areas of the economy that have eclipsed still-growing manufacturing do not produce "skilled" labor. I do not think this is a valid assumption.

And that helps nobody, yourself-included. There's nothing on this thread that you should turn your back away from. There's nothing on this thread that should even hurt!

And finally, I'll always talk to the other people. Keeping that door open is the only way we get progress. Just consider that for the future.

What's your calling abrasive is passion. I actually do really give a shit. Consider that too.

edit: I care, too. I mean, I went into education where I'm teaching future high-skilled labor and building human capital ;) And--- where I am, the kids are alright.

There are good reasons why the percentage of people who agree with me are high.

Edit: yes you absolutely do get to pick and choose and I support your ability to do so! However I will observe that you are operating at a disadvantage by doing so

But they're doing stuff like machining aerospace gear that will fly in space, doing structural and thermal analysis, designing and assembling circuit boards, implementing LQG controllers. Or just doing carpentry and fabrication for theater productions to the highest aesthetic standards.

And I go to competitions against other schools and see a ton of what we would have before considered "high skilled" adults, except they're 13-16 year old kids. They're going to go to university and further develop the ability to work with their head and their hands. But they're not going to go supervise a press stamping out the same part over and over, and they're not going to reinvent the wheel that they can buy for 30 cents per unit.

> There are good reasons why the percentage of people who agree with me are high.

This isn't a very good argument for the validity of an idea.

> Edit: yes you absolutely do get to pick and choose and I support your ability to do so! However I will observe that you are operating at a disadvantage by doing so

Avoiding being trolled is not "operating at a disadvantage." There's plenty of reasonable discussion, and the points you raise have already been answered and debated in cousin threads. I'm choosing to answer you a little more because you've been a little nicer.

Indeed it is not in terms of a convincing argument, however is is more than sufficiently compelling for others to think about, perhaps ask "why?" In this, they often will entertain more conversation that has real advocacy potential and that is just fine, intended.

I will just say what you and others are doing is not enough.

Meta:

I was nice the whole time. There are no words of mine here to fret over. That is deliberate intent too. Some style choices are aimed at passersby and to provoke thought. Nothing more. Others may not be so nice. I get that.

Whether you answer me or not has no impact on my choices.

To be 1,000 percent clear, you were never trolled by me. Frankly I could probably do it and not even get under your radar. That sounds something I choose to do. The single most likely reason you answer is my speech here is compelling enough to warrant an answer.

And by percentage it's no replacement for what we had before. All one needs to do is take a look at massive numbers of young people looking for opportunity not able to find it to understand what this all means.

There was a great argument for trading some capability to continue to build new products on now current processes, with the same rapid feedback loop in place.

That should have happened rather than the very aggressive tear down and brain drain we actually saw.

The key point being ongoing and regular investment in the company and people would have yielded more and better products that would compete just fine, not just be the cheapest.

That organization would be smaller, but still potent and a lot more nimble, able to continue supporting technical engineering across many fields.

And as I have mentioned up thread, couple that with returns from smart spin-off investments and an ongoing innovation culture rather than just a cost cutting one and we would have seen more than we did.

I would also argue the big push to apply software was sexy, and took the air right out of hardware efforts. Lack of investment there was not about the lack of returns, and it still is not about that. They are just a different kind and over a longer time.

Ignoring those has bled the region of a lot of capability. It is much harder to make things and here we are trying to understand how the next generation makes it on hair, laundry and food.

Making things is important. And it is not the cheapest way of course. Having a large percentage of people unable to build lives is and will continue to be very expensive. Crime, need for government services and more abound.

Early on, the promise of new tech and automation was a reduced need to work as much and or at the least maintaining respectable standards of living.

Put simply, it was supposed to cost less to live and for the most part these things did not happen.

Something needs to.

Cuz letting it manage itself works so well

Even the premise that it was always cheaper to manufacture abroad is flawed in many respects as Congress subsidized offshoring over many years as part of an effort to encourage globalization.

Companies often receive massive tax breaks with write-offs to close US plants, tax credits, zero percent import duties, and lower overall tax rates by shifting their profits and losses through offshore banks.

In many respects profitability has most often been determined by the policies we subsidize. and for decades those policies were essentially all in for the benefit of offshoring.

Comparing the actual cost of production by location is far more complicated than just the cost of materials and labor when there are so many subsidies and policies involved.

If you're talking about efficiency or productivity, you don't need markets for either of these, you just need any kind of economy to work with. Industrialization only intersects with markets (or capitalism for that matter), they aren't the same thing.

> ...I don't think the government applying such levers to change how the market allocates capital probably won't be a win for economic output or quality of life.

I think the problem you're having is you're thinking of manufacturing in terms of dollars, like an aloof economist.

The US was once a global leader in textiles and now virtually all of that industry is gone. The same goes for many many other industries.

>just its share of GDP has fallen as other sectors have grown faster

I think this is inn-accurate. You're looking at a century of data but China only took 1 decade to overtake the US. We're now three decades in and the overall decline of American manufacturing is pretty evident.

The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups

The reason most people want more manufacturing in the US is because they want manufacturing jobs. It is only within the last few years since the pandemic that we started to care about domestic manufacturing as a matter of national security

Really? Every time I see this claim its based on some citing some statistical mismash that the person citing does not understand and cannot explain.

How much tonnage of merchant shipping does the USA build in 2020s versus the 1960s?

How many TVs and computer monitors does the United States make in 2020s versus 1990s?

How many tons of steel does the USA make in the 2020s versus the 1970s? Of tool steel?

How many nuclear reactors are produced in the USA in 2020s versus the 1970s?

How many railway rails graded for high-speed trains are produced in the USA in 2020s versus 1980s?

How many CNC mills are produced in the USA in the 2020s versus the 1980s?

How many artillery shells are produced in the USA in 2020s versus the 1980s?

How many jet engines are produced in the USA in the 2020s versus the 1980s?

How many car engines blocks are produced in the USA in the 2020s versus the 1980s?

How many computer hard drives are produced in the USA in the 2020s versus the 1990s?

How many motherboards are produced in the USA in the 2020s versus the 1990s?

(Also, adjust all the comparisons above for population growth, we should be comparing manufacturing production per capita)

If you think that these comparisons are misleading because there are 'quality changes' please tell me exactly how you quantify these changes in quality.

If you read the surrounding argument and want to discuss some further point not covered, I'm here.

There are two separate questions:

1) Has USA manufacturing increased or declined in its output (measured in things, not $)?

2) If output has declined in terms of things, is this ok because of comparative advantage? Is this ok because the US mains a competitive edge in the highest value most technically advanced products?

As for 1), you say "The net result is that US manufacturing output in real dollars has increased 4x, in the past 70 years." Are you familiar with the term "researcher degrees of freedom"? "manufacturing output in real dollars" is an impossibly complicated statistical construct with infinite researcher degrees of freedom. There are infinite opportunities for "Getting Eulered" https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/10/getting-eulered/ That is why I insist on starting with the most straight-forward numbers -- how many cars? How much steel? And then layering on adjustments on top of that. If steel is down but it is compensated by some other high value product being up, OK, but show me the calculation, show me the work. Otherwise your argument boils down to "Trust the US government's impenetrable statistical calculations, we are getting richer comrade"

As for 2), when I first heard that argument from the most prestigious and credentialed economists twenty-five years ago, my toys and clothes said "Made in China" while advanced technical products like my computer motherboard was made in the USA. Now it's OK that the motherboards are all made abroad and because the most technically sophisticated motherboards are made in the USA. Well, it seems to me like the areas where the USA has comparative advantage in making the most technically advanced products is becoming a smaller and smaller every year. Just this year we are made aware of how much Boeing has lost ground to Airbus. Seems to USA is increasingly reliant on low-tech exports like soybeans, or worse, exporting dollar bills. It seems to me like our trade deficit is gaping wide, which means our real export is living off our status as the global reserve currency. Which feels nice until ones military might is no longer able to support that status (see 16th century Spain). Seems to me that the US is losing ground on military relevant manufacturing -- particularly drones but also steel, ships, etc. And without that, it will not be able to maintain its status as reserve currency in the long run.

