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原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43605670

Hacker News用户正在讨论美国股指期货暴跌引发的潜在经济影响,而这暴跌是由贸易紧张局势引发的。一些人推测市场崩盘是蓄意的,是为了让富人能够以更低的价格购买资产,不过其他人则认为这是阴谋论,并将此归咎于总统的关税政策。随后展开了一场辩论,讨论市场下滑受影响最大的是谁:富人,他们的投资组合可能会缩水;还是中产阶级和工薪阶层,他们面临失业和生活质量下降。评论者强调了股票所有权在富人中的集中度,另一些人则指出,虽然富人可能在绝对数字上损失金钱,但穷人由于安全网规模小得多,实际上遭受的损失更大。还有人认为,这场危机正在侵蚀人们对美国政府的长期信心。一些用户还在评论共和党的目标是肢解政府并将其出售。

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U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on Wall Street (reuters.com)
86 points by pmags 38 minutes ago | hide | past | favorite | 51 comments










I keep thinking about Tim Cook's words years back about manufacturing in China, and how there's a talent density there that just doesn't exist in the United States. That within a three block radius you can find people with deep knowledge and skillset in all areas of production.

Just don't see how this materializes in any meaningful timeframe in the United States — if it's even doable at all.

It also ignores the fact that since the 1970s the United States has transitioned more and more to information and services jobs.

The only plausible way out I see in the near term is a bunch of carve outs and one-off deals that allows the U.S. government to say, "our bluff worked."

But long term, automation is going to be taking more and more of these jobs and I just don't see how you justify sneakers costing what it will cost to pay American workers enough to prosper.

Personally from an environmental standpoint I've questioned for a couple of decades now whether we can ever slow down and try and buy more sustainable goods even if they cost more. But this way of trying to get there feels like medieval medicine.



This is because a mad king and his enablers in technology are intentionally crashing the global economy so they can control the aftermath.


So one major sector the tariff hit is the auto industry. Lots of cars are imports or built elsewhere or have parts imported.

In completely unrelated news, a good friend of POTUS runs an American car manufacturer. I think it’s called Tesla or some such?



Insiders could be trading and making a lot of money on these snap decisions. Judge for yourself whether such a thing would happen.

It would have been better if Trump gave advance notice before shaking everything up on a dime. I predict he'll reverse some terrifs without warning, thus creating another insider trade opportunity.



People keep saying this but California with its technology workers are overwhelmingly against Trump. I don't see why technology should be singled out any more than corn farmers and whiskey makers.


Theyre crashing the market to monetize the debt at cheaper rates


This is the dumbest theory I’ve heard so far.


This implies some sort of intelligent (if evil) master plan.

There is no master plan other than "Trump likes tariffs".

That's it. That's all it is.

He's been talking about tariffs for decades, it's a thing that he likes, and he now has unchecked power. Hence, tariffs.

The tariffs he put in place don't even make sense. They're a Thanos snap on every country, and makes about as much logical sense as that fictional character's evil master plan did! I.e., none.

I seriously doubt Elon likes that Europe will enact retaliatory tariffs on Tesla car imports, halving his market overnight. "Yay! Less sales! Crashing stocks! Woo!"

I very seriously doubt that other billionaires -- who's net worth is tied up in stocks and bonds -- are ecstatic that these are plummeting in value. All of the Reddit memes of "they just want to buy the dip" presupposes that these billionaires all "got out of the market", converted their stocks to something like gold or Bitcoin, and will then buy back in at a multi-trillion-dollar scale. Other than Warren Buffet, nobody has done this. The market would have crashed months ago if they had all sold off simultaneously!

This is WallStreetBets nonsense.



I’m convinced the same. Crash it all so the wealthy can buy it back cheaper

Also because whatever Fox News says is truth to these people. They could tell people it’s raining on a sunny day and they will carry and umbrella and call people without one sheep



Well, Fox News did show dolars raining on Trump on Friday, when arguing that tariffs are good. Yes, for real:

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llzcxpmmgj2c



You have to believe there will be something left to own. This is going to get pretty ugly.

I honestly think he is dumb and the people he has surrounded himself with are also dumb. It’s just hard to believe.



People said the same when COVID started. The sides were reversed back then.


Really curious what everyone thinks fair correction is if the stay the course. 50% reduction?


Look at volatility indicators perhaps? If they're high, it suggests that further declines are very much possible if this policy change is not reversed.


The average price to earnings ratio of the s&p 500 since 1990 is about 20.

We are currently still above that.



Things look grim for the opening bell on Monday.

As of 6:41pm EDT on Sunday:

* S&P futures: -4.13%

* NASDAQ futures: -4.89%

* DOW futures: -3.72%



I don't know how credible https://truflation.com/ is, but they say inflation is at 1.22. Could this be spun as a victory to hide the crash ?


what do you know raising prices on everything not wholly made in country from raw materials extracted in country overnight in a world with globe spanning complex supply lines breaks the economy


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I would rather that checking my bank balance and 401k and whether or not I can afford to buy food and make my mortgage payment not be "exciting" thank-you very much.



If nothing changes the market will drop 20% next week.


