法国情报负责人:我们夸大了伊朗的罢工影响,我们不知道铀在哪里
French Intelligence Chief: US Overstated Iran Strike Impact & We Don't Know Where The Uranium Is

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/french-intelligence-chief-us-overstated-iran-strike-impact-we-dont-know-where-uranium

在上个月以色列和美国对伊朗核设施的空袭之后,评估的损害程度和延误伊朗核计划的程度各不相同。尽管法国的DGSE负责人尼古拉斯·勒纳(Nicolas Lerner)认为,该计划已大大推迟了“数月”,但他强调,由于IAEA检查员被驱逐出境,伊朗仍然富裕的铀的确切位置尚不确定。 Lerner指出,他们有迹象,但没有IAEA验证就无法确认。这与五角大楼的说法与特朗普先前的彻底毁灭和两年挫折的说法形成鲜明对比,而其他西方官员和一些美国情报则表明延迟延迟。情况是动荡的。如果伊朗试图恢复其核计划,以色列正在为潜在的军事行动做准备,尤其是如果他们试图从受损的设施中移动丰富的铀。有人猜测,伊朗在袭击之前已经将这些库存移动了,可能将它们埋在地下深处,使它们难以瞄准。

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原文

The head of France's foreign intelligence agency stated Tuesday that last month's Israeli and American airstrikes on Iran had destroyed only part of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, though the reality is that the exact whereabouts of the remaining material are unknown.

Chief of the country's Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) Nicolas Lerner said in a televised interview the strikes had merely delayed Iran’s nuclear program by several months.

"Our assessment today is that each of these stages has been very seriously affected, very seriously damaged," he said. "The nuclear program, as we knew it, has been extremely delayed, probably many months," he added.

While France has some indications of where Iran's uranium might be, Lerner emphasized in the remarks that definitive confirmation would only be possible once the UN's atomic watchdog resumes inspections in the country; however, the problem is that Tehran just formally booted IAEA inspectors from the country.

"Today we have indications (on where it is), but we cannot say with certainty as long as the IAEA does not restart its work. It's very important. We won't have the capacity to trace it (the stocks)," Lerner said.

Iranian officials have accused IAEA officials of actually spying on the Islamic Republic's nuclear energy program, secretly passing information on to Tel Aviv and Washington, which helped with targeting in the recent 12-day war.

Lerner's assessment somewhat partially aligns with the view of US intelligence and the military, given that last week Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the strikes likely pushed Iran’s nuclear ambitions back by one to two years.

But the Trump admin has consistently claimed that Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan had been destroyed, amid conflicting reports and some international pushback on his assertions.

Other Western officials have indicated a setback of merely "months". And even some US intelligence officials have been quoted in CNN and the NY Times giving a similar assessment.

American military officials in public statements have also been more cautious, over and against their Commander-in-Chief declaring on several occasions, including on the night of the B-2 bomber raids, that the sites were "completely destroyed" and that Iran’s nuclear program was "obliterated".

Trump wants to proclaim a successful ceasefire in the wake of last month's war between Israel and Tehran, and it has actually held, but could erupt again at any moment, for example given that:

Israel is preparing for the possibility of further military action if Iran tries to revive its nuclear program, and Israeli officials think President Trump could green light renewed Israeli attacks, two sources with knowledge tell Axios.

The report continues, "One scenario would be an Iranian attempt to remove the highly enriched uranium inside the damaged facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, according to the sources."

There's already long been ample speculation that these enriched uranium stockpiles were already moved, especially when Iran began coming under the surprise attack by Israeli warplanes on June 13. These stockpiles could also be buried deep underground, beyond the reach of even the most far-penetrating bunker bombs in America's arsenal.

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