Tomorrow, February 1, the Trump administration will slap 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China, as announced during Friday's press briefing by White House spox Karoline Leavitt, who denied reports of a delay to March 1.

There will be no delay, selective targeting, or slow roll-out of phased-in tariffs as speculated by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.

That said, there could be certain exemptions - such as for oil and gas, which Leavitt did not elaborate on. For now, all we have to go on is Trump's most recent comments on oil:

"It depends on what the price is. If the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly — which they don’t," he said Thursday while speaking with reporters.

The United States imported nearly 4.6 million barrels of oil per day from Canada in October, and 563,000 barrels from Mexico. Daily US production over the same period averaged nearly 13.5 million barrels per day.

So in this scenario - full tariffs with zero quarter given, "we would expect to see USDCAD move decidedly higher come Monday, challenging the 1.50 level and representing a more than 3% move higher in the cross relative to current spot. To be clear, Canada could retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs in absolute terms since its trade relationship with the US is balanced, however, USDCAD will still be higher given that the US economy is more than 10x the size of its Canadian counterpart," according to DB.

On Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that any tariffs would stoke an 'immediate' and 'forceful' response.

"We're ready with a response - a purposeful, forceful but reasonable, immediate response. It's not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act," said Trudeau, adding that all options were on the table.

Canada sends 75% of its goods and services exports to the US, meaning that the tariffs will sting.

"I won't sugarcoat it - our nation could be facing difficult times in the coming days and weeks," Trudeau continued. "I know Canadians might be anxious and worried, but I want them to know the federal government, and indeed, all orders of government, have their backs."

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has already vowed to slap back by pulling American alcohol off of store shelves (and into his pantry?) - as Canada is the world's second largest market for America's distilled spirits, behind the 27-nation EU.