首次申请失业救济人数降至 6 个月以来的最低水平 Initial Jobless Claims Drop To The Lowest In 6 Months

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/initial-jobless-claims-drop-lowest-6-months

同时公布的经济指标显示通胀上升和劳动力市场紧缩。 生产者价格指数(PPI)超出预期,表明物价压力持续存在。 劳工部报告称,首次申请失业救济人数下降至 21.7 万人,为 5 月份以来的最低水平,低于普遍预期。 虽然飓风暂时影响了索赔,但在受影响的州,影响已经平息。 持续索赔也有所减少,但仍然较高。 值得注意的是,企业财报电话会议中提及裁员的次数并未大幅增加。 这些数据挑战了美联储的鸽派立场,表明通胀仍然高企,劳动力市场正在走强,可能促使美联储考虑结束宽松周期。

Economic indicators released simultaneously pointed to rising inflation and a tightening labor market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, indicating continued price pressures. The Department of Labor reported a drop in initial jobless claims to 217k, the lowest since May and below consensus estimates. While hurricanes had temporarily impacted claims, they have since subsided in affected states. Continuing claims also decreased, but remain elevated. Notably, mentions of job cuts in corporate earnings calls have not increased significantly. These data challenge the Fed's dovish stance, suggesting that inflation remains elevated and that the labor market is strengthening, potentially prompting the Fed to consider ending its easing cycle.


Initial Jobless Claims Drop To The Lowest In 6 Months

At the exact same time that the latest PPI print came in well hotter than expected, Biden's outgoing Dept of Labor came out revealed even more hawkish data, reporting that as the impacts of the hurricanes has largely worn off, initial jobless claims dropped last week to 217k (from 221k) - below the 220K consensus estimate - and the lowest since May.

For the second week in a row, the biggest increase in claims was in California which was not only the outlier state this month, but its claims were estimated by the DOL. On the other end, the number of initial claims dropped the most in Florida and Georgia.

In fact, both North Carolina (Helene) and Florida (Milton) have seen claims revert to pre-Hurricane norms...

Continuing claims also fell from a downward revised 1884K (vs 1892K pre revision) to 1873K, but still holding near the highest since Dec 2022.

What is also notable is that as BBG's Michael McDonough notes, "job cut" discussions are not meaningfully increasing in S&P earnings calls:

So PPI hot, and jobless claims at a fresh six month low - not the kind of data that The Fed doves want to see to justify another rate-cut... although now that Trump is in the White House, we are confident the Fed will have far fewer scruples about calling it a "Fed Accompli" (sic) and ending its easing cycle after 2 rate cuts.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/14/2024 - 09:16
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