As a thought experiment, you can do the same analysis with any number of technologies from the 20th century—typewriters, vacuum tubes, plate-based printing presses, analog telephones—and the point is obvious.

If you think that the manufacturing output in some of the things I listed declined or stagnated -- but it is countered by the fact that US manufacturing of other newly invented goods has increased -- then please specify what those goods are. Seems to me like the US manufacturing also lags in newly invented goods -- like drones.

I see two issues with this:

One, this is the same kind of subsidies and meddling with the markets that we accuse China of doing. If we are adopting state-led approach, it can be done in a serious manner without being hypocrites. But that would also require admission of some mistakes.

Two - why is it seen as okay to give tax breaks to an engineering company, why not give tax breaks to engineers themselves instead? Companies are imaginary, people are real, why not give incentives to individuals?

At least that money won’t be squirrelled away in tax heavens.

But that's hard to do politically.

So there isn't a problem about manufacturing, never has been. Problem is strictly about manufacturing employment, which is of course, inexorably falling and will continue doing so and every politician promising to reverse it is a blatant liar. It's falling much like farm employment has been falling 40-70 years ago, sure it's traumatic, ruins livelihoods of millions of families many of which will never recover, destroys not just their personal finances but their source of pride and sense of self in many ways. But just like it didn't result in decrease in food output back then (quite the opposite happened), it doesn't result in dearth of manufacturing products now.

National security and global freedom of navigation are essential preconditions for our current level of economic output and quality of life. In the long run, it’s not an either/or.

As someone who also feels like the future is trending downward, I hope we can at least get some crumbs from the top.

But wait, of that 5% we can clearly see many negative indicators among at least half (if not more) of the population.

If you are not in tech or part of the asset owning class then your wages have been flat or in decline. With the ever increasing amount of inflation in most goods, your lifestyle has been in decline.

So really only a subset of that 5% has been the beneficiary of the hegemon. Does that look like a thing to be proud of? A small in-group of people have got it going while everyone else is trending negative either now or going in that direction in the future.

It begs asking the same question I mentioned in my original post: Who are we really fighting for? The answer to this question really depends on if you have empathy for others or if you just care about yourself or your "tribe".

>practically all of us would be impacted.

To be fair, I did also point out that I hope that people in this bucket at least receive some crumbs from the top. Thats all we could hope for. But if you continue on that thought process, if the hegemon dies at least there would be some justice if it took out the top with everyone else.

2. My focus was deliberately very generalized to focus on the way the US benefits itself by pushing others down on a global level. We could drill down on a country by country basis and find ways in which the US can benefit the country and ways in which it benefits at the expense of said country. If you take the entire world population as a whole you can make the argument that it is a net negative and that maybe a stable multi-polar world might have different results. I don't follow Indian geopolitics as closely as others but sure the US Navy's efforts to patrol the oceans to benefit their main trading partners in Europe and Asia also helps to benefit countries such as India and Pakistan by helping secure trade but also secure a stable source of fuel and food (which is starting to slowly break down now) while at the same time, their clear efforts in deposing democratically elected Imran Kahn because he started to shift away from the US is a net negative to Pakistan's future.

This would have multiple repercussions: The idea of an evangelical christian fueled "end times" would be over, the propping up of Israel would be much more painful than it is now which would result in severe scrutinization.

The chances of other economies given a chance to emerge might be higher if the cost of the west meddling in its affairs gets more expensive.

Life would be harder for people like me, but there would be more peace when going to bed at night.

Let me propose an alternative and just try to consider it: How about we let those countries develop and if they can have a sustainable system then great, more competition is good for humanity or if it does not shake out then they will collapse or be forced to pivot and then we will know for sure.

What isn't cool is deliberately trying to cut their legs out because we want to remain unchallenged (Venezuela, Iran, Russia, China) or quietly control their government preventing any chance of democracy (This year Pakistan, a few years back Venezuela etc.)

What are you talking about? We are living in an age of unprecedented global peace and prosperity. Most people never had as good as today, and things are set to improve further.

Poor leaning trends include:

1. The collapse of governments that were pushed to the end by the US and its partners: Pakistan(deposed leader), Iran(sanctions, deposed leader), Venezuela(sanction, attempted to depose leader in 22), and I guess you can now throw Ukraine and possibly Russia there as well(collapsed economy, massive population casualties + collapse level birth rates)

2. The US has essentially acted as a bully towards many countries in the global south and while many of them have had to just take it, they now have another bully (China) that they can play off of each other.

In the short term it will be painful as the US tries to keep people on their side through backhanded efforts (Pakistan, Bolivia) but in the end the countries know that the China is a unreliable ally that only wants to dump their manufacturing overflow and take resources back while the US is an unreliable ally that bullies everyone into positions that favor itself(4 years loudly and then the next 4 years quietly) so with no other hope, the best move to play is trying to extract as much as they can from both sides (Djibouti for example). Not sure if you can make the argument that "unprecedented global peace and prosperity" is coming to these countries, they are just trying to get by with what they can.

3. Lets not forget climate change: Overwhelming % of historical emissions caused mainly by the west and with the consequences to be dealt mainly to the third world. Where is the justice in that?

> Where is the justice in that?

I did not want to make any statement about 'justice'. That's multiple separate topics.

The post is about the US, the thread is about the US and the message I originally replied to was about the US....

If you are talking more generally, I am baffled as to why you would ask that. The US's actions are reducing/removing free agency for a significant percentage of people on the planet. I am pro-humanity. Those people are no less deserving of all the possibilities that life has to offer but just as importantly, they deserve every chance to improve their lot. Since we have concrete proof that the US has acted to cause problems in other countries, they will be criticized.

And, of course, if you overshoot and the other guys outgrow you as a result, that limits your ability to be secure as well.

People in mainland China have gotten massively richer over the last few decades, but America did not have to pay more for imports. If anything, the increase in productivity made Chinese imports relatively cheaper.

I also wonder what's the share of non-disposable products in US and other Western countries manufacturing.

In ideal world businesses would have to pay a fair livable wage, no matter where they build factories, or receive migrants from.

That doesn't seem to be what's happening though.

Let me echo back what I understand to be your argument: “If there were accelerating returns to capital moving the equilibrium of labor/capital-intensiveness mix, then there would be no demand to further reduce the cost of labor”

My argument is: regardless of where that equilibrium is at any given point in time, it will almost never be 0% labor-intensive, and anyone engaged in labor-intensive production would always have a preference for even lower-cost labor.

So the answer to the question of, “why do businesses want immigration despite a more capital-intensive mix of production” is “because cheaper labor is better regardless of how much labor you need.”

You're replying to basically a strawman I wrote. I didn't say that is what's happening, I said that's what would be happening if investment was all going into capital and not labor intensive industry as OP said.

EDIT: Oh, OP is you! No wonder you're getting touchy. Your original comment is wrong.

I think this was the angle epistasis was coming from: not just that chips are physically being formed within the boundaries of the US, but that citizens are involved, being trained and garnering the practical experience that comes with being intimately involved.

So, so much of this sort of experience has been lost over the past few decades, and the fallout is palpable: how many discussions have played out right here surrounding the challenges of manufacturing anything, even trivial bits of plastic, at scale without spending years traveling across the world, dealing with language and cultural mismatches, ensuing mistakes and quality issues?

We're in a weird place now, wrt manufacturing skill - there are still plenty of individual crafters, folks who can make one-off or small runs of high-quality goods... For a pretty high cost per/ea. But scaling is troublesome; to hit that economy of scale requires a lot more people with maybe journeyman-level skill, folks who cut their teeth in a large operation and are looking to specialize - and those large operations aren't here.

Middle class manufacturing jobs have fallen off a cliff and completely destroyed huge swaths of our country. Take a tour around Bridgeport, CT sometime as a great example. The northeast is littered with towns like this. These executives and their buddies in Congress mortgaged our middle class for profits by sending all our industry to Asia.

