比特币突破 90,000 美元——下一步在哪里? Bitcoin Tops $90,000 - Where Next?

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-tops-90000-where-next

尽管出现短期调整,分析师预计比特币到年底仍将表现强劲。 Lennix Lai 预测价格为 100,000 美元以上,而 Tony Sycamore 建议为 90,000 美元。 乔什·吉尔伯特 (Josh Gilbert) 预计机构胃口将达到 10 万美元。 Ki Young Ju 警告可能会回调至 58,000 美元。 Pav Hundal 预计为 103,000 美元,Guy Armoni 预计为 100,000 美元左右,2025 年可能会更高。Mati Greenspan 预计将持续表现优异,而 Ben Simpson 预计为 100,000 美元。 独立分析师 Tom Wan 预测价格为 95,000 美元,理由是潜在的不利因素。 总体而言,分析师对比特币的长期前景持乐观态度,但对波动性和潜在的调整提出警告。

Despite short-term corrections, analysts anticipate strong Bitcoin performance by year's end. Lennix Lai predicts $100,000+, while Tony Sycamore suggests $90,000. Josh Gilbert expects $100,000 from institutional appetite. Ki Young Ju cautions of a potential correction to $58,000. Pav Hundal anticipates $103,000, and Guy Armoni expects around $100,000, with potential for higher in 2025. Mati Greenspan predicts sustained outperformance, while Ben Simpson forecasts $100,000. Independent analyst Tom Wan predicts $95,000, citing potential headwinds. Overall, analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, but warn of volatility and potential corrections.


Bitcoin Tops $90,000 - Where Next?

The third time was the charm as Bitcoin finally surpassed the $90,000 Maginot Line this morning...

Source: Bloomberg

...now up over 32% since before the election night results started to pile in favor of Trump...

Source: Bloomberg

BTC ETF flows have been incredible...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum is also rallying, back above $3300...

Source: Bloomberg

But it has given back its relative outperformance gains against bitcoin since the election...

Source: Bloomberg

Where next?

Source: Bloomberg

Here's nine analysts' expectations that were shared with Cointelegraph. 

Lennix Lai — OKX: Beyond $100,000

Lennix Lai, the global chief commercial officer of crypto exchange OKX, says he expects Bitcoin to reach a price of “beyond $100,000” by the last day of trading for 2024. 

We’re seeing signals of a potential paradigm shift into the next growth phase for crypto, which I think has the potential to push BTC beyond 100k before the end of the year,” said Lai. 

However, Lai warned that the market had already priced in several bullish catalysts — namely the election results and rising traditional equities markets — and much of Bitcoin’s recent spike upward could be traced back to short-term euphoria.

“It’s important to bear in mind that considerable macroeconomic uncertainty exists.”

“The post-election landscape may include drastic government spending cuts and tariff reforms that could be a shock to markets. I believe that these factors could exacerbate inflation — potentially slowing the anticipated pace of Fed rate cuts,” he added. 

He said these factors, combined with geopolitical risks, including the tensions in the Middle East and the US stance on active conflicts, may add further complexity to the market outlook and contribute to short-term volatility.

Tony Sycamore — IG Markets: Low-to-mid $90,000 region

IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph he expects Bitcoin to end the year somewhere in the “low to mid $90,000” region. He said a lot of the “good news” following Trump’s election had already been priced in as BTC staged a surprise rally to over $90,000 on Nov. 11.

“The other reason is that it’s probably getting close to that time when some of the altcoins should start to play some catch-up,” he added.

“Ethereum, for example, is trading 20% below its year-to-date high, so I suspect that switching out of Bitcoin and into alts is a theme we will see play out into year-end.”

Josh Gilbert — eToro: $100,000

Market analyst Josh Gilbert of eToro said Bitcoin’s recent run of record highs is far from over and predicted that BTC will notch a new six-figure all-time high of $100,00 by year’s end. 

In line with several other analysts, Gilbert cited Trump’s presidential victory, cooling interest rates, a robust US economy and a growing institutional appetite that saw record daily inflows into Bitcoin ETFs last week as key catalysts for future growth. “This run is yet to exhibit the ‘euphoria’ levels from retail that we’ve seen in previous cycles,” said Gilbert. 

