薪资反应 - 哇!!!!!!
Payrolls Reaction - Wow!!!!!

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wow

Peter Tchir 对最近就业报告的分析表明劳动力市场强劲,就业增长集中在私营部门。 此前数据的向上修正和 4.052% 的失业率表明经济强劲。 奇尔相信这份报告支持了他的理论,即美国劳工统计局已经调整了模型,从而得出了更准确的就业预测。 然而,他认为季节性调整可能仍然存在缺陷,高估了冬季工作,低估了夏季工作。 该报告强劲的就业增长和工资上涨压力可能会促使美联储在较长时间内维持较高利率的立场。 奇尔建议谨慎对待股市,因为积极的就业报告最初可能会提振投资者的乐观情绪,但随后可能会导致股市回调。

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原文

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Trying to break this report down on live TV was quite easy.

Everything pointed to strength.

Total jobs great!

The beat was entirely in the private sector, which is where we want to see the jobs created.

UPWARD revisions.

A substantial positive revision is good.

I think it helps confirm my view that the BLS has adjusted their models and aren’t consistently overstating jobs like they were.

I continue to believe seasonal adjustments are off.

Overstating winter jobs and understating summer jobs. This report seems consistent with that.

Upward pressure on wages, and an unemployment number of 4.052% (almost got rounded down to 4%) will give the fed some pause.

Bottom line

Higher yields.

Look for 10s to breach 4% as we head into auctions.

Higher for longer.

Fed cuts should be slower and I continue to think (and the data supports it) that the current neutral rate is well above 3% (economy chugging along on 5% yields for over a year)

I’d fade the initial joy in equity land.

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