We've got China cheating with their massively deflated currency, so how the market allocates capital is already screwed.

No, no it's not.

When semiconductor manufacture moved to Asia, this was generally done under a "technology transfer agreement", which was an explicit agreement for US companies to transfer their (usually older) tech to an independent local company who would then be allowed to manufacture it and develop it. This is how TSMC started, by doing a deal with Philips to manufacture for them but also to trained on the tech and to be allowed to use it themselves.

This TSMC US fab (and Samsung's new fab) are not under such an agreement, it is directly run by TSMC with no explicit goal to transfer technology. I think it was a mistake for the US CHIPS act funding to go to such a venture without a clause for technology transfer back to a US company.

and for taiwan, US has pledged to its security in case of invasion would defend no matter what

Maybe with TSMC building chips in the US, that'll be one less reason for the US to defend Taiwan.

we talking about geo politic here. if china attack taiwan so would be north korea (this is their best chance)

for south korea and japan this is their existensial crisis, having china and north korea close to their home even for a kilometer is basically death sentence

You cant forget also US literally spends billions of dollar to keep balance of power in Europe,Middle-East and Africa

do you think US would ignore Asia where 30+-% world trade and resources happen??? you dnt need expert to figure it out

Even high level people in the plant still aren't that useful. What's useful are the insanely expensive, insanely complicated extreme-ultraviolet lithography equipment from ASML. Nobody in the world makes the stuff they do. At least, that we know of. It wouldn't surprise me if the NSA has funded designing and building an EUV lithography system, or just stole the designs from ASML. We know they do a lot of their own ultra-miniature silicon, so they have a strong interest in this sort of tech.

Depends what you mean by "adopted". Pretty sure Intel had EUV prototypes before TSMC (or at least very close), but it was slower to transition its high volume production to it due to execution issues.

> The real tech breakthroughs came from ASML

I know this how the media portrays it now a days but there's so much more to semiconductor manufacturing than lithography, especially since the serious slowdown of lithography scaling with around 193 and 193i litho.

Great example is GlobalFoundry which sent its EUV machine back because it realized it could not compete on the R&D needed to keep up with the other foundries.

EUV by ASML was not possible until there was a technology to create focusing lenses for it. Intel decided not to "wait" and use their existing technology to beat everyone.

On the nanoprint technology: as far as I understand it, this will have economic advantages in trailing nodes but is not currently seen as a way to scale past EUV.

IDK about Philips but ASML follows US export restrictions due to a deal it agreed to when it bought a US company a few decades ago, yes.

> Is the TSMC part of the stack that special in terms of actual IP (versus more squishy organizational know-how)?

I don't want to go into too many details as I work in the Intel Foundry but it's certainly both. We'd be very happy to know how TSMC does some specific things, let me put it that way. At the same time, our execution has been dubious since 10 nm.

From Wikipedia:

> In 1997, ASML began studying a shift to using extreme ultraviolet and in 1999 joined a consortium, including Intel and two other U.S. chipmakers, in order to exploit fundamental research conducted by the US Department of Energy. Because the CRADA it operates under is funded by the US taxpayer, licensing must be approved by Congress.

So, banking is not exactly something that the US can use to coerce a European company. There are much more effective avenues for coercion, though. But IIRC, in this case, the US gov basically convinced the Dutch gov that making ASML adhere to US restrictions would be in the best interest of both of them, and not much coercion was necessary. After all, both countries are on the same side when it comes to the system conflict with China.

Philips has only kept its expertise in medical devices and a large pool of patents for many technologies (MPEG-2, H264, Ambilight, BluRay, OLED, etc.)

I have lived in the Bay Area my entire adult life. We used to have Halted/HSC, we used to have Weird Stuff. We used to have Triangle Machinery Co in Santa Clara. Now everything is gone.

I think it’s great that we built a semiconductor manufacturing plant. That’s important for strategic manufacturing. But we’ve so thoroughly destroyed our manufacturing base, let the factories rot, and financialized property value that the “weird place with random electronics” can no longer even afford to do business. Starbucks makes more money, so in it goes.

US politicians love to shout about manufacturing. “Manufacturing jobs jobs economy growth.” But these people DO NOT understand how things get made. They have no serious industrial policy. They do not know the value of a high speed train connecting manufacturing centers. And even if they did, the entire apparatus of our government is set up to stop it.

Manufacturing workers need education. They need housing, transit, health care, maternity and sick leave. They need secure jobs and extra income that allows them time off to take classes to learn new skills.

I’m glad we passed the inflation reduction act, and the CHIPS act. We need that investment. But it’s going to take much more than that to “bring manufacturing back” and I’ve have seen time and time again that we do not have the vision or capability to move in the ways that would be required.

I hope manufacturing comes back. We desperately need it. But I’m quite frustrated that despite some marginal progress, the serious changes we need are not on the horizon nor seemingly beyond it.

You'll also see people doing complex repairs of mobile phones sitting on a stool on the sidewalk. The level of skill and access to tools/spare parts that is endemic there is completely different than the US.

Ignoring how we define "serious", they do have an industrial policy. You just may not agree with the wisdom of the outcomes wrought by the regulatory regime. I don't know how you ever compete with the developing world that has a surplus of people and comparatively lax regulatory framework for everything from labor to the environment.

The policy is to move all the dirty work to someone else's back yard. It seems to work as long as the shipping lanes stay open and the other economies have something to gain (room to grow and raise standards of living).

Whose policy? Like, which politicians and what exactly is their policy?

Because that sounds more like the kind of thing people say they are trying to do, while hiding the fact that they are doing something different.

>Production offshoring, also known as physical restructuring, of established products involves relocation of physical manufacturing processes overseas,[22] usually to a lower-cost destination or one with fewer regulatory restrictions. >Physical restructuring arrived when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) made it easier for manufacturers to shift production facilities from the US to Mexico. >This trend later shifted to China, which offered cheap prices through very low wage rates, few workers' rights laws, a fixed currency pegged to the US dollar, (currently fixed to a basket of economies) cheap loans, cheap land, and factories for new companies, few environmental regulations, and huge economies of scale based on cities with populations over a million workers dedicated to producing a single kind of product. However, many companies are reluctant to move high value-added production of leading-edge products to China because of lax enforcement of intellectual property laws.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshoring#Production_offshori...

https://theweek.com/articles/486362/where-americas-jobs-went

https://www.economist.com/media/globalexecutive/outsourcing_...

On-shoring top-tier manufacturers like is absolutely a win not just for the high-tech manufacturing sector but also for the US and allied countries.

>This is great news, and we should celebrate.

Couldn't agree more.

Now, with some US based production, TSMC is still in charge, and more resilient to disruption. So it may still be a very strong move.

Reactions to active conflict have a different threshold than normal civil operations. The interests of the US are biased towards continued peace. War is inherently value destructive (even if the military industrial complex gets to sell more stuff for a bit) so a majority of the population from a multitude of perspectives would rather remain fat and happy with their circuses (sports-ball).

That balance changes, as it has since the dawn of western history times, when outside forces disrupt the regular machinations of the people. When events like Pearl Harbor, the turn of the century terrorist airplane hijackings that turned them into missiles and America's citizens into hostages to our own national security theater paranoia, or some country turning the place all of our iPhone and computer brains are fabricated in into a war zone.

You are protecting your ego. The modern circus is the algorithmic feed. And we are consuming it more obsessively then any previous form of entertainment.

In a hot war, they'd absolutely do the first bit.

I don't think they need to do the second bit.

Taiwan has significant leverage in this respect

If China would just wipe out Taiwan's ability produce chips, and disables part of the US information tech supply chain, then it would be bad for Taiwan right?

> US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated

I’d suggest you post a small/medium quantity machining RFP on MFG.com with a medium to high complexity. I’ve been quite discouraged that US vs China price differences are 5-10x. (My part was a custom M0.8 screw in quantity ~500.)

