This week the Ukrainian government has warned its allies that the army faces nearly 50,000 Russian troops now deployed to Kursk province.
Ukrainian forces have held hundreds of square kilometers of territory inside Russia since a surprise blitz move across the border in early August. Rather than Moscow choosing to relocate sizeable forces from Donbass to defend Kursk, which Kiev was hoping for as a strategic way to weaken Russian front lines in the east, the Kremlin has been patient.
It appears a final big push to force out the Ukrainians is underway. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed this in Monday statements. He said that Ukrainian troops "continue to hold back" the "nearly 50,000-strong enemy group" in Kursk.
But with those numbers on the Russian side, and given the battle space is inside Russian territory, it is only a matter of time before Kiev's Kursk adventure comes to a halt.
"They stormed with a battalion-sized force," an officer of a Ukrainian mechanized unit told CNN, adding that "the Russian invaders were eliminated."
There also remains deep concern that Russia is sending North Korean troops to help gain back control of occupied Kursk. CNN writes of some of the latest:
And while Russia has reclaimed some settlements, the line of control has barely changed over the past months.
A US official told CNN on Sunday that Russia has amassed a large force of tens of thousands — including recently arrived North Korean troops — to carry out an assault on the Ukrainian positions in Kursk. The official said the offensive was expected in the coming days.
Zelensky has claimed that some 11,000 North Korean troops are in the region. They are said to be in Belgorod as well, which has also been subject of frequent Ukrainian cross-border attacks.
The CNN report continues, "Separately, a Ukrainian commander told CNN Sunday that North Korean troops were taking part in direct combat operations in Kursk, as well as defensive operations in the neighboring Belgorod region of Russia and in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories."
Starting last week, Zelensky said there have been direct and deadly clashes between Ukrainian and North Korean forces. Russia has not completely denied it, saying that a defense treaty inked between Moscow and Pyongyang allows for allied forces to help defend Russian territory.
Better photo of North Korean M-1978/1989 Koksan 170mm self-propelled howitzers being transported by rail, presumably somewhere on the territory of Russia. pic.twitter.com/ngn1ezuMQO
— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) November 14, 2024
Given the incoming Trump administration and its vow to immediately achieve ceasefire, pressure will grow on Kiev to quickly enter negotiations with Russia. Any future deal would have to involve Ukrainian forces exiting Kursk, assuming they are not defeated there first, or else the Kremlin will not sign off on it.