“租房国家”卷土重来：特朗普的胜利引发多户住宅数量激增 12 月开工

在多户单元激增的推动下，12 月份新屋开工量大幅增长 15.8%，创下 2021 年 3 月以来的最高月度增幅。然而，更具前瞻性的指标建筑许可证却下降了 0.7%。尽管开工量强劲增长，但销售预期却在下降，引发了人们对这种建设速度可持续性的担忧。尽管月度增长，但 2024 年的房屋建设速度是 2019 年以来最慢的，抵押贷款利率仍保持在 7% 以上。房屋建筑商可能押注于通胀上升和经济增长，以保持大多数美国人的购房负担能力较低。然而，许可证的减少以及在建和竣工房屋的下降趋势表明建筑商正在应对不温不火的需求。

Housing Starts saw a significant 15.8% jump in December, driven by a surge in multi-family units, marking the highest monthly increase since March 2021. However, Building Permits, a more forward-looking indicator, declined by 0.7%. Despite the robust growth in starts, sales expectations are falling, raising concerns about the sustainability of this pace of construction. Despite the monthly increase, home construction in 2024 was the slowest since 2019, with mortgage rates remaining above 7%. Homebuilders may be betting on rising inflation and growth to keep home-buying affordability low for most Americans. However, the decline in permits and the downward trend in homes under construction and completions suggest that builders are responding to tepid demand.

'Renter Nation' Returns: Trump Victory Sparks Massive Surge In Multi-Family Unit Starts In December

From a downwardly revised 3.7% MoM drop in November, Housing Starts exploded 15.8% higher MoM in December while Building Permits (more forward looking) fell 0.7% MoM (a smaller decline than expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM jump in Starts since March 2021, dragging the total Starts SAAR to its highest since Feb 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

The dramatic surge in starts was driven by a ridiculous 58.9% MoM jump in multi-family units (while multi-family permits fell 5.8%).

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest MoM jump in multi-family starts since 2016, and the highest SAAR for 'renter nation' since Dec 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

The question is - with sales expectatins falling, will homebuilders keep building at this pace...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the robust monthly advance, new home construction for all of 2024 was the slowest since 2019.

With mortgage rates now back above 7.00%, perhaps the homebuilders are betting on a return of inflation and growth meaning home-buying affordability will remain out of reach for most Americans.

However, we do note that the more forward-looking 'permits' headline data actually declined MoM.

Furthermore, as builders respond to more tepid demand, the number of homes under construction has been trending down in the past year and eased to the lowest since August 2021.

Completions also slowed further, hitting the slowest pace since March.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/17/2025 - 08:50

“租房国家”卷土重来：特朗普的胜利引发多户住宅数量激增 12 月开工 'Renter Nation' Returns: Trump Victory Sparks Massive Surge In Multi-Family Unit Starts In December