It seems that without a vibrant base of small businesses, it will be very challenging to truly reinvigorate US manufacturing. And that would require reforming the finance sector/allocation of capital that currently is skewing really heavily towards “scale”.

The NK situation was obviously widely known at the time, but that the US population/government didn't forsee or take seriously enough the rise of China is perplexing to some of its allies.

The idea of economically enforced peace only works for democratic countries where the government has to show at least a bare minimum of respect towards its citizens, but not in countries that follow the whims of their respective Dear Leader.

At the time international trade was still fairly minor, so although a war would be deeply unprofitable it'd still be possible. Today's economy looks quite different, with even basic consumer goods coming from overseas. If international trade were to suddenly cease, most major countries would be in serious trouble really quickly.

The most extreme example of this is the European Union. Its economies are so deeply interwoven that they act as a single entity. Separating them to the point that one of its members can independently support a war economy would take decades, so it does indeed make intra-European wars virtually impossible.

The whole same story is going to play out again and in 20 years we'll be panicking because nobody in the US will know how to write software anymore.

I don't think USA made any mistake. It was always heavily invested in South Korea and Taiwan. Neither of them would even exist today without USA's investment, interest, and stewardship.

Intel is the one that made the mistake.

However, since China has expressed interest in war with Taiwan (not a thing advised by the free market), someone needs to address that.

In terms of economics, this is a net loss, but then again, the effects of war in Taiwan would be worse.

But I agree on the sentiment: everybody seems to have decided the state should control the market even further than it did three decades ago. Free market was never given a chance.

(Your comment made me giggle so I went looking for more banter on a potential blog, sorry for creeping up)

China's gonna be a bit salty though.

What I really want them building in America though is low-end AMD chips for development boards.

4-Core/8-Thread CPU, 4-Core GPU, 16 GB ram, sane IO, and however many of Xilinx's FPGAs they can put on it without overdoing it.

People would be able to make some pretty decent things with that.

I get what you're saying and I agree, but there's some heavy irony in saying that considering that's exactly how TSMC started out but from the opposite side; Transferring knowledge from "the west" (RCA from US and Philips) with ITRI it evolved into a project of Taiwanese state which culminated in TSMC.

Printing insane amounts of USD to allow for systemic government over-spending and huge untenable government debt doesn't go hand in hand with not importing most goods. You can't keep your currency strong if you can't force others to buy your currency.

If you have a lot of production in the US, this is going to cause hyperinflation to come sooner.

In the long term it won't matter, the end result is the same, but if production significantly moves back to the US it will be very scary from a currency perspective.

> just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy

Isn't intel one of the biggest companies in the world, makes chips for everyone and everything and based in the US?

If the marker for industrial success is supplying Apple Inc, Intel did until 2022?

TSMC's process that they are bringing to the US is 2nd tier. The crown jewels are being kept at home.

If Intel can get their act together, then we will have top tier in the US.

[1]: https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977

Taiwan's TSMC will have a process and sampling edge for the foreseeable future, unless they change the roadmap.

Don't count on it. For every high-end chip you need hundreds of commodity parts to support them, and nobody is investing in US factories to make $0.001 capacitors or $0.10 connectors. You just can't compete with cheap Chinese labor, so the US supply lines will never be able to equal a city like Shenzhen.

Unless the US is willing to get rid of capitalism and switch to a plan economy, most of those expensive high-end chips will just be shipped to Asia for assembly. So much for building your own future.

You don't need a planned economy to legislate that all of you source material must be produced in accordance to local laws.

I get the first part of your comment, but why wouldn't all the missing components be imported for assembly in the US? SMT lines in particular don't need that much cheap labour to operate. Even Brits can assemble PCBs!

It's a step in the right direction for the policy goals, but they've really just entered the woods with this one.

This is a huge milestone, but it seems a little premature.

> This is a significant win for the US, and just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy passed over the past few years.

I'm not sure these conclusions are justified. It's the 'seen vs unseen'.

And make no doubt about it, there is a democratic alliance vs dictatorships here. Russia is aggressively sourcing artillery shells from North Korea, ballistic missiles from Iran, and financing and weapons from China. China incidentally is the economic caretaker of Iran and North Korea.

US accuses China of giving ‘very substantial’ help to Russia’s war machine https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-accuse-china-h...

China’s Double Threat to Europe: How Beijing’s Support for Moscow and Quest for EV Dominance Undermine European Security https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-double-threat-eu...

I'm not sure. Taiwan is already a democratic ally. They are relying on the chip manufacture to keep them safe politically. Without that they'll quickly get "absorbed" by China.

The US decoupling and isolating technologically/economically from the rest of the world, likely makes war more likely. Not less.

They kind of do. The reason various Asian companies pulled ahead in their own respective industries is top-down leadership and support. You dump money into them, tell them what to do, and lower the overhead of competition and you can create a world-class company.

We, in the US, can't really do that. We try a little bit, but we don't fully commit so it doesn't work out.

Less of the "democracies vs dictatorships". It's more like "western imperialism (essentially US & vassals) vs the rest of the world (who wants out of imperialism, endless sanctions, endless wars, the odd genocide or two)"

"A billion people" and "thousands year old civilization" are also Chinese talking points I've noticed. Hence why I included it in my comment, to both call out the really degrading "vassals" narrative and also point out these dictatorships aren't as special as they like to pretend.

No, they aren't. Having allied forces deployed on your soil by mutual agreement is not occupation.

> Once a US base gets established in your territory, you can never get it out.

There are quite a long list of counterexamples; the US has closed lots of overseas bases (both in countries that remain on good terms with the US and in those where the relationship soured.)

> Just ask the Iraqi's.

"Iraqis", and the US closed large numbers of Iraqi bases in the 2020-2021 drawdown and the US and Iraq are currently (last I checked) in discussions on a complete drawdown of US military presence which would close the remaining bases.

My bet is that TSMC recognizes they are a crazy geopolitical pawn. And is frankly playing their part.

Once China develops chip production abilities similar (but not necessarily better) to TSMC, they’re free to destroy Taiwan. Then they’ll be the sole cutting-edge producer, meaning that everyone will continue to do business with them despite their behavior.

TSMC and the US recognize this. If TSMC bring their tech to America, they’ll at least be safe to continue manufacturing (“for the shareholders”). It also is self-serving because it changes the geopolitical game. It increases the risks to China of an invasion, and favors to the US increase the odds of US intervention (good for their patriotism).

Finally, it’s pretty well established that the US defense industry prefers local factories for security purposes. They’re obviously interested in preserving this ability domestically, and most companies recognize that and accommodate.

TSMC is in an extremely precarious geopolitical situation; China's hardball is a lot scarier than Trump's. Expanding their geographical redundancy through billions in handouts is pretty appealing to investors.

1. China is less likely to secure a semiconductor advantage over the West, if TSMC has a US location. Instead, China is likely to take out the nearby, high quality fab, and whatever they are left with domestically is more likely to be inferior to distant capabilities.

2. Because of #1, China is less likely to secure a massive advantage over the US by invading Taiwan; as a result the US may feel it less likely to support Taiwan.

I'm inclined to think #1 is the more important one. #1 makes the risk of an invasion much higher. #2 makes the reward for an intervention somewhat lower, but I don't think it changes China's calculation of how likely the US is to intervene that much.

> > China is likely to take out the nearby, high quality fab

Yes.

If China's domestic fabs are second best or close --- and China may manage to crawl into this position --- destroying the best fab increases their relative standing and significantly hurts Western security. Whatever crumbs they get from Taiwan (the proportion of expertise that decides to roll over and help, and whatever capital equipment survives to be reverse engineered) are just a bonus.

If China's domestic fabs are not --- because there's a fab tied for first place in North America-- destroying the neighboring fab that they benefit from clearly doesn't benefit them.

I get the spirit, but flyover country is not doing great. Unemployment is rising and there is a severe lack of decent paying jobs. Chips are great, but everything else is made in Asia. Increased automation is making a ton of jobs obsolete and there is no solution in sight yet. Chips ain't gonna do it.