Yeah I bought at Friday's close. Sorry.


The hand has made contact with the stove.


I think this implies learning. Maybe not? But just so I'm being clear, I do not believe certain parties will learn from this.


The stove analogy is more about the US voting base learning a lesson


There will be no lesson learned. It will be blamed on the other side and the story will be bought hook line and sinker


Everyone's attention is drawn to a Tanvi Ratna thread on X => https://x.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865?s=19

Whether or not these Big Brain ideas bear fruit remains to be seen.



This is the week when "Tech and Finance bro" start turning against Trump, unless he does something quickly.

Bessent, the only sane member of Trump's cabinet, sounded really worried and stressed last days. This kind of damage, cannot be undone just by saying 'Hey, it was art of the deal'. Confidence in US government is destroyed. Sure there will announcements about 100s or 1000s of Billions that will be invested, but it's just words. Just like DOGE saved how much already ? 1 Trillion $ ? And still not a single person was charged with fraud...

S&P is down 2.5% on 1Y, and up 80% on 5Y, and valuations are at insane, Dot-com bubble levels. If he keeps the tariffs though, the damage can become much much more substantial that this relatively small decline in the markets.

"When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king, the palace becomes a circus" Turkish Proverb.



Bessent had repeatedly been saying that he wanted to drive down the yield on the 10 year treasury. The stock market sell-off has been somewhat effective in doing this, with the 10 year's yield having been driven down 0.5 basis points in the last two months, although I doubt this precipitous selloff is really what he had in mind.


>Confidence in US government is destroyed.

That has long been a Republican goal. They want to tear it apart and sell the pieces.



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The rich will be fine. This is what the start of a recession looks like.


the rich, e.g. top 10% are definitely more affected by stock prices than bottom 50%. if your goal is to punish rich people it would look pretty much like this.

if you’re so confident there will be a recession let’s do 1000 to 1 odds for next 12 months. bitcoin. ya?



A rich person who had 10M and now has 8M is still rich. Raising prices on everything through tariffs also does little to impact the rich, but destroys the bottom 50%, along with the recession that's likely to follow. If the goal was really to punish the rich, it would be through tax policy.


The stock price, in this instance, is moving for a reason and that reason is in keeping with almost everyone being poorer. I was lukewarm trump, but this move was exceptionally stupid in the face of alternatives that exist.


Why were you even lukewarm Trump when this exact tariff plan was a flagship part of his platform?


Math doesn’t math because it’s not about absolute losses, but practical losses.

If you go from 100mil in assets to 10m, you’re fine. If you go from 100k to 10k, you’re not.



you think poor people have 100k in equities? lmao


What about people going from "negative net worth, but employed" to "laid off because the company's stock price is down"?



the exact same could be said if you taxed corporations more, so no I don’t really care.



Wealthy people hold diversified assets (including cash buffers).

Market fluctuations are temporary and benefit the wealthiest who are able to balance their asset allocation, shifting stable or growing assets to buy other assets with depressed prices.

The wealth will get richer, while the poor will literally not eat, whether due to poor economic conditions, or because of a massive attack on social safety nets, or a combination of those things.



It depends what you mean by affected.

If you mean, decline in net worth and or income, sure, the rich

If you mean standard of living, disposable income and general economic stability, then for sure the poor are more impacted



The rich are making a killing with hedge funds and puts.


no they’re not. go look at the volume


What's the first thing a CEO does when the stock price falls?


In capitalism the profits will flow to the top no matter what happens. This is a handslap. Taxing Wealth and obscene profits, and treating collateralized debt as selling the underlying would be more reasonable. Instead we are tanking the global order we built because we don't want to tax the status quo.


Per Gemini:

In the United States, stock market wealth is highly concentrated, with the wealthiest 10% owning a record 93% of all stock market wealth, while the bottom 50% owns just 1%.

OP isn't wrong.



On a relative and even absolute basis the wealthy will lose substantially more money.

On a personal quality of life basis the middle class will get hit the hardest. It will impact retirement timelines, vacations, home renovations, car purchases, etc. seeing their 401k go down will make them feel poorer and want to save more and thus reduce their discretionary spending and reducing the amount of fun and entertainment they enjoy.



this simply isn’t true at all. ignore the top 10%, the vast majority of americans do not have any real exposure to equities.



Yes, they are - the "rich" will take a haircut and not care because they fundamentally own the economy itself.

The "middle class" or what's left it (see techies and their RSUs) are the ones who actually care about the stock market in the short/medium term because all their money is tied up in it, and their lucky bets are all that stand between them and being working class.

The working class has been screwed six ways to sunday, so they don't really care except insofar as it might mean we're doing stupid stuff like getting in more wars, or making it impossible to pay rent.



Were the wealthy hurt more by 2008 compared to the working-class? And I don’t mean in percent net worth terms, I mean relative degradation in lifestyle.


No, but investment banks were bailed out by the federal government at the taxpayer’s expense while the lower classes saw nothing


>this is what eating da rich looks like, and no, poor people don’t have 401ks either,

Bullshit. Many Walmart floor associates have 401ks and many of them are on food stamps.







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