Now that Trump and Putin have agreed to organize a summit in hopes of fast-tracking Ukraine peace, each side is trying to build up leverage going in, and that's resulting in a return to some provocative and jingoistic threats.
Vice President JD Vance while at the Munich Security Conference warned that Washington could hit Russia with more sanctions and even use "military tools" on the table if it refuses to agree to a deal allowing Ukraine's long-term independence. He issued the words to The Wall Street Journal, saying "There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage."
"There are any number of formulations, of configurations, but we do care about Ukraine having sovereign independence," the vice president continued.
This was the most hawkish warning yet issued by the Trump administration in the context of pressing for a final Ukraine negotiated settlement with Moscow. He further assured European allies that Trump will not go into talks with Putin with "blinders on" and that "He’s going to say, ‘Everything is on the table, let’s make a deal."
Vance also said: "I think there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people."
And at the conference itself...
Vance is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later Friday for talks that many observers, particularly in Europe, hope will shed at least some light on Trump’s ideas for a negotiated settlement to the war.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the conference that everyone “wants this war to end.” But “how this war ends,” he said, “will have a lasting influence on our security order and on the position of power of Europe and America in the world.”
Kiev, as well as some in Washington, have been worried that the administration squandered its biggest leverage in Defense Secretary Hegseth's declaration earlier this week that there will be no future NATO membership for Ukraine.
"Ukraine must negotiate from a position of strength, with strong and reliable security guarantees, and that NATO membership would be the most cost-effective for partners," Zelenskyy said on X.
And then uber-hawks like Bolton sounded off, reflecting the old Republican neocon mentality which Trump has been warring against...
Last year, NATO officials, including the Secretary-General himself - not infrequently talked up an "irreversible path" to eventual membership in the alliance, but those hopes were dashed with Hegseth's speech before NATO HQ in Brussels.
"The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement," Hegseth had said, adding that security guarantees for Ukraine "must be backed by capable European and non-European troops."
"To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine," he said. His newest Friday remarks of a military option on the table if Putin refuses to make a deal somewhat contradicts this prior assurance.
The Europeans continue to express anger over Trump essentially going over Zelensky's head and showing willingness to deal directly with Putin. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Friday blasted the potential for peace talks that would cut out Zelensky or the Europeans.
"A sham peace — over the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans — would gain nothing," Baerbock said at the start of the security conference. “A sham peace would not bring lasting security, neither for the people in Ukraine nor for us in Europe or the United States,” she added, according to Reuters.
Zelensky remains skeptical and resistant...
Moscow is meanwhile cautioning that it could take months for talks to get off the ground, walking back some of its initial obvious enthusiasm - again in an attempt to maintain its leverage. State media was positively giddy when Trump spoke to Putin in a 90-minute call this week, and Hegseth denied NATO membership for Ukraine. Neither side wants to look too 'eager' at this early phase. It could indeed become a long-haul before a peace deal is hopefully reached.