Despite the overarching bullish sentiment, Gilbert warned that there’s a strong chance BTC “takes a breather” in the next few weeks but conceded that overall, the trend was too strong to be ignored. 

“This asset’s run over the last two weeks has been like a freight train — it’s going to take something big to slow it down.”

Ki Young Ju — CryptoQuant: $58,000

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju offered a more bearish outlook on price action for Bitcoin in the next few months. 

In a Nov. 9 post to X, Ki said he expects Bitcoin to close the year at $58,974, citing overheated derivatives activity as the reason for an imminent correction.

Source: Ki Young Ji

“I expected corrections as BTC futures market indicators overheated, but we’re entering price discovery, and the market is heating up even more,” Ki said.

“If correction and consolidation occur, the bull run may extend; however, a strong year-end rally could set up 2025 for a bear market.”

Bitcoin is currently showing a record $55 billion in open interest, a measure of how many active positions are open on Bitcoin derivatives like futures and options, per CoinGlass data

Open interest on Bitcoin is sitting at record levels. Source: CoinGlass

Pav Hundal — SwyftX: $103,000

SwyftX lead market analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that while it’s difficult to place an exact target for the end of the year, he expects BTC to close out 2024 trading just above $100,000.

“If you apply a common Fibonacci extension to the last cycle’s high and low points, it points to $103,000 by the end of the year,” he said

Guy Armoni — HDI Fund: Around $100,000

Guy Armoni, managing partner at HDI Fund, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin has yet to reach its peak value for the cycle and expects Bitcoin to be trading higher, given a continuation of the current trend. 

Armoni looked to the growing adoption of crypto worldwide and a more friendly policy environment for crypto assets and companies in the United States as the key price drivers for Bitcoin heading into the remainder of the year and onward into 2025. ‘If this trend continues, not only will we see Bitcoin at $100,000 this year, but I anticipate the bull market will extend into 2025, with Bitcoin potentially surprising us by reaching as high as $250,000,” Armoni said. 

Matti Greenspan — Quantum Economics: Higher

Mati Greenspan, the founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, said Bitcoin had been “shrugging off” extremely bullish fundamentals and consolidating — rather than climbing — for most of this year, predicting continued outperformance for the asset heading into the end of 2024. 

Source: Mati Greenspan

Arguing against the commonly held sentiment that this bull run could be over in a matter of months, Greenspan said he expects crypto’s upward trajectory to last a “long time.”

“Stock bull runs have been known to build over the course of a decade or more. People out there are acting like this will all be over in a month and they need to eat as much as they can while the food’s on the table or they’ll be left with scraps,” he said. 

Ben Simpson — Collective Shift: $100,000 

Collective Shift CEO Ben Simpson told Cointelegraph that while short-term pullbacks and corrections are likely, he predicts Bitcoin to finish this year trading at the $100,000 mark. 

“With the Trump election, interest rates coming down, the potential for quantitative easing starting up in the future, and getting relatively consistent days of a billion dollars Bitcoin ETF volume, more people are catching on,” he said. 

“When you’ve got a limited supply asset like Bitcoin and the amount of demand that’s coming in, the space is only going one way.”

Tom Wan — Independent analyst: $80,000-$95,000

I believe Bitcoin would cross the $95,000-100,000 mark before the end of 2024. However, it is important to note that $100k is a key psychological zone, and we could see a significant selling wall near that range,” independent analyst Tom Wan told Cointelegraph. 

Wan said investors are currently pricing in the expected pro-crypto regulations of a Trump administration and spiking inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs but cited record open interest on Bitcoin as a potential headwind for the short term. 

Much like many other crypto industry pundits, Wan shares a highly optimistic outlook for prices in the longer term. 

“With the anticipation of crypto-friendly regulation, I believe we should see more institutional investors like pensions, RIAs, state governments and public companies start allocating to crypto, which could fuel BTC to rise above important price levels,” Wan added.

Finally, does this seem under-priced?

Overall, the consensus among analysts is that Bitcoin will end the year trading at above or around the $100,000 mark. And despite the overarching bullish sentiment, most analysts warned of outsized volatility and major corrections for Bitcoin in the coming months.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 09:52
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