The investment in factories is absolutely massive over the past few years. The Inflation Reduction Act is bringing massive amounts of manufacturing into the US, starting with the lowest value add of assembly, and after that additional suppliers lower down the chain will be built up too.

It is not SV reinvigorating the economy, it's not happening in SV, it's happening in small towns all over the country. It's happening due to the bills that Democrats passed over Republican opposition, but because of politics, it's not being trumpeted as a partisan win in the towns where factories are being built.

The fascinating thing is people don't want to believe this. They'll make every excuse before admitting that it's true. They want to be in a declining empire when the reality is the opposite.

Democratic* and also, no.

> US-made automobiles are the most advanced

You may be living in a different country then, given how impressive Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid are.

> And it's simply not true

Except it is, you're proving my point

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqhTRQ--x_Q #video on #China/#USA politics trying to keep out electric vehicles with 100% tariffs while US car companies spend their government EV research grants on stock buybacks. High-end electric cars, electric dumptrucks, and even electric mopeds support battery-change recharging; it’s commercially deployed. They’re very impressed with how advanced all the Chinese cars are, and also positively impressed with how accommodating the auto parts manufacturers they met with were, especially by contrast to US and Canadian companies.

a thing i didn't mention in that bookmark is that the prc-company-made equivalent to the (prc-made) tesla model y (still the most popular car in the prc) is one fourth of the price

the video itself is only incidentally political; it's a 'custom car build show' from canada with 700k subscribers which primarily focuses on things like engine performance, welding machines, impact wrenches, and fixing dilapidated machinery. but a month ago the guys that make the show decided to go to china to see if they could source some car parts for their custom builds, and they were absolutely blown away by how much more advanced chinese cars were than usa-made cars, to the point that they filled a half-hour video mostly marveling at that

to me this seemed relevant to the thread

______

† i'm interested in things that seem likely to result in hundreds of millions of deaths in the next few years, so there are lots of entries about drones and the ukraine war too, for example

The USSR also had fanatical members of the Youth Comsomol who'd loudly denounce anyone who questioned the party line as either insane or "anti-Soviet". That's what you and your comrades are doing.

But really, it doesn't matter if Pravda reports a new record in farm production every other week - the people still see the empty shelves in the grocery stores.

US manufacturing growth is manufactured as follows: use tariffs to ban much cheaper (and frequently better) goods and demand that they are produced locally. Or even better: make components for a fleet of ships that costs $4B each and that nobody needs and that gets canceled (see: Zumwalt). Step 2: use the ridiculously inflated costs as proof that manufacturing is growing (hey, you just need a big number).

Meanwhile, back in reality

Bloomberg: US South Accounts for Lion’s Share of Factory Construction Boom https://archive.is/URbMw

Bloomberg Video from a year ago "factory construction has doubled": https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-06/the-america...

"So one was just like, "Oh yeah, they got those higher starting wages." If you're walking in with no background in manufacturing, no skills that you could point to, the starting wages are in the like $17.50 to $22 an hour range depending on the role" https://www.volts.wtf/p/how-is-new-clean-energy-manufacturin...

This is not from tariffs, it's from carrots in tax incentives, used to build up the entire supply chain, not just a few factories.

If you have empty shelves in grocery stores, where the hell are you living? You expect me to not believe my own eyes, and imagine some empty grocery store shelves? If so, it's your own area's politics that are causing the problem. Wages are waaaaay up, especially on the lower end, much less on the top end.

The economy in the US is blowing away China, Europe, etc. We are so strong right now. If you are not doing well in your own micro area, look internally to see how your area is fucking up so much when there's opportunity everywhere.

Starting wages increasing by 20% for the first time in a decade doesn't even keep up with inflation.

You are so strong you have to completely change trade policy to a protectionist one. China is the one to watch for the next decade.

I don't think so. Rather, we are being told repeatedly that investment in factories is real bad and we should just continue to do what we did. We, then, respond to that - and that gets interpreted as "oh so you don't believe the situation is getting better?"

It is getting better, but there's still a lot of opposition and the opposition still needs to be addressed and their concerns heard.

Legal immigrants with special protected status, Medicare coverage, and some basic income from the government are given these manufacturing jobs because then the investors don't have to pay for health benefits, can severely under pay, plus they have the bonus of having a desperate, captive workforce.

The investment class thinks workers need to be knocked down a couple pegs. This stuff will not end well.

Is this like the people that credited current infrastructure improvements to his infrastructure week that didn't happen?

All he’s proposing is 10-20% universal tariffs that’ll raise the cost of off-season fruits and in-season coffee by 10-20%.

It’s only a start, but it’s a huge deal in an economic, technological and geopolitical context.

Maybe next week a run of Qualcomm Snapdragon Elite will begin production, for example. Is that second set of orders what you’re awaiting?

Oh i'm going to be downvoted into oblivion for this one.... but I think this is a win we can give to Trump. It was a hard focus of his, I think he put the right people in place to do it, and I think time is going to prove he was right to do it.

I didn't vote for him in 2016, but I think it's important to acknowledge it.

I think when the Trump admin renegotiated trade policies (and I'll given Biden credit for keeping them) the economic incentives were rebalanced. I think the result is complex/low volume manufacturing is starting to return to the US, and simple high volume manufacturing is moving to Mexico (which we have a very good relationship with... i'll discredit Trump for being so stupidly aggressive with them in the first few months of his administration though)

I don't consider it a win. I consider it a loss. This is a desperate move by the US. Intel making better chips then TSMC is a win. The government strong arming Taiwan with "protection" from China in order to gain this technology is a display of American incompetence.

But then again maybe is't not about fair play. If the US wins by unfair means, it's still a win? A pathetic win but a win none the less.

Whether that's fair or not, who really cares, what can we do about it

I still think it’s better if intel was able to pull it off, but i don’t think us Americans have the capability.

Meanwhile in China, 1000 engineers (to one in the US) are building all kinds of electronics and embedded systems on shoestring budgets that truly force them to learn engineering. China's industrial policy architects are likely laughing at this big folly on the part of the US.

The worst is the 100% tariff on EVs which keeps the US in an artificial economy of gigafactory, high-end nonsense when the rest of the world will be getting true economies of scale from EVs which are actually simple, reliable and low cost.

It's deeply embarrassing that the US must suffer poltical rule of its economy along with the double embarrassment of seeing other nations do it so much more effectively.

Industrial policy should be measured in terms of person months of career acceleration (experience) per dollar. The US focuses on helping prolong the dominance of internal combustion engines and taxing high profile, high-end companies that do not offer skills that transfer well into the rest of the economy. How many Apples are there? Will forcing manufacture in the US suddenly result in another company doing 2nm process and competing with Apple? It's absurd.

I know of a variety of small and medium sized US tech companies (aerospace and 3d printing / robotics) that were almost sunk by US "industrial policy" becasue they relied on a small number of China-manufactured inputs that suddenly became unavailable, forcing unplanned re-engineering and work the companies could not afford. Sadly, one went under. Meanwhile, the US firms that import finished goods are thriving selling Chinese manufactured gear -- Chinese companies didn't have to pay US tariffs on the same inputs. Utterly absurd.

Politicians should stay out of the economy and focus on moving us closer to nuclear war and promoting the religion of American Exceptionalism.

Sounds about right but how would you come close to measuring that?

> other nations do it so much more effectively

China hsa an actual strategy, not just an attempt for politicians to pay lip service and win a few rust belt states.

Also, China had a policy for years of dramatically suppressing its economy, so of course a few small changes result in massive growth (once some of the suppression was removed).

On the other hand, this is a protectionist policy that has been straining US' relations with its allies. That development means the US empire is a little less mutually beneficial, and a little more beneficial to the core.

Its success requires these allies not to reciprocate, and this is a long-term prospect that only time will confirm.

> "Design is the U.S.'s competitiveness. On the other hand, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have competitiveness in manufacturing...It's also about the work culture and the people."

