美联储如预期降息25个基点，称通胀/劳工目标“大致平衡”

自美联储9月降息50个基点以来，经济数据显示强劲增长和通胀上升。这大大降低了对未来降息的预期，提振了黄金和股市，而原油价格却暴跌。然而，自降息以来，抵押贷款利率有所上升。市场预计今天将降息25个基点，但12月存在不确定性。联邦公开市场委员会的决定和鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到密切关注，以寻找任何进一步放松预期的迹象。此次降息决定没有出现异议，关键变化包括删除了有关通胀率接近 2% 的信心增强的措辞，并补充说劳动力市场状况普遍有所缓解。

Since the Federal Reserve's 50-basis point rate cut in September, economic data has shown strong growth and rising inflation. This has significantly reduced expectations for future rate cuts, boosting gold and stocks while crude oil prices have plummeted. However, mortgage rates have increased since the cut. The market expects a 25-basis point cut today, but there is uncertainty about December. The FOMC's decision and Powell's press conference will be closely watched for any indication of further easing of expectations. There was no dissent in this rate-cut decision, and the key changes included removing language about gained confidence in inflation moving toward 2% and adding that labor market conditions have generally eased.

Fed Cuts Rates By 25bps As Expected, Says Inflation/Labor Goals 'Roughly In Balance'

It's been an 'eventful' six weeks since The Fed decided (on Sept 18th) to slash interest rates by 50bps.

The macro-economic data has literally exploded stronger...

Source: Bloomberg

...with inflation reigniting and growth surprises soaring...

Source: Bloomberg

...and that has slammed rate-cut expectations down by over 100bps...

Source: Bloomberg

Which has helped lift gold and stocks while crude prices have collapsed (and Bitcoin has gone vertical)...

Source: Bloomberg

But, more problematically, the mortgage rate has ripped higher since The Fed cut...

Source: Bloomberg

The market is fully priced for 25bps cut today, but December is now a coin-toss (54% odds of another 25bps).

Will The FOMC (and Powell's presser) jawbone expectations down further? Will Bowman dissent again?

So what did The Fed do?

*FED LOWERS BENCHMARK RATE 25 BPS TO 4.5%-4.75% RANGE
*FED SAYS RISKS TO GOALS REMAIN 'ROUGHLY IN BALANCE'
*FED: LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE 'GENERALLY EASED'

No dissent on this rate-cut decision.

Key changes:

Most notably, removing language that Fed has "gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainable toward 2 percent".
Adding that labor market conditions have "generally eased" since earlier in the year, replacing "job gains have slowed".

Read the full redline below:

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/07/2024 - 14:00

美联储如预期降息25个基点，称通胀/劳工目标“大致平衡” Fed Cuts Rates By 25bps As Expected, Says Inflation/Labor Goals 'Roughly In Balance'

So what did The Fed do?