Nick Gerli, CEO and Founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, has issued another troubling update on Florida's housing market—this time sounding the alarm about a collapse in demand across the Miami metro area. He described the plunge in sales as "breathtaking."

For the last few years, we've tracked the post-Covid surge in inventory hitting Sun Belt states, including this note from last summer: 

This was followed by Gerli's report in late January: "My Favorite Housing Market Graph Right Now"... 

Now Gerli has offered more color on the deteriorating housing market in Miami:

The collapse in demand in Miami's housing market is breathtaking. Sales are down 50% from pandemic peak, and are 30% below the long-term average for March. There's a narrative building in Florida that somehow Miami won't be impacted by this housing downturn. And that narrative is likely wrong.

Gerli debunked some misconceptions about the downturn, with some individuals saying this is "West Coast only."

Inventory in Miami has surged to 51,000 homes - the second highest on record. 

Meanwhile. 

"In some ways, it's surprising prices haven't dropped by more already due to the demand collapse. And resulting inventory spike. but in the end housing downturns can take time to play out. And the whole Miami area is at a big risk if the current trends in the market continue," Gerli noted. 

According to the Reventure app, prices across Miami-Dade County are 20.3% overvalued. 

He warned: "The more overvalued prices are, the greater the risk of downturns."

Separately, and more broadly, the US housing inventory for new homes has hit its highest level since 2007.

What could possibly go wrong in an oversupplied housing market, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering around 7%?