预计全球人口将在2085年开始下降。
Global Population Is Projected To Begin Declining In 2085

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/global-population-projected-begin-declining-2085

全球人口结构正在发生重大转变,生育率下降和预期寿命上升导致全球人口老龄化。平均年龄从1980年的26.5岁上升到2025年的33.6岁,同时人口增长率也从1.8%下降到0.9%。这一趋势预计将持续下去,全球人口预计将在2085年左右达到峰值,然后下降,到2100年平均年龄将达到43.2岁,增长率为-0.1%。 发达经济体老龄化速度很快,而新兴经济体仍在增长,尽管速度放缓。这种转变带来了经济挑战,例如劳动力萎缩以及养老金和医疗系统面临的压力加大。然而,更健康的老龄化可能导致更长的工作寿命和老年工人的生产力提高,从而 potentially 减轻这些负面影响。


原文

The global population is undergoing a major demographic shift.

As fertility rates fall and life expectancy rises, average ages are climbing in nearly every country, while population growth is steadily tapering off.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, visualizes global population growth and average age from 1980 to 2100, based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, April 2025 edition.

How the World Will Age as Population Growth Falls

As of 2025, the average person is 33.6 years old, up from 26.5 years in 1980. Over that same period, global population growth has slowed from 1.8% to 0.9% in 2025.

This trend is expected to continue through the end of the century, as shown in the table below, which breaks down the projected average age and population growth rate from 1980 to 2100:

YearAverage population growth (%)Average population age (years)Lower range of expected population growth (%)Upper range of expected population growth (%)
19801.8%26.50.9%2.9%
19851.8%26.90.8%2.9%
19901.8%27.30.8%2.8%
19951.5%28.00.5%2.6%
20001.4%28.90.6%2.4%
20051.3%29.80.5%2.4%
20101.3%30.70.4%2.4%
20151.2%31.60.3%2.4%
20201.0%32.50.2%2.0%
20250.9%33.60.1%1.9%
20300.8%34.70.0%1.7%
20350.7%35.7-0.1%1.6%
20400.6%36.6-0.2%1.4%
20450.5%37.4-0.2%1.3%
20500.4%38.1-0.3%1.1%
20550.3%38.8-0.4%1.0%
20600.3%39.5-0.4%0.9%
20650.2%40.1-0.5%0.8%
20700.2%40.7-0.5%0.7%
20750.1%41.2-0.6%0.6%
20800.0%41.6-0.6%0.5%
20850.0%42.0-0.6%0.4%
2090-0.1%42.5-0.6%0.3%
2095-0.1%42.9-0.6%0.2%
2100-0.1%43.2-0.7%0.2%

The global population is projected to begin declining in 2085, as the average age rises to 42 years. By the year 2100, the average person is expected to be 43 years old, with population growth at -0.1%.

However, the trend is divided across countries. Advanced economies like Japan, Germany, and Italy are aging rapidly and seeing population declines. Meanwhile, emerging economies like India still have growing populations, but the growth is slowing down.

The gradual decline is largely due to falling fertility rates globally, along with improvements in healthcare and life expectancy resulting in larger senior populations.

The Impacts of an Aging Population

Many economies are reaching their demographic turning points—when the share of the working-age population in their total population begins declining.

European countries like Germany, France, and Italy crossed this mark pre-2000, and are now among the world’s “super-aged societies”. The United States, the U.K., and China have followed in the last two decades.

But what does this mean for economic growth and the global economy?

Population aging carries several economic challenges. These include shrinking labor forces, slower productivity growth, and increased fiscal pressure on pension and healthcare systems.

However, there is a silver lining: the IMF notes that while people are living longer, they’re also aging more healthfully. This could result in longer working lives and enhance productivity among older workers, potentially easing the economic impacts of an aging population.

If you enjoyed this infographic, check out A Visual Breakdown of Where Economic Power Lies in 2025, on the Voronoi app.

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