If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not "aging" like persons, but "aging" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile

Nassim Nicholas Taleb contrasts fragile systems—those that suffer serious harm under volatility—with robust systems that can endure stress with minimal damage. He extends this concept with antifragile systems, which can actually benefit from disorder, but we’ll focus here on the divide between fragile and robust.

Taleb also introduces the Lindy Effect as an idea about longevity: if something non-perishable has been around for a long time, that track record suggests it’s likely to keep going. We’ll see how this relates to two laptops—one from 2008, the other from 2021.

Old Thinkpads: Modular, Robust Survivors

IBM and early Lenovo Thinkpads showcases a design built for longevity. Despite their age, these business-class laptop are still serviceable and useful for web browsing, ‘office work’, and light coding. These machine are too slow to handle tasks like video editing or gaming, but they remain consistent in handling everyday tasks without failing under normal wear and tear.

One of the main reasons that old Thinkpads stand out is their design philosophy. They are made with swappable components with the intention of user upgradeability. The battery, RAM, storage drive, keyboard, and even the CPU can be easily replaced. I can open the bottom of my T400 with a regular screwdriver and clean the fan. A battery swap is trivial thanks to a removable pack. No single failure is catastrophic because there’s a straightforward path to replacement or repair.

The build quality greatly contributes to old Thinkpads robustness. They are made with a sturdy chassis with plastic and magnesium alloy elements, giving it a solid feel. The design absorbs bumps and small impacts without major issues. They can easily take accidental knocks and remain fully operational.

Old Thinkpads benefits from an open ecosystem. They uses standard PC architecture (x86), so installing various operating systems is easy. On the hardware side, replacement parts are widely available on the secondary market. This broad compatibility keeps the machine relevant long past its original release date. By Taleb’s Lindy Effect, the fact that my T400 can still work well after so many years suggests it’s likely to remain functional as people have already figured out the ways to significantly extend its lifespan.

All these factors show how the my Thinkpad is robust: it resists sudden failures, and when problems do arise, their are documented way to fit it. Old beat up Thinkpads are Lindy.

Modern MacBooks: High Performance, But Fragile

My MacBook offers exceptional speed and efficiency an order of magnitude more than my Thinkpad. It handles tasks—like video editing or running large LLM’s without breaking a sweat. Under ideal conditions, it’s reliable and powerful.

However, from a Talebian perspective, my MacBook’s design is fragile. Most components of the laptop are soldered onto the logic board. If the SSD or RAM fails, there’s no simple replacement option. A single failure in a component of my MacBook can render the entire laptop unusable. The tightly integrated design of modern Apple hardware increases the stakes of any malfunction.

The repairability of Apple products is extremely limited. Apple uses proprietary screws and adhesives, and parts are incompatible with third-party replacements. A battery replacement (usually one of the first things that fails in mobile electronics) involves carefully prying out a glued component. Routine maintenance tasks that are straightforward on the Thinkpad can require specialized tools and authorized service for the MacBook. This lack of modularity means the system can easily become bricked from hardware fails from component parts.

Another aspect contributing to the fragility of MacBooks is Apple’s software control. Apple’s software updates and security updates to macOS essentially determines how long the MacBook remains safe to use. Once Apple ends official support for a machine the user has to buy a new MacBook or use an increasingly compromised system. Apple hardware uses an arm architecture that cannot ‘dual boot’ Windows or Linux easily. Once macOS support dies for a modern MacBook it becomes obsolete.

While my MacBook is great to use, the machine has a lifespan built into its OS support and cannot recover easily from physical damage. MacBooks are not modular, completely proprietary, and have a perishability built into them. Additionally (this is true of all new laptops), when something does go wrong with a new MacBook it hard to fix as it’s not old enough for people to have figured out if their are ways to extend its lifespan as none have broke yet. Shiny Macbooks are not very Lindy.

Conclusion:

My Thinkpad is robust because it can face stress (e.g. a broken part, a needed upgrade) without losing its core functionality. It’s modular and benefits from it being old enough that other people know how to extend its lifespan. If something breaks, I replace it. If I need a new feature, I can potentially slot it in. My MacBook despite its phenomenal power, is fragile: if Apple discontinues support or a soldered part dies, there is not much I can do. There is not a knowledge base yet on how to significantly extend the life of these Apple Silicon machines, and there likely never will because of the machines inherent lack of modality.

Right now I’m using both my Macbook and my Thinkpad a lot. I continue to use my MacBook because I like using proprietary software like Camtasia or Alfred, I like being able to use local LLM’s, and I enjoy the modern screen and ports that my MacBooks has. But if I had to guess which machine I will still be using in another 17 years I’d point to my ThinkPad with its battery latch and standard screws; I see no reason why it will not be able to manage email management, website development, and internet browsing indefinitely.