“债券 40 年牛市结束”:ZH 与 Fleckenstein、Rosenberg、Bianco 的独家辩论
"The 40-Year Bull Market In Bonds Ended": Exclusive ZH Debate With Fleckenstein, Rosenberg, Bianco

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/40-year-bull-market-bonds-ended-exclusive-debate-w-fleckenstein-rosenberg-bianco

在一场辩论中,比尔·弗莱肯斯坦、大卫·罗森伯格和吉姆·比安科讨论了国债的未来。 Bianco认为,长期经济周期将在2020年发生逆转,导致更高的名义增长率和3%的持续通胀。 他预计,由于过度刺激和 2025 年底的通胀问题,利率将稳定在 4-5% 的范围内。 罗森伯格不同意,他认为通货膨胀正在下降是由于劳动力供应的迅速增加和生产率的提高。 他将“一党统治”视为黑天鹅事件,可能会重新引发通货膨胀。 他还警告说,如果以色列和伊朗之间发生冲突,油价将会上涨,运输也会中断。 比安科坚持认为,由于房价上涨和持续的财政支出,通货膨胀将持续存在。 他认为债券市场可能会受到情绪波动的影响,质疑负利率的理由。 弗莱肯斯坦强调了美联储降息后十年内出现的不寻常抛售,而罗森伯格则将其归因于下意识的风险交易,这种情况并不少见。 比安科认为,美联储的政策受到广泛预期,并且已经反映在市场中。

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原文

Even for dollar bears, U.S. Treasury Bonds - now yielding over 4% on the 1-year - are beginning to look appealing. But are they a safe long-term play? Legendary short-seller Bill Fleckenstein hosted ZeroHedge’s first remote debate with notorious bond bull David Rosenberg and macro researcher Jim Bianco.

Enjoy the full debate here, and read below for the highlights.

Bianco’s opening argument:

"I have been of the opinion that the long-term economic cycle turned in 2020. That the 40-year bull market in bonds ended in August of 2020 when the 10-year yield hit 51 basis points on closing."

"That cycle corresponded with a financial crisis and a recession around the shutdown-restart of the economy with Covid in 2020. I believe that every time you see a financial crisis and a recession - and we had both - the economy changes."

"Coming out of that we are now in a period of higher nominal growth, stickier inflation at around 3%. First move in interest rates was from 0 to 5%. That was extraordinarily painful for any bond investor because you had no coupon to cushion you. The total return losses were among the worst ever records. But now we’re on the backside of that. We’re at a 5% yield."

Bianco predicts that interest rates along the yield curve will settle in the 4 to 5% range. They currently sit around 3.5%.

"We’re going to overstimulate and we’re going to see an inflation problem in the back half of ‘25, and the bond market will start sniffing that out well before that."

Rosie’s opener:

"If you look at the chart, there’s nothing sticky about inflation. It’s come down almost as fast as it went up."

"I don’t know so much about Jim’s comment that we’ve seen some big secular shift," he continued. "We had a severe depletion in the supply of labor [due to the pandemic] at the same time when we had no productivity growth. So we had a very inelastic supply curve for a period of about 18-24 months and it bumped against all the rampant fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus."

"In fairly short order, inflation goes from 0 to 9%."

Rosenberg sees the COVID stimulus as having largely worn off. He’s now noticing a rapidly increasing labor supply along with rising productivity while demand has not kept up… "an absolute inflation killer."

Where is inflation headed?

According to Rosenberg, pressure from the lockdowns forced businesses to "digitize and automate and become Amazon or you’re going to go under." This trend is responsible for the productivity boost as firms cut labor costs and became more efficient.

Meanwhile, Rosenberg suggests that a "One-Party Rule" - wherein either the republicans or democrats sweep both the Presidency and Congress - is a black swan event that could bring inflation back, as both parties are addicted to spending. He also predicted increasing oil prices and shipping disruptions “if the war really turns ugly” between Israel and Iran.

Of note, Iran is the 9th largest oil producer in the world, pumping 4 million barrels daily, and 3rd largest natural gas producer.

Bianco countered that inflation is here to stay due to housing prices — on a per square footage basis still increasing despite lower sales volume - driven by increased immigration as well as fiscal spending, which he sees no sign of slowing down regardless of party.

"At 23 or 24% of GDP, we are currently spending more now than did in previous recessions expect for COVID and the financial crisis [of 2008]. You look at any recession other than those, the current level of government spending is higher now than at the peak of any of those recessions."

"That alone should probably keep the inflation rate sticky because of the massive demand push that you’ll get from the government."

"Animal Spirits" in the Bond Market

While Rosenberg stated strongly that the bond market is “just math,” Bianco and Fleckenstein questioned whether bond traders are susceptible to the same emotional swings as equity traders.

Please explain to me negative interest rates,” Bianco asked. “And why bond managers were willing to buy negative interest rates?

Rosie: “Negative interest rates were perpetuated by Central Banks.”

Bianco: “Nobody forced my managers to buy negative interest rates.”

Fed Cutting Cycle

Fleckenstein highlighted the unusual sell-off in the 10-year after the Fed cut the FFR by 50 basis points (unusual because lower Fed rates typically beget lower outer yield curve rates).

"Happens almost all the time," said Rosenberg, citing several examples in recent history. “There’s always an initial knee-jerk risk-on trade after the first cut. This is actually not abnormal at all.

But is Fed policy so thoroughly telegraphed in advance that its effect on markets is largely inert? “Everybody expects interest rates to go down because they’ve been told over and over that the Fed is going to cut rates hundreds of basis points over the next year,” Bianco said, pointing to the 2-year/FFR spread at records lows (meaning the 2-year is pre-emptively leading the FFR in the downward direction at one of its largest margins in history - ie… more cuts).

It’s all priced in..."

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