在冷滴入侵之前天然气价格接近突破水平 NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natgas-prices-near-breakout-level-ahead-cold-blob-invasion

由于预测下周寒冷天气将从西海岸转移到东部,美国天然气期货上涨 2.5%。 这表明家庭恒温器的使用有所增加。 这一转变归因于美国东部的“大规模寒冷趋势”预测,可能导致东北部地区出现寒冷天气。 气象学家预测,随着冷空气的形成,感恩节期间可能会下雪。 存储数据显示上周增加了 39 bcf,当前库存比五年平均水平高出 5.8%。 48 州以下地区的干气产量和天然气总需求量同比下降。 预计的冷风可能会使天然气期货价格突破 3 美元,这是近两年来一直保持的阻力位。 《农民年鉴》还预测,多个地区将迎来潮湿多雨的冬季。

US natural gas futures rose 2.5% due to forecasts predicting a shift in cold weather from the West Coast to the East next week. This suggests increased household thermostat usage. The shift is attributed to a "massive cold trend" forecast for the eastern US, potentially leading to wintry conditions in the Northeast. Meteorologists predict snow potential during Thanksgiving week as cold air becomes established. Storage data indicates an increase of 39 bcf last week, with current stockpiles 5.8% above the five-year average. Lower-48 dry gas production and total gas demand have decreased year-over-year. The forecasted cold blast could push NatGas futures past $3, a resistance level held for nearly two years. The Farmers' Almanac also predicts a wet and stormy winter in various regions.


NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion

US natural gas futures are up 2.5% in late afternoon trading, reaching $2.98 per mmBtu, driven by new forecasts showing a shift in cold weather from the West Coast to the East next week. This suggests households may crank up their thermostats for the first time this season as a proper chill sets in. 

Private weather forecaster BAMWX published a new mid-day GEFS run for late November that shows "massive cold trends" for the eastern half of the US. 

"The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead," BAMWX wrote on X, adding, "Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential." 

Meteorologist Ryan Kane wrote on X, "It's safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS."

"Snow potential should come Thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established," Kane noted. 

BAMWX said the pattern shift to much cooler temps in the interior Northeast could produce ripe conditions for snow next week. 

Here's what other meteorologists are saying...

Back to NatGas fundamentals, here's the latest data (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Weather:

  • Forecasts shifted cooler for parts of the West Coast with colder temperatures moving eastward later in the Nov. 18-22 period: Maxar

  • See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA * Click here for two-week temperature forecasts for the US

Storage:

  • Gas inventories probably rose 39 bcf last week, based on median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg

  • Five-year average gas inventory change for week ended Nov. 8 is +29 bcf

  • Stockpiles totaled 3.932 tcf as of Nov. 1, 5.8% above the five-year average

  • EIA to report weekly storage data at 10:30am New York time on Thursday

Daily BNEF Gas Data:

  • Lower-48 dry gas production on Wednesday ~100.4 bcf/day, or -5.2% y/y

  • Lower-48 total gas demand ~81.7 bcf/day, or -3.1% y/y

  • Dry gas exports to Mexico ~6.5 bcf/day, or -2% w/w

  • Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals ~13.7 bcf/day, or +1.5% w/w

Maybe a cold blast in the Northeast and other parts of the US will be the catalyst to push NatGas futures past the $3 mark, which has served as strong resistance for nearly two years.

In mid-August, the 208th edition of the Farmers' Almanac published the "Wet Winter Whirlwind." It noted, "There will be a lot of precipitation and storms"—all dependent on location." 

And this: NatGas Bulls Rejoice: Colder Winter Lower 48 Forecasts May "Place Upward Pressure" On Prices

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/13/2024 - 17:20
相关文章
联系我们 contact @ memedata.com