The first phase of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire is coming to a close, with Hamas Thursday night expected to handover the bodies of four more deceased Israelis. This time there won't be a handover ceremony, after outraged Israeli officials threatened it could collapse the deal and all progress made.
Negotiations for the second phase don't really appear to have gotten of the ground as yet. The first phase took effect Jan.19 - and has resulted in the release of 25 living hostages by Hamas, as well as the bodies of four more.
The deal called for the exchange of some 2,000 Palestinian detainees and prisoners held by Israel. Over 60 Israeli hostages still believed to be held in Israel, but some half are suspected to be dead at this point.
Conditions in the Gaza Strip continue to deteriorate amid winter conditions. "Sila Abdul Qader is the seventh child confirmed to have died from the cold in Gaza in just 24 hours," Al Jazeera reports Thursday.
Meanwhile, Turkey is warning that once Israel gets all its citizens back, Prime Minister Netanyahu will simply resume the war, also as the White House has been vocalizing plans for a total displacement of the Palestinian civilian population there:
In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says he fears Israel will resume the war on Gaza after all the captives are released.
“As it is known, an ethnic cleansing war was witnessed by the whole world; almost 60,000 civilian Palestinians were killed, most of them were women and children. This must never reoccur,” Fidan said.
"However, it is feared that once all Israeli captives are released, Netanyahu will resume the war. There are deep concerns in this respect and they give rise to constant threats within the region," he said.
Turkey has also called Israeli policies 'expansionist' - also as tanks and ground forces this week went into the West Bank, resulting in the expelling of some 10,000 Palestinians there (and counting).
Indeed there would be less incentive for Tel Aviv to hold back future military operations. For this reason, Hamas may slow-play future releases, and this is likely to greatly complicate any hopes for a phase two or three sticking.
Early this week, US National Security Advisor Mike Walz, after six Israelis were recently freed on Saturday, has said it was Hamas' fear of Trump that made this possible.
"Hamas is listening to the president... 29 hostages are alive today and reunited with their families because the whole world listened when President Trump said there would be all hell to pay after the Biden administration couldn't get this done for 15 months," Waltz told "Fox & Friends" on Monday.
The timeline of the deal seems to back this assessment - that indeed it was anticipation the Trump presidency would push the deal over the line. That deal had been agreed to on January 19, 2025 - literally the day before Trump was inaugurated.