Over the weekend of fast-moving, politically cataclysmic events in Syria which saw Bashar al-Assad flee the country and the US-designated terror organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham take over Damascus and the whole country, the future fate of Russia's military bases on the coast was an open question.
Some unverified videos purported to show the Russians move large military hardware inside Syria, but it was anything but clear whether the two key bases of Khmeimim and Tartus would keep Russian troops and assets stationed there.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has addressed the speculation and rumors. For now it appears the Russian military still oversees these bases, and they are not currently under direct threat. Peskov said their future presence will depend on the new leaders of Syria.
"Currently, we are witnessing a period of transformation and extreme instability," Peskov told a press briefing Monday. He described events in Syria as a surprise to Russia and to the world. "It will take time before we can engage in serious conversations with those who hold power," he added.
Russian troops have been in Syria going back decades, into Soviet times, and Tartus has been home to the Russian navy's only Mediterranean port. In 2017, an agreement was inked between Moscow and Damascus for Russian troops to stay at the two bases for about another half-century. Those plans are obviously now up in the air.
Russian media is reporting that the armed groups now in charge of Syria have assured the safety of the Russian bases and personnel:
According to reports, the Syrian armed opposition has approached the two key Russian military bases. A local source told TASS news agency that they are not currently under threat. "Opposition forces have neither invaded nor do they plan to encroach upon the territory of Russian military installations, which are operating normally," the source said.
The militant groups that overthrew former President Bashar Assad’s government in Syria have assured the safety of Russia’s military installations and diplomatic missions within the country, a source from the Kremlin told TASS on Sunday.
Whether this pledge of safety is authentic or actually enforceable is another question. The Russian military is without doubt on high alert in Syria. It now has no local state institution with which it can partner or coordinate. Over years of the prior conflict, the base was attacked by small drones on several occasions, triggering anti-air defensive measures.
The Kremlin has also on Monday confirmed Russian President Vladimir Putin personally approved Bashar Assad’s asylum and that of his family.
Peskov said however that no meetings between the two are scheduled or expected. "There is nothing to say regarding Assad’s whereabouts," he said. "Such decisions cannot be made without the head of state; it is his decision," the spokesman described in reference to Putin.
Many Syrians who for many years of grinding war were fiercely loyal to Assad and his government are currently angry that he fled the capital, and that his forces folded so fast. Some feel that all the sacrifices made as the country endured Western and Gulf sponsored proxy war since 2011 have become futile or in vain.