Authored by Steve Carmel via RealClearDefense,
Every day, we are reminded of the challenges the U.S. faces in maintaining global leadership in critical industries and technologies. The recent DeepSeek revelation, which shocked the tech world, exposed how aggressively China is advancing in the artificial intelligence sector.
With DeepSeek reportedly matching U.S. AI capabilities in effectiveness but costing less, it’s clear that China isn’t holding back in its bid for global dominance.
DeepSeek’s ramifications are unsettling, but it doesn’t necessarily pose the greatest risk to U.S. national security. A far more pressing threat to our strategic interests lies in China’s rapid and unchecked progress in securing primacy over the world’s oceans.
In a report issued last month, the outgoing U.S. Trade Representative warned that China is aggressively targeting the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries: “we build less than 5 ships each year, while the PRC is building more than 1,700[.]” If America is to regain its edge in these critical sectors, swift and bold action will be necessary.”
Unfortunately, the U.S. shipbuilding industry has atrophied under years of neglect. As a result, China vastly outpaces the U.S. in the production of commercial vessels. This threat to our nation doesn’t stop at ship production. The logistics infrastructure that supports both civilian and military transport is just as critical—and it is here where the new Administration must act.
Logistics is the backbone of military power projection; knowing the U.S. lacks the capability to sustain a long-term conflict, adversaries—including China—may feel emboldened to attack U.S. allies, drawing the U.S. into a conflict thousands of miles away. This scenario undercuts a key assumption of our defense strategy: that prolonged conflicts favor American forces. If a long war does not play to our strengths, the risk calculus—including our entire deterrence posture—must be reevaluated.
Recent estimates suggest that China now boasts more than 5,000 commercial ships available for military sealift, while the United States has less than 200. This gap is mind-blowing. We cannot win a war with an anemic logistics capability. [OR “a logistics capability that is on life-support.”]
In a major conflict, nearly everything moves by sea—troops, supplies, weapons, fuel, and tanks. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, "Within China’s centrally directed economy, the government controls commercial shippers, foreign port facilities, and a global cargo-data network that could be repurposed for military purposes or to undermine the U.S., including on home soil."
Like China, the U.S. military’s sealift capacity relies heavily on commercial vessels. Another often overlooked logistics dynamic is that the personnel who carry out military sealifts are primarily civilian merchant marine officers. This reliance on civilian mariners underscores the importance of maintaining a strong and capable commercial maritime industry.
Key members of the Trump administration recognize these challenges and are well-positioned to reverse the tide, with Mike Waltz, a former Navy SEAL and expert in military logistics, serving as President Trump’s national security advisor. Before joining the administration, Mr. Waltz was an original cosponsor of the SHIPS for America Act, a comprehensive bipartisan bill designed to address the U.S.'s maritime vulnerabilities.
From my perspective in the commercial shipping industry and as a former member of the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy’s (USMMA) Congressional Board of Visitors, these grave issues will be taken seriously and addressed post haste. To strengthen our sealift capability, the U.S. must prioritize:
- Investment in shipbuilding: Boosting the U.S. commercial and military shipbuilding industries are essential to reversing the growing gap with China.
- Expansion of mariner training: We need to invest in a robust pipeline of qualified merchant mariners to ensure the U.S. can mobilize efficiently in times of crisis, especially those service obligated merchant marine officers in the U.S. Navy’s Strategic Sealift Officer program, primarily graduates of USMMA.
- Revitalizing logistics infrastructure: Improving port facilities, enhancing supply chain resilience, and securing key international shipping routes must be a top priority.
The U.S. faces numerous challenges as China aggressively expands its naval and maritime capabilities, but it is not yet too late to act. By prioritizing investments in shipbuilding, mariner training, and logistics infrastructure, America can preserve its competitive edge and maintain the ability to project power and protect vital interests around the globe. I am hopeful President Trump will recognize that now is the time to act—before China’s maritime buildup permanently shifts the global balance of power.
Stephen M. Carmel, President at U.S. Marine Management oversees a diverse fleet supporting global commerce, the U.S. Military Sealift Command and Tanker Security Program. He is a former member of the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy Congressional Board of Visitors.