Tonight at 8 PM Eastern, expert oil and gas analysts will debate the future of the energy sector in a live, premium-only event only on ZeroHedge. Join us for a deep dive, featuring two highly respected strategists with contrasting views: Paul Sankey, the bear, and Josh Young, the bull.
The Bear:
Paul Sankey is a renowned oil analyst with over three decades of experience, known for his independent and bold market calls. Sankey founded Sankey Research in 2020. His current outlet, oil price to decline for the following reasons:
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Global Supply Stabilization: While oil prices are currently high, there is limited price elasticity of supply, meaning higher prices have not led to increased production, especially from major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and OPEC+.
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Venezuela Production Resumption: The Biden administration has granted Chevron a license to resume oil production in Venezuela, which could add 200,000 barrels per day back into the market, easing supply concerns.
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OPEC+: Political instability in countries like Iran and Venezuela, along with the ongoing protests in China, could have mixed effects on the oil market. However, OPEC+ may respond by adjusting their production strategies, potentially leading to a price correction.
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Strong U.S. Market Fundamentals: Despite bearish sentiment, the U.S. has emerged strong from mid-term elections, with global energy crises providing a backdrop for continued demand, although high oil prices may still encourage supply adjustments.
The Bull:
Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer at Bison Interests, brings nearly two decades of expertise in oil and gas investing. Even with a Trump “drill baby drill” win, he remains as a strong advocate for the bullish potential of the oil and gas industry, particularly within the E&P space.
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Demand Outpaces Supply in 2024: Global oil demand has exceeded supply by 0.58 mbd (million barrels per day), leading to unexpected inventory draws and lower U.S. oil stock levels, which are at a 20-year low.
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Slowing Non-OPEC Production Growth: Growth in non-OPEC production is slowing, with key sources like the Permian Basin and Guyana contributing less in 2025 compared to previous years, leaving a production shortfall.
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Rising Demand in Developing Economies: Stronger-than-expected demand growth, particularly from India and China, is putting additional strain on global oil supply. China's record oil imports are a key factor.
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Market Tightness and Price Volatility: With continued demand growth and production struggles, oil supply shortages could persist, leading to significant price volatility, similar to the 2020-2022 price surge.
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Potential Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, like potential disruptions in the Middle East, could further tighten oil supplies and push prices higher.
The “Macro Tourist” Kevin Muir — a former RBC trading desk strategist and author of a great macro newsletter — will moderate the debate with his broad market knowledge and over three decades of trading experience.
Key Questions to Answer:
- Will the Trump Administration be bullish for oil and gas?
- How will conflict in the Middle East impact prices?
- Is the Green New Deal movement dying?
Tune in to the live debate exclusively on ZeroHedge’s front page, available only to premium and professional subscribers. If you have not already done so, subscribe here to get unique insights on how you should be trading energy into 2025. Any strategist can talk their book. See how they perform under scrutiny only on ZeroHedge.