> The TSMC founder cited chip production equipment as an example. Because these machines are so expensive, they need to be running 24 hours a day to justify their cost. "If it breaks down at 1 in the morning, in the U.S. it will be fixed in the next morning, but in Taiwan, it will be fixed at 2 a.m."

> "If an engineer [in Taiwan] gets a call when he is asleep, he will wake up and start dressing. His wife will ask: 'What's the matter?' He would say: 'I need to go to the factory.' The wife will go back to sleep without saying another word," Chang said. "This is the work culture."

[1]: https://archive.ph/LqV4M

Expecting a worker to come to the factory out of fear or good will is not the way. Just write it into the contract/expectations/evaluations.

There's a rate for simply being on call (you'll get paid extra without even getting any calls), there's a rate that gets summed on top for actually working off hours and this rate increases depending on the time of the day you worked, whether it's the weekend or a holiday.

When the machines need to be running 24/7, why do they not hire qualified workforce that runs in 3 shifts?

Or, hopefully, the engineer who is paid to fix it is paid for their time.

Not saying any of these specifics are true, but framing it as work-ethic is not accurately capturing why it is more expensive to run factories in one country vs another.

> Three months after TSMC announced further delays at its $40 billion Arizona fabs, the chip manufacturer has now said the plant is expected to be operating at full capacity by the end of [2024].

> The announcement comes several weeks after it was first reported that TSMC is set to be awarded more than $5 billion in federal grants under the US CHIPS and Science Act…

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-thin...

It will be interesting to see how much they bump up the RAM for Apple Intelligence.

New SE models tend to launch in March or April.

I’m just telling you that if it follows past SE pattern it’ll be an A18. And they won’t skimp on the RAM because Apple Intelligence is clearly going to be rolled out across their entire product line.

2 + 2 = A18 with 8GB of RAM

Apple rarely backports new tech to older devices. It probably could run on the older chips, but it doesn't look like Apple isn't going for the widest possible rollout. They are launching it for the newest chips only, and are not wasting time porting it to old chips, when they don't even know yet how it's going to scale. So right now they are focussing on English speaking markets and newest devices only.

They are skating to where the puck is going to be, and in a few years no-one will care if their tech runs on the A16 or not. Right now they are focussing on getting this thing launched, and backward compatibility would only slow them down.

And its a selling point to get people to buy new iPhones, so it's win/win for Apple.

I'll give an example:

The iOS 18 photos app, without "Apple Intelligence", still has an improved search function. This is driven of course by a new AI model that tags images with more detail and fidelity than earlier iterations.

However "Apple Intelligence" also features further upgrades to photo searching where a user can request images with highly specific details, expressions or interactions. The example they give is "Katie with stickers on her face", and beta testers have shown examples which demonstrate that other than just tagging individual objects, those items themselves are described and searchable. (E.g. The difference is like between being able to search for photos with a "dress", versus "a red dress", "a wedding dress", "wearing polka dot dress", etc.)

If Apple can profitably provide AI services without breaking privacy laws but their competitors can't Apple wins.

Apple Intelligence requires deep access to user data, systems apps, etc to make it useful.

Under the DMA, Apple would be required to also offer similar functionality to competitors (e.g. Google).

No sane person actually thinks Apple isn’t private enough for EU standards, they’re just not being allowed to compete because they aren’t allowing anyone else access to local user context, which would be a privacy nightmare if done incorrectly.

Apple Intelligence is a set of features for a platform (iOS) which the EU has determined to be a Gatekeeper platform which comes with special restrictions and oversight.

There's a regulatory difference between that and just releasing an LLM accessible via the web or an app download.

Some states have less regulations than others. He said if he tried that in California, it would take an unlimited and indefinite time to complete (100 years+) due to so many permits and regulations.

Arizona isn't water rich, but it manages to keep the 4 million people around Phoenix hydrated, so there is water.

is anyone else besides Intel making ~4nm* node wafers on US soil?

*yes I know I know I know about the misnomer with using nm measurements nowadays

Intel's Lunar Lake low-power laptop processors shipping in a week will be the first all-TSMC x86 processor from Intel. Their desktop/high-power laptop processors (Arrow Lake) will also be all-TSMC, and should be launching this fall. After that, Intel intends to resume using their own fabs for consumer processors with their 18A process. There are some datacenter processors using "Intel 3" and the 20A process was cancelled in favor of the more fully-featured 18A.

(In case of nitpicks: Intel is also manufacturing the silicon interposers that the chiplets are mounted on, but since these dies are completely passive and have no transistors, I'm not giving them credit.)

Moreover, the new Intel 4 process had low fabrication yields, so Intel has produced less Meteor Lake CPUs than it could have sold.

Nevertheless, the Intel 4 process has demonstrated a much greater energy efficiency than the previous Intel 7 process, which is why the Meteor Lake CPUs beat easily the older Intel CPUs in multithreaded benchmarks, where the CPU performance is limited by the power consumption.

Is it possible that an adversary to implement a backdoor into a chip design, without Apple noticing it?

I'm not a chip designer so perhaps the answer is obvious to some of you guys, but I'd expect some verification mechanism at Apple's side of the manufactured chips to match their original design to verify that they aren't tampered with?

Manufacturing chips in the US means the DoD can investigate the acutal fabs and put cleared personnel on the manufacturing line to make sure nothing untoward is going on. Another strategy is to investigate the chip after it's been manufactured somewhere else and prove that it's the same chip you designed, but that's quite difficult.

If you're interested you can read up on the Trusted & Assured Microelectronics (T&AM) program.

If an adversary wants to deny access to a fab on American soil they'll need to deny access to dependencies or attack the fab itself.

That's interesting...do you have any specifics?

Don't these chips still need to be sent to China for assembly by Foxconn? If anything this will increase costs even more and seems like import fees could potentially be even higher due to the current US-China trade war. Unless there is a plan to assemble everything in the US/Mexico as well. But then the costs would be way higher to assemble outside of China: certainly in US but probably also in Mexico, and I don't think they have any factories there.

$100/$150 would be the "shelf price" of the Apple chips if they were in a box for sale like an Intel/AMD one

I believe you that the cost of the delivered (roll of) plastic chips is 50% bigger in the US. Probably less but it might be (also need to include the logistic cost to send it back to assembly on iPhone, etc)

Apple (pre-)pays for stuff and probably doesn't have any orders where Qty is under 7 digits with these big vendors.

i.e. we don't want [Russia/China/Whoever] to invade Country X as Country X is an ally and a democracy, but as Country X has [Oil fields/Chip Fab/Lithium Mine] we REALLY don't want them to invade.

Even a successful invasion of taiwan guarantees either the people important to the fab will leave, and the equipment evacuated, or destroyed if unable to evacuate.

Stating that the US has no allies other than Israel is unequivocally false.

If that's not an alliance, then you might as well say that alliances don't exist anywhere. (And maybe that is what you mean to say.)

Even the alliance with Israel can't compete with the alliance between the US and UK from World War I to now.

Sure these don't have the scope or number of transistors of like an NVIDIA Blackwell or something but in terms of performance/watt these are ultra high-end ICs.

To make it worse, they arent even the best. Its getting mid tier, and in 2024, its nearly unreasonable to buy mid-tier when low-tier is good enough for everything.

Also not sure what that has to do with the original point, which is that the A15 is not an impressive chip to be manufacturing in the US because it's designed by apple and meant for mobile devices, neither of which are reasons to discount the complexity of the chip.

We do need latest edge tech to be within our borders and TSMC and Samsung will deliver that in 2-3 years.

1. The output of a "chip manufacturing" process is a wafer. There is absolutely further assembly (bonding, packaging) done on this output.

2. The chips themselves are not for the end user's consumption. They are assembled into a product, a "consumer electronic".

In recent times, multi-chiplet architecture has added its own layer of complexity to that process.

See also: OSAT.

Hardly a big win.

From the conversations about China catching up on smaller chips I got the impression that it takes loads of iterations around how to calibrate the machines but it seems TSMC nailed it not only on Taiwan but also overseas very fast.

