Europe's seasonal natural gas draw has been the largest in years, driven by colder temperatures, reduced wind power generation, and the end of Russian gas imports via Ukraine. The situation is particularly dire in Germany, sending power prices sky-high, resulting in the crippling of its industrial base. However, relief comes from the US, as record-high LNG exports are poised to help replenish Europe's dwindling reserves. 

Most important chart Europeans should be watching... 

The latest data from BloombergNEF shows that US pipeline gas flows to LNG export plants reached 15.7 billion cubic feet on Tuesday—an all-time high and nearly 20% higher than a year ago.

Soaring LNG exports have crowned the US as the world's biggest supplier of LNG. Some figures show output could double by the end of the decade as demand from Europe and Asia continues to rise. 

Since the Ukraine war in 2022, US LNG exports to Europe have surged. 

In fact, the US has become the number one gas dealer for Europeans. 

"Europe, in particular, has turned to American LNG to help replace the loss of Russian pipeline gas since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine," Bloomberg noted, adding, "More US supply could provide relief to LNG buyers in Europe and Asia, which have been grappling with higher prices." 

At the end of 2024, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, told clients that it's "theoretically" possible that US LNG Gulf exports could replace all of Russian NatGas flowing into the EU. 

Dart's note came just days after President Trump wrote on Truth Social: "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!"

Meanwhile, tight supplies on the energy-stricken continent have sent Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe's gas trading, up nearly 157% since bottoming around 22 euros per megawatt-hour about one year ago. 

Trump's 'America First' policy will likely drive even more US LNG shipments to Europe as Brussels seeks to avoid a tariff dispute with Washington.

The second chart of the note should be a major focal point for the Europeans.