美国 10 月份零售销售“对照组”意外暴跌，头条新闻

尽管美国银行预计零售额将因季节性调整而下降，但实际结果超出预期，总体销售额增长 0.4%。然而，核心销售额（不包括汽车和天然气）仅增长 0.1%，低于预期。用于 GDP 计算的对照组下降了 0.1%。总体增长是由汽车和食品销售推动的，但核心销售增长同比放缓。未经季节性调整后，零售额增长 6.8%。对照组数据波动较大，9 月份数据大幅上调，但名义销售额在三个月内连续第二个月下降。这个混合数据集为经济分析师提供了相互矛盾的信号。

While BofA predicted a decline in retail sales due to seasonal adjustments, actual results exceeded expectations, with a 0.4% increase in headline sales. However, core sales (excluding autos and gas) only grew 0.1%, falling short of forecasts. The Control Group, used for GDP calculations, saw a 0.1% decline. The headline beat was driven by car and food sales, but core sales growth slowed year-over-year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales surged 6.8%. The Control Group data has been volatile, with a significant upward revision for September, but also a second monthly decline in nominal sales in three months. This mixed data set offers conflicting signals for economic analysts.

US Retail Sales 'Control Group' Unexpectedly Tumbled In October, Headline Beat

If the omniscient chaps at BofA are right, the soft landing narrative is about to crash as they forecast a well below consensus tumble in retail sales this morning...

Source: BofA

...but notably this is mainly due to seasonals, apparently.

Once again, seasonal adjustments are likely to impact the October retail sales report. The Census Bureau's projected seasonal factor (SF) for October 2024 is considerably less favorable than the October 2023 SF. Meanwhile, the October SF in the BAC card data is little changed from last year.

Source: BofA

So, given all that, what happened!?

Well, a lot!

The headline retail sales print beat expectations rising 0.4% (+0.3% exp).
Core retail sales (ex-autos and gas) disappointed, rising just 0.1% (+0.3% exp).
But the Control Group - which is used for GDP calculations - tumbled 0.1% MoM (+0.3% exp).

BUT - the disappointments are likely driven by major upward revisions to the prior month

Headline September revised up from +0.4% MoM to +0.8% MoM.
Core revised up from +0.7% to +1.2% MoM.
Control Group revised up from +0.7% MoM to +1.2% MoM.

Source: Bloomberg

The driver of the headline beat was all cars and food...

Core retail sales growth slowed on a YoY basis...

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales jumped 6.8% MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

The Control Group data is 'noisy' - September was revised up to its strongest MoM jump since Jan 2023 (but this was the second monthly decline in nominal retail sales in three months)...

Source: Bloomberg

A real Goldilocks of a data set there - hot headline, cool core, ugly control group - take your pick, dove or hawk!

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/15/2024 - 08:39

美国 10 月份零售销售“对照组”意外暴跌，头条新闻 US Retail Sales 'Control Group' Unexpectedly Tumbled In October, Headline Beat

So, given all that, what happened!?