Covid showed this well, despite being allies, countries tended to get vaccines to their own people first, even breaking agreements with allies. That's likely normal, and a bit of mutual distrust is healthy.

I wonder if the strategy behind the CHIPS act is to have enough “backup” capacity in the US that it isn’t completely vulnerable.

I'm not even Taiwanese, don't know anyone of Taiwanese descent well, and I don't want Taiwan invaded.

The suggestion that there's some kind of weird oligarchy class of TSMC-controlling Taiwanese who couldn't give a toss if Taiwan was invaded is a mustache-twirling level of caricature.

This claim is based on... Them wanting not to be invaded?

If anything they had the foresight and took advantage of US companies not wanting to fab their chips at higher prices domestically. This has led to cooperation between the two.

I see this argument in some fashion every day, claiming US allies are puppets. When in fact, they just find commonalities and cooperate.

Plus, if US has skill shortage, can't imagine how bad it would be in EU.

...wait, M4 will be 3 generations old by then? W-well, a little reliance on Taiwan never hurt anyone...

Also kudos to CHIPS act.

I'd rather have Boeing and Intel wither off, for them to be replaced by new players who bring highly efficient manufacturing to the table.

Even Apple has their own fab.

According to some reports they may be developing micro-LED display tech there, not necessarily chips.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40772224

Find me a modern US exec willing to actually invest in a risky hardware prospect, rather than throwing a billion dollars into real estate or "content" that can be filled with ads.

With the benefit of hindsight, it feels more like Intel and Apple were in a race to see who would outsource the Mac chip first. Since Apple already had the supply chain set up for the iPhone, cutting Intel out of the equation was mostly just a matter of designing an SOC. They took the opportunity, and now we're seeing Intel glumly admit that they too can be energy-efficient if they swallow their pride and pay TSMC.

TSMC and other ASML customers build the designs that let those fancy printers create transistors and then logic gates, as well as a basic library of arrangements for those logic gates (PDK). They also provide all of the raw materials and processes and physics that go into said printers.

Apple and other design customers then compile RTL using that PDK to produce a design that can be manufactured using the fab’s process steps.

The printers are A hard part but far from The hard part. If you have an ASML machine it is useless to you unless you have also figured out how to build a 3D transistor in layers. Good luck!

There's a lot of steps between circuit design on the PDK to a working high volume process; and ASML machines are only part of that.

Nonetheless if it was as simple as buying ASML boxes there would be more than one fab at the top of the heap, and there isn't. TSMC absolutely "contributes" to their own dominance, arguing otherwise is silly.

I can think of a lot of negative/zero sum things that have next to no return or longer term advantage than monopoly seeking or greater foolism. They already got plenty of investment when interest rates were near zero.

If there hadn't already been a significant semiconductor industry, or if there was some similar employment for those employees/grads to go maybe it would be different. If there wasn't large local demand for the product (and I'm including the packaging which is another issue) it would be different. Given what the US has it makes long term sense to put some 4nm and even 2nm Fabs in the US. Creating geopolitical risk by outsourcing ALL supply is sort of silly, quarterly profits be damned. (even $50B is <0.2% of annual GDP).

Taiwan doesn't have a "natural climate for chipmaking". In a modern industrial economy, endowments are not natural/fixed by the result of previous rounds of investment.

> what high tech sectors will the US necessarily be investing in less now that we are putting those valuable resources into chip-making?

There is no evidence it is actually zero-sum

> especially with current immigration restrictions on high tech workers.

Yes, more immigration would be greatly appreciated. Probably won't happen until we unfuck housing, however.

This theory has always been an overly simplistic model designed to promote the ideology of free trade. The most obvious problem with it is that it only works in a static world where everything stays the same and as such specializing makes sense. But the world isn't like that, and if everybody invests only in the places where they have a comparative advantage, then you have set up a trade network that is very vulnerable to asymmetric shock: if one good becomes irrelevant or too desired, then the system starts failing.

Germans are learning it the hard way now that ICE cars are getting out of fashion.

As always, there's a yield/resilience trade off, and at nation scale, favoring yield is a recipe for disaster.

Sadly, "the hard way" is the only way Germany learns lessons. All that national pride on German ICEs is coming home to roost. I remember when I was working for a large German auto company a while back, a division manager laughed at a Chinese auto company in a presentation that "they have tradition since 1995 lol". The arrogance aged like milk.

It's not a nation that values proactive thinking and adapting to change but stubborn pride and conservativism.

It's a massive tax on the economy all to provide a tiny bit of welfare to a small number of workers. Better to just pay them a welfare check!

This has little to do with welfare and everything to do with national security.

A lot of the boom in EV and battery production is happening in the US southeast (Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina). The TSMC factory is in Arizona.

What position is the US in if all their goods are manufactured abroad? What if the dollar stops being respected?

For example, a major push to bring more semiconductor production to the US was motivated by supply shortages during the COVID pandemic.

A globally interconnected and inter-tangled trade economy has a lot of benefits, but it can also be disrupted. So some degree of resilience against this kind of disruption may be beneficial.

From the perspective of Trump, those shortages were a good thing because they forced US firms to find other inputs and to resent China and feel suspicious of relationships they had depended on for years.

A friend of mine whose company ultimately failed due to the tariff-induced shortages watched his 90% US-based manufacturing business go under after it couldn't keep up with lower-cost Chinese-manufactured goods -- Chinese manufacturers got all the parts cheaper with no tariffs so their resulting BOM cost was a lot lower. All because he did most of it in the US and relied upon a small number of Chinese manufactured parts.

Lesson learned. Now he isn't even in business anymore so there are fewer voices to complain about the tariffs.

What position is a homeowner in when they decide to hire someone else to mow their lawn? Economic specialization generally a good thing.

US politicians get enamored by industrial policy when they see what happened to the "asian tiger" economies over the past decades. They forget that those nations were so destroyed by war that the "growth" was less due to the policies than to the people's motivation to live in a free and peaceful society.

China is also now the poster child for industrial policy. China had many years of intentional economic suppression in the name of societal harmony (preventing chaos resulting from some regions being poor and isolated and others being rich). In recent years China has managed to use some of the wealth to undertake a social policy (plus industrial policy) of bringing wealth from the coastal manufacturing regions into the agricultural regions, training workers, etc.

Even in spite of all this, China's GDP is still significantly lower than it would be without all the policies, but the societal order is preserved and there is likely greater social stability.

China faces unique challenges in these areas relative to other countries (largely due to geography) which is why it had suppressed its economy so much for so long.

We are getting a glimpse at what a modern approach to Chinese capitalism will look like and it has already left the US in the dust in terms of productivity. It's ironic that the US mis-attributes the success to the industrial policy rather than to the repeal of it.

It's not wrong, it's one strategy given the political goals of a nation. There are other strategies and other goals, like economic liberalism.

Saying a behavior or approach is wrong and/or outdated shows a particular misunderstanding of what policy is for.

What "most" economists believe in the West (and "believe in" is a perfect way to put it, because it's a belief) is economic liberalism. Underlying/embedded in that belief are a number of assumptions, policy goals, and desired outcomes.

For a limited subset of countries on earth that worldview has been incredibly successful. However, for the vast majority of countries on earth economic liberalism has been a failure, and a costly one.

Unfortunately, there aren't many new alternatives out there, and the current system is heavily biased towards economic liberalism.

But it's important to remember that all this is relatively new. The era of modern states is relatively new, and the current postwar order is well, 80 years old or so. The Wealth of Nations was only published in 1776, Report on Manufctures was in 1791, and Das Kapital was in 1867.

I don't think economists are ideologically opposed to central planning. There are simply enough empirical studies that show how badly it fails. In fact most of the "economic liberalization" failure stories you refer to are actually centrally planned thefts that benefit specific firms but were sold as liberalization.

