Tl;dr: The inflation story is far from over... no matter what The Fed or The White House claims...
For the 53rd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in October with the YoY pace re-accelerating to +3.33%...
Source: Bloomberg
Services costs are starting to pick up again...
Source: Bloomberg
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in August and September.
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The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in October.
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The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent and the index for rent rose 0.3 percent over the month.
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The lodging away from home index rose 0.4 percent in October, after falling 1.9 percent in September.
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The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month after increasing 0.4 percent in September.
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The index for physicians’ services increased 0.5 percent in October and the prescription drugs index rose 0.2 percent over the month.
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The used cars and trucks index rose 2.7 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in the previous month.
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The index for airline fares rose 3.2 percent over the month and the index for recreation increased 0.4 percent.
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Other indexes that increased in October include personal care and education.
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The index for apparel fell 1.5 percent in October, following a 1.1-percent increase the preceding month.
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The communication index decreased 0.6 percent over the month, as it did in September.
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The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for motor vehicle insurance also declined in October.
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The new vehicles index was unchanged over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.
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The shelter index increased 4.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 65 percent of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.
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Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+14.0 percent), medical care (+3.3 percent), education (+3.8 percent), and personal care (+2.5 percent).
The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) which reaccelerated the YoY rise to +2.6% (as expected)...
Source: Bloomberg
Goods deflation ended on a MoM basis...
Source: Bloomberg
While Goods prices are still in deflation, they are re-acclerating and Services inflation remains extremely elevated...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, the much-watched (for a while) SuperCore (Services Ex-Shelter) CPI remains stubbornly high...
Source: Bloomberg
The deflationary pressures are easing...
Source: Bloomberg
On a short-term basis, it's energy's deflation that is doing God's work for Biden/Harris/Powell..
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, headline consumer prices are up 20.4% since Biden/Harris took over (that is almost three times the pace of price inflation that was seen under Trump's first term)...
Source: Bloomberg
Is a resurgence in CPI already baked in the cake (as global money supply has been resurgent)?
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, could we really replay the '70s once again?
Source: Bloomberg
Will that really be Powell's legacy? Or will the timing of this resurgence in inflation be perfectly timed to coincide with Trump's election victory... and offer a perfect patsy for who is to blame?