原油库存创三个月来最高水平后 WTI 下跌

尽管美元走强，但由于 API 报告的美国原油库存意外减少，油价仍在上涨。然而，IEA 警告称，如果 OPEC+ 增产，2023 年可能出现供应过剩，供应量将超过需求量超过 100 万桶/日。能源信息署（EIA）还预测明年供应将超过需求。美国能源部官方数据显示，美国原油库存增加，但产品库存下降。拜登政府还为战略石油储备增加了石油储备。尽管创下历史新高，美国原油产量仍有所下降。未来几周将决定石油市场的近期前景，对需求增长和强势美元影响价格的担忧。

Oil prices are rising despite a strong dollar due to an unexpected draw in US crude inventories reported by the API. However, the IEA warns of a potential surplus in 2023, with supply exceeding demand by over 1 million barrels per day if OPEC+ increases production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) also predicts supply will outpace demand next year. Official DOE data shows a rise in US crude stocks but a decline in product inventories. Biden's administration also added barrels to the SPR. Despite record highs, US crude production has dipped. The coming weeks will determine the oil market's near-term outlook, with concerns about demand growth and the strong dollar influencing prices.

WTI Dips After Crude Inventories Build To Highest In 3 Months

Oil price are trading higher this morning after treading water for two days (lower than pre-election) following API's report of a (unexpected) small crude inventory draw and despite a strong dollar.

However, the IEA on Thursday warned that the oil market faces a surplus of more than 1 million barrels a day next year, which could swell further if OPEC+ decides to press ahead with supply hikes.

"World oil supply is rising at a healthy clip. Following the early November US elections, we continue to expect the United States to lead non-OPEC+ supply growth of 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, along with higher output from Canada, Guyana and Argentina," the report noted.

" ... Total growth from the five American producers will more than cover expected demand growth in 2024 and 2025 ... Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 mb/d next year."

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday the Energy Information Administration also predicted supply will exceed demand beginning in the second quarter of next year.

API

Crude -800k
Cushing -1.9mm
Gasoline +300k
Distillates +1.1mm

DOE

Crude +2.09mm
Cushing -688k
Gasoline -4.41mm
Distillates -1.39mm

US Crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week according to the official DOE data (as opposed to the small draw reported by API). Product inventories tumbled though (as did stocks at the Cushing hub)...

Source: Bloomberg

Total US crude stocks are back at their highest since early August...

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden admin added 567k barrels to the SPR last week...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production dipped from record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $69 ahead of the official print.

“The coming weeks will be critical in shaping the near-term outlook for the oil market,” said Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB AB. “The continued strength of the US dollar is exerting downward pressure on commodities overall, while ongoing concerns about demand growth are weighing on the outlook for crude.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/14/2024 - 11:08

原油库存创三个月来最高水平后 WTI 下跌 WTI Dips After Crude Inventories Build To Highest In 3 Months