Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

原始链接: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/adp-jobs-report-june-2025.html

A recent ADP report revealed an unexpected contraction in private sector hiring in June, with a loss of 33,000 jobs, marking the first decrease since March 2023. This contrasts sharply with economists' expectations of a 100,000 increase. The bulk of job losses occurred in service roles, particularly in professional/business services and health/education. Geographically, the Midwest and West experienced the strongest contractions, while the South saw payroll expansion. Smaller firms faced more job losses than larger ones. Despite the ADP report's spotty track record in predicting government jobs reports, it raises concerns about the economy's strength. The government's nonfarm payrolls report is due Thursday, with economists anticipating a 110,000 increase and a rise in the unemployment rate. Weekly jobless claims data is also expected Thursday.

一篇CNBC关于私营部门减少3.3万个工作岗位的文章引发了Hacker News的热烈讨论,这一数字大大低于预期。用户们争论了当前失业率和人均GDP等经济指标的准确性和实用性。一些人认为这些指标具有误导性,无法捕捉到就业不足、工资停滞和整体经济福祉等问题。讨论强调需要考虑多种指标,例如家庭可支配收入中位数、按年龄段划分的劳动力参与率和实际工资,以获得更全面的情况。一些参与者指出,美国劳工统计局(BLS)提供了更全面的数据,包括U-6失业率和其他指标,但批评媒体过分关注简单易懂,但却可能具有误导性的数字。人们还担心经济数据会被政治操纵,公众对复杂经济问题的理解肤浅,呼吁加强教育和报道。
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原文

People visit booths set up by the City of Sunrise and their police department at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair at the Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May's soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.

This week, the government's nonfarm payrolls report will be out on Thursday with economists expecting a healthy 110,000 increase for June, per Dow Jones estimates. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. Some economists could revise down their jobs reports estimates following ADP's data.

Weekly jobless claims data is also due Thursday, with economists penciling in 240,000. This string of labor stats comes during a shortened trading week, with the market closing early on Thursday and remaining dark on Friday in honor of the July Fourth holiday.

Service roles hit hardest

The bulk of job losses came in service roles tied to professional and business services and health and education, according to ADP. Professional/business services notched a decline of 56,000, while health/education saw a net loss of 52,000.

Financial activity roles also contributed to the month's decline with a drop of 14,000 on balance.

But the contraction was capped by payroll expansions in goods-producing roles across industries such as manufacturing and mining. All together, goods-producing positions grew by 32,000 in the month, while payrolls for service roles overall fell by 66,000.

The Midwest and Western U.S. saw the strongest contractions in June, declining by 24,000 and 20,000, respectively. Meanwhile, the Northeast shed 3,000 roles. The Southern U.S. was the sole region tracked by the ADP to see payrolls expand on net in the month, recording an increase of 13,000 positions.

The smallest firms tended to see more job losses in the month than their larger counterparts. In fact, businesses with more than 500 employees saw the biggest payroll growth in the month with an increase of 30,000, per ADP. By comparison, businesses with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 29,000 lost roles on net.

Annual income growth decreased modestly from May for both job stayers and hoppers. The rate of pay increase for those staying in their jobs ticked down to 4.4% from 4.5%, while those getting new roles slid to 6.8% from 7%.

The S&P 500 is up more than 4% for the year, posting a stunning comeback in the second quarter after worries about President Donald Trump's tariff fights nearly sent the benchmark into a bear market.

Clarification: The ADP report issued Wednesday referred to June data. That was not clear in an earlier version. 

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