Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Germany’s Bild cited unnamed members of Western security services to sensationally report that Trump is allegedly planning to pull all US troops out of Central Europe in compliance with one of the security guarantee requests that Putin put forth in December 2021 as an attempt to avert the special operation. 

Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner to become Germany’s next Chancellor, shortly thereafter publicly declared that his country must prepare for the possibility that Trump abandons NATO’s Article 5.

He's unlikely to do either of these things, but American policy towards NATO will certainly change in the coming future, which will likely take the form of what was detailed in the policy brief that was published at the Trump-affiliated Center for Renewing America in February 2023.

Titled “Pivoting the US Away from Europe to a Dormant NATO”, it describes how the US can get the EU to defend Europe while the US focuses on containing China in Asia and was analyzed here last July, which readers should review.

This goal explains why Trump is demanding that all NATO allies spend 5% of GDP on defense and accounts for the nascent Russian-US “New Détente”. Brokering an armistice or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is meant to free up some of the US’ forces in Central Europe, which includes Germany, for redeployment to Asia. Forcing the Europeans to accept what had practically been their worst nightmare for the past three years should then motivate them to increase defense spending.

New US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth praised Poland as “the model ally on the continent” during his trip to Warsaw earlier this month and Trump sought to make Poland the US’ top ally there during his first term so he probably won’t pull out of there. In fact, “Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner In Europe” for the reasons explained in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, which boil down to restoring its historical geopolitical role as a wedge between Germany and Russia.

The Baltics might not fare the same though since they have nowhere near the same regional significance as Poland does and they could try to provoke a war with Russia in order to drag the US in via NATO. Accordingly, Trump might calculate that it’s better to withdraw some or even all American troops from there while conveying to them that the US won’t come to their aid if they instigate a regional conflict, which could be expressed either behind the scenes or through one of his characteristic pronouncements.

The newfound US-German political tensions could even possibly see the US redeploy some troops from there to Poland, which in the most extreme scenario could result in transferring the headquarters of its European Command from Stuttgart to some Polish city, though it’s too early to say for certain. After all, something as serious as the second-mentioned requires a lot of work, and Trump might also wager that it’s better to keep the headquarters where they’re at in order to not lose more influence in Germany.

In any case, redeploying US troops from Europe to Asia would likely please Russia even if some are transferred from Germany to Poland, especially if Trump makes it clear that NATO members can’t provoke a conflict with Russia and expect America to ride to their rescue via Article 5. Retaining some troops in Europe alongside the integrity of Article 5 amidst the aforesaid conditions could be a pragmatic compromise between the US and Russia’s security interests.

The purpose would be to alleviate their security dilemma that was worsened by NATO’s eastward expansion after the end of the Old Cold War all while maintaining some American military influence on the continent as the US “Pivots (back) to Asia” to more muscularly contain China. The era of Europe freeloading off of the US and its liberal-globalists manipulating it into doing their geopolitical bidding against Russia would end to the benefit of peace-loving people and businessmen on all three sides.