After thirteen separate large scale missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year alone, the country is facing a 50% to 70% grid down scenario just as temperatures are about to drop well below freezing. Rolling blackouts are expected for many months to come, with some energy experts saying that the grid could be down for up to 20 hours per day in many areas.
Power outages are specifically detrimental to industrial production, heating for homes and clean running water. After three years of Russian strikes Ukraine has become increasingly reliant on energy resources from outside the country. Slovakia is one of the nations providing that humanitarian aid. In January to November this year, Slovkia exported 2.4 million megwatthours of electricity, a 152% year-on-year increase. They also provide around 5% of Ukraine's total diesel supply, which is vital for military vehicles and generators.
The deal is reciprocal, with Kyiv refraining from interference with Russian gas flows from pipelines running through Ukraine over to Slovakia. To get gas from other sources would increase Slovakia's energy costs greatly.
Though Slovakia has remained neutral on the war, Ukraine and the European Union have recently accused them of becoming "too cozy" with Vladimir Putin. Zelensky plans to shut down Russian gas pipelines to Slovakia on January 1st. Kyiv has refused to renew a transit deal with Moscow expiring at the end of the year while they remain at war.
Prime Minister Robert Fico, who survived a failed assassination attempt this May, says that he is being demonized by NATO. As the war progresses and Ukraine loses more and more ground to Russia, neutrality is being treated as treason by Kyiv and their western partners. The pressure tactics have, in fact, had the opposite intended effect.
Fico has made a surprise visit to the Kremlin to meet with Putin to ensure his country's energy security. And, after Christmas, Slovakia announced its intentions to cut all backup energy supplies to Ukraine, including electricity and diesel resources.
Ukrainian officials have asserted in the past that losing supplies from countries like Slovakia and Hungary would not have an effect on their overall readiness. However, Russian missile attacks have damaged Ukraine's infrastructure to the point of no return and they clearly need every watt of power they can get. Such a shutdown may also inspire other nations with neutral tied with Ukraine and Russia to shift closer to the Kremlin.
After Fico's trip to Russia, Putin has said that he was open to accepting Slovakia's latest offer as a place for peace negotiations with Ukraine. Fico's visit to Moscow is being treated with hostility as it is widely seen as a blow to the EU bloc's unity against Russia's invasion.
''He first and foremost spoke about a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. He was pushing it. I don’t know what claims could be made against him by Europe or anyone else. But he spoke about this and focused his attention on this," the Russian leader said at a briefing in St. Petersburg on Thursday.