China is an example of a state that does very smart central planning. Everything from its central bank to its subsidization of small businesses doing embedded systems (hence all the super cheap gear on Amazon sent via subsidized shipping to customers around the world) is intended to enhance the capability of the workforce and guide the workforce toward a future of technological change and rapid (but not too rapid) advancement.

In other words, China's industrial policy is forward-looking, America's is backward-looking. The very phrase "Make America Great Again" is backward-looking.

China's policy is essentially an education policy disguised as trade policy. Corporate espionage leads to more knowledge, subsidized shipping leads to more low-end consumer devices and engineers who need to learn to build them, etc. There thousands and thousands of low-end consumer electronics, test equipment, etc., manufactured in China that are built upon the many low-end DSP chips and microcontrollers. This is not an Apple-esque 2nm process, it's much lower tech, lower cost but it offers far, far better experience to so many more workers than all but the best educational background can offer. What percentage of first or second year US EE grads could build and ship a $50 spectrum analyzer?

In my view, China has already overtaken the US in key areas of technological innovation and the US is "copying" by deploying industrial policy that has the opposite effect and entrenches and protects top US firms while having minimal educational impact on US workers and minimal impact on educational and early career choices for US workers.

You know what? I like when jobs are based in America because people need domestic careers that can sustain communities. There are non-monetary costs to outsourcing that are not mere quantities for an economist to decide for us.

Ross Perot was wildly successful running on a platform like this, at least relative to any other third party in American politics, and as soon as he appeared to be a threat to the establishment, strange stuff started happening to him much like the assassination attempts in this election.

The US grew economically due to the interstate commerce clause prohibiting states from imposing tariffs on each other, and now we are supposed to believe that Trump and Perot are economic geniuses because they want to subsidize coal extraction and tax EVs so that Americans have to pay double?

Most of the big wars started because countries got protectionist and isolated and had no economic reason not to fight each other.

All manufacturing will need to become local in some quantity for any country serious about its security.

Yes, economically in the short term (< 50 yrs) putting your eggs in your few specialized industries will give you big economic growth. But, in the long term this is economically extremely risky - because you're relying on remaining competitive in those few, high price, more advanced industries. If that happens to change, you're screwed.

And it CAN change due to geopolitical factors (something economists don't understand). A dictatorship of the future can 100% make more efficient supply lines than you. Even somewhere in-between and you can be screwed - just look at the Chinese automobile industry.

For decades, the automobile industry has been the darling child of the US. This has, and will continue, to no longer be the case. The reality is China subsidizing their industry and providing top-down support means they can make better cars cheaper. The only reason this hasn't completely fucked that portion of our economy is because we don't let them in.

We can't keep outsourcing all our manufacturing while we sit on our asses and rely on our darling child industries to grow.

Take a look at what happened during the global communist revolutions. Those communist countries were scary to us because they have the potential to make more shit and make it cheaper. They can out manufacture us.

Luckily we were not completely braindead (and the tech did not exist) to outsource our manufacturing to them. But if we did, it could have been catastrophic for our economy in the long-term.

- Electric vehicles are inherently much cheaper and have way fewer moving parts. Just because an entry level internal combustion vehicle costs $25K doesn't mean an EV has to. But with 100% tariffs it can!

- Every day that American workers spend building heavily government subsidized internal combustion powered vehicles is a day we fall farther and farther behind. All those low-end "hoverboards" that everyone bought a few years ago, all the electric scooters. The engineers who design those in China are the ones designing low-cost EVs that utterly out-compete what the US can do. US policy to subsidize mediocrity (Tesla, over-priced, over-hyped, impossible to maintain) HARMS the entire US economy. How many people need to pay an extra $500 to $1000 a month in payments that are effectively a subsidy of outdated tech? Most people with a car payment are doing just that.

Meanwhile we keep getting into wars over petrol which is why we don't keep track of how much we spend on the military because nobody cares, of course it's worth it to keep the oil flowing!

Economics is about information. Price is a function of supply and demand. As much as governments may wish that internal combustion tech was competitive with low-cost EV tech, it's not. As much as everyone wishes healthcare was free, it's not. We have to choose our subsidies wisely. US industrial policy is a disaster and it is fraught with so many misconceptions.

If it's really a national security issue, where is the US stockpile of raw steel, copper, lithium, 555 timers, etc.? Politicians would rather rant and impose tariffs and get photo-ops near coal factories than actually do something simple and strategic that would take away the possibility that a conflict would disrupt crucial supply chain.

Economic specialization is a good thing. Economies are not so simple as importer and exporter. Most companies are both importers and exporters. China's government knows this and adopts sensible policies like subsidizing oceanic shipment of goods so that shipping costs of the $25 electronic device aren't $100. This lets an engineer build and sell something and learn and grow.

China has an economically-aware industrial policy, the US has a backward-looking, short-term, electorally driven one.

It comes at the cost of many, many Chinese jobs in the midst of a devastating economic downturn there. They are victims of repeated local and geopolitical malpractice by the current emperor.

EDIT: User lotsofpulp pointed out that we don’t make any strategic chips in China. That is of course true. I meant that the game of economic chess played by the current and previous administrations has been highly effective in reducing China’s options.

As far as I know, TSMC does not make chips in China.

Trump started trade wars by raising tariffs. Biden passed the CHIPS act, the infrastructure bill, and the build back better act.

Surely a better path would have been to slap imported silicon with tarriffs at least equal to their gov't subsidies?

(Unpopular opinion: The people that spent the last 30 years giving away US & EU manufacturing to the Far East - no doubt with plenty of "10% for the big guy" type deals behind the scenes - should all be shot.)

Why should I, as an example, who is neither a US citizen nor Taiwanese nor Chinese, should trust a chip being manufactured in the US vs. somewhere else?

I'd say it is neutral in regards to world security, not better.

Even ignoring the specific players, having critical advanced technology manufactured in more than one place increases world security. What if, say, a catastrophic earthquake were to significantly damage Taiwan's chip manufacturing? Having expertise and working, active manufacturing elsewhere is a good thing.

Sure, this costs US taxpayers a lot, but whatever, it's worth it.

"Now"? The trade war has been on since what, 2017?

> There's nothing inherently beneficial about manufacturing in the U.S. other than symbolic gestures tied to identity politics.

While I think that argument can be made in general, if you consider certain sectors and certain products, the calculus changes. Onshoring chip production is a matter of national security. Not necessarily in the "big bad China will take over Taiwan and put backdoors in our chips" sense (though that's certainly a concern), but in the sense of not being dependent upon an adversarial state for fundamental advanced technology.

> Most consumers want affordable, high-quality products

Sure, but that's not sustainable. You end up playing "chase the country with the worst worker protections". This isn't the case of chips (yet?), but there are quite a few things where China used to be the go-to for manufacturing, but production has moved elsewhere because costs went up, and it's cheaper to stop doing it in China. The long-term end result of all this is that everywhere has labor costs that have gone up enough that offshoring doesn't really buy you all that much.

Of course you can say, "okay, maybe that's true, but at least I can get my cheap iPhone now, and moving production to the US hurts that now, rather than decades from now". And I'm somewhat sympathetic to that. But ultimately Apple may just have to change how it prices things if it costs more to make iPhones. They already make solid profit on each unit, and perhaps they'll just have to make do with less of a markup.

> Instead of focusing on where products are made, the priority should be on ensuring that they are durable and not part of a system of planned obsolescence

I feel like Apple is a pretty bad example for you to use here. I had to replace my perfectly-functional, four-year-old Pixel 4 last year because it stopped getting software updates after three and a half years. Meanwhile my wife has a six-year-old iPhone that will update to the latest major version of iOS tonight, and it will likely keep getting updates for a couple more years. My new Pixel 8 will supposedly get major OS updates for seven years. If I break the screen on my phone or the battery gets bad, I can get them replaced fairly affordably. These are improvements!

Apple's repair situation is worse, but that's a choice Apple has made. If they wanted to focus on repairability, next year's iPhone would be the most repairable phone on the market. But they don't want to do that. Moving manufacturing around is orthogonal to all that.