“鹰派”鲍威尔推高债券收益率，比特币、金条和大型科技公司竞价，降息可能性降低

在美联储发表鹰派声明和主席鲍威尔发表言论后，对12月降息的预期有所减弱。尽管经济稳健，但核心通胀仍然较高，导致美联储考虑放慢调整至中性的步伐。美联储仍然不为即将到来的选举所困扰，而是专注于其使命。在国债收益率的带动下，国债收益率大幅下跌，而纳斯达克指数跑赢其他股市。道指和小盘股面临抛售压力。 VIX继续下跌，触及关键支撑位。美元走软，金价因美元疲软而反弹。比特币和以太坊创下历史新高，其中以太坊的表现明显优于比特币。油价波动但收高。值得注意的是，市场似乎一直在利用短期美国主权信用违约掉期来对冲卡马拉·哈里斯赢得大选的可能性，导致自拜登大获全胜以来美国主权风险崩溃。

After the Fed's hawkish statement and Chairman Powell's comments, expectations for December rate cuts have diminished. Despite a solid economy, core inflation remains elevated, leading the Fed to consider slowing the pace of its recalibration toward neutral. The Fed remains unfazed by the upcoming election, focusing instead on its mandate. Treasury yields fell sharply, led by the belly, while the Nasdaq outperformed other equity markets. The Dow and Small Caps faced selling pressure. The VIX continued to decline, reaching a critical support level. The dollar weakened, and gold rebounded on dollar weakness. Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new record highs, with Ethereum significantly outperforming Bitcoin. Oil prices fluctuated but ended higher. Notably, the market appears to have been using short-dated USA sovereign CDS to hedge against the possibility of Kamala Harris winning the election, resulting in a collapse in USA sovereign risk since Biden's sweep.

Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Bid As 'Hawkish' Powell Pushes Bond Yields, Rate-Cut Odds Lower

A relatively hawkish Fed statement - removing language that it has "gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainable toward 2 percent" - was met with a 'meh' response by the market, but once Fed Chair Powell started speaking it was clear that the uber-dovish rate-cut trajectory that so many hoped for was a thing of the past... for now.

Rate-cut expectations for December stumbled notably...

Source: Bloomberg

During the press conference, The Fed chief notes that while overall inflation has moved closer to the central bank’s goal, core inflation is still “somewhat elevated.”

Powell says the latest inflation report “wasn’t terrible,” but price increases were a little higher than expected.

“We don’t guess, we don’t speculate and we don’t assume.”

Powell says economic activity “has continued to expand at a solid pace,” nodding to strong GDP data and “solid” labor market reports.

“We don’t think it’s a good time to be doing a lot of forward guidance.”

As the Fed gets closer to neutral, it may be appropriate to slow the pace of recalibration, he says.

“It’s something that we’re just beginning to think about.”

Powell says they are not in a hurry to “find neutral.”

Powell, when asked what his plan to deal with stagflation is:

"Our plan is not to have stagflation"

Solid plan, Jay!

Finally, Powell says in the near term, the election “will have no effect” on Fed decisions.

Finally, here's a more ominous take to all this sudden walking-back of The Fed's dovishness:

“If inflation is still elevated and the committee risks are roughly in balance, what is the point of continuing to cut?” asks Byron Anderson of Laffer Tengler Investments.

“The Fed gained control of the recession narrative with its supersized cut at the last meeting. If you believe the economy is on good footing, the risks to inflation are increasing with every rate cut they do.

Without a credit crisis emerging, which is not evident at the moment, the greater risk to markets is adding stimulus to an already inflationary leaning environment.

Many will disagree but this was the perfect point for the Fed to pause and reassess the landscape through the end of the year.”

So where did that leave us?

Treasury yields plunged on the day with the belly outperforming (7Y -13bps, 2Y -7bps, 30Y -7bps). That dragged all yields lower on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

It's been a wild few days in bond-land, between payrolls, the election, and now The Fed...

Source: Bloomberg

The US equity majors were mixed with Nasdaq (and S&P) soaring while The Dow and Small Caps were unable to break out to the upside (with late-day selling pressure pushing Small Caps significantly lower)...