Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

This is in response to Polish public opinion souring on the proxy war and the ruling liberal-globalist coalition consequently trying to exploit that in an attempt to raise the chances that their candidate replaces the outgoing conservative-nationalist president during next year’s election.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski proposed that Ukraine can order military equipment from his country on credit and then pay it back once the conflict ends in response to Zelensky complaining about Poland supposedly withholding some of its armaments such as the MiG-29 fighter jets. Sikorski also reminded Zelensky that Poland has done more for Ukraine than any other country in reference to President Andrzej Duda’s disclosure over the summer that it already gave 3.3% of its GPD to the cause.

Another important point that he made is that Poland is a “frontline country” against Russia and must therefore maintain its minimum national defense needs just in case the conflict spirals out of control. This echoed what Duda earlier said during his trip to South Korea about how:

“There is no scenario in which we hand over weapons that we have recently bought for billions of zlotys from the pockets of our taxpayers. These weapons must serve the security and defense of the Republic of Poland.”

That possibility had been discussed over the past few weeks amidst reports of North Korean troops fighting Ukraine, the rumors of which (whether true or not) were assessed here as a means for getting South Korea to send some of its enormous shell stockpile to Ukraine at this crucial moment in the conflict. Russia continues gaining ground, and its potential capture of Pokrovsk could prove to be a turning point for the reasons explained here. Even US intelligence and military officials fear the worst.

Poland’s refusal to give away any more of its military equipment for free, let alone that which it just obtained from South Korea, despite how urgent the situation has recently become isn’t surprising. Not only did it already max out everything that it can donate by this summer without endangering its minimum national defense needs, but it’s also wising up to the fact that it’s been exploited by Ukraine, which reportedly receives strings-attached military aid from everyone else but Poland.

There are also worsening political ties to consider after relations cooled over the past two months as the Volhynia Genocide dispute once again became a major issue. It’s beyond the scope of this analysis to elaborate on, but interested readers can learn more about it here, here, and here, with the takeaway being that Poland is disgusted that Ukraine refuses to exhume the victims’ remains. Sikorski and Zelensky also reportedly had a heated argument about this during the former’s visit to Kiev in mid-September.

That same report also claimed that Zelensky accused Poland of withholding military equipment from Ukraine during their argument, thus preceding what he explicitly complained about just last week. At the same time, Sikorski once again expressed support for Zelensky’s proposal that Poland intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine after the Helsinki Commission urged the US to approve this, but he also clarified that Poland won’t do so without support from NATO, which is presently lacking.

Considering this caveat and the US’ reluctance to approve direct NATO intervention in this conflict like that proposal requires, it’s likely that nothing will come of it unless hawkish American policymakers decide to “escalate to de-escalate” on more favorable terms out of desperation if the front collapses. Seeing as how there hasn’t been any serious indication of their interest in this thus far at least, it’s possible that Sikorski might be flirting with this doomed proposal to “save face” before Ukraine.

The return of the Volhynia Genocide dispute to the forefront of their political relations and Poland’s new policy of only transferring military equipment to Ukraine on credit instead of giving it away for free like before has harmed their ties so fantasizing about intercepting Russian missiles could just be a distraction. It’s a cost-free means of trying to manage their worsening ties, both in the political sphere as well as in the realm of public perceptions inside Ukraine, but some in the latter might see through this ruse.

In any case, what’s most important is that Poland is finally demanding something from Ukraine in return for all that it’s already done for it pro bono, namely the exhumation of the Volhynia Genocide victims’ remains and promises to pay for future arms imports at a later date. This new approach didn’t come about naturally but as a result to Polish society getting fed up with the proxy war as proven by a recent survey from a publicly financed research institution that was analyzed here.   

The only reason why Poland is wising up is because of next year’s presidential election that the ruling liberal-globalist coalition wants to win. Outgoing President Duda is a (very imperfect) conservative-nationalist who’s served to check returning Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ideologically driven domestic agenda. It’s therefore imperative for the ruling coalition to replace him one of their own, which could end up being Sikorski as he himself recently hinted in response to speculation about his candidacy.

This insight adds a new dimension to him championing Polish national interests in the Volhynia Genocide dispute and proposing a military loan to Ukraine instead of continuing to give everything away for free like before. It seems that he’s courting conservative-nationalist support for his possible candidacy via these means while also flirting with the scenario of intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine (which is likely a ruse as was earlier written) in order to retain the support of his party’s liberal-globalist base.

What matters most is that the first two parts of his potential candidacy’s foreign policy platform have respectively worsened ties with Ukraine and its military situation. Remembering that these approaches are the result of Polish society’s changing perceptions towards Ukraine ahead of next year’s presidential election, it can therefore be said that public opinion there is leading to tangible changes in the regional political and military situations, thus showing the power that Poles wield when they come together.