Anthropic 首席执行官表示,在3-6个月内,人工智能将编写90%的代码(2025年3月)。
Anthropic's CEO says in 3-6 months, AI will write 90% of the code (March 2025)

原始链接: https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-code-3-to-6-months-2025-3

Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代预测软件开发将迅速转变,认为AI可能在3-6个月内编写**90%的代码,并在一年内编写*所有*代码**。虽然开发者最初仍需定义设计特性,但阿莫代相信AI最终将超越人类能力,覆盖所有行业。 这一预测与对AI影响日益增长的观察相符。Y Combinator报告称,其即将到来的创业团队中已有25%在使用AI生成95%的代码。包括国际货币基金组织(IMF)的克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在内的专家预测,AI可能影响全球40%的工作岗位,可能提升某些职位,同时取代另一些职位。 阿莫代强调需要提高对AI变革潜力的认识,包括其益处和风险,并预计在未来两年内将充分认识到这种影响。

## AI 与编码的未来:HN 上的怀疑论 Anthropic 首席执行官最近声称,AI 在 3-6 个月内(到 2025 年 3 月)将编写 90% 的代码,这一说法在 Hacker News 上引发了争论。 压倒性的情绪倾向于怀疑,许多评论员将其与过去过度炒作的技术预测(如自动驾驶汽车或 Atari 的 E.T. 游戏)相提并论。 用户指出,虽然 AI *生成* 了大量的代码,但其中很多都需要进行大量的人工审查和更正,常常会引入技术债务。 担忧集中在 AI 无法有效处理复杂的问题解决、架构设计或维护遗留系统。 许多人认为 AI 目前擅长样板任务,但未能达到真正的“编程”水平。 一些评论员强调了 AI 被用于 *增强* 现有开发人员的趋势,而不是取代他们,并担心随着公司将速度置于可维护性之上,代码质量会下降。 还有一种愤世嫉俗的观点认为,这些预测是营销炒作,旨在人为抬高估值,类似于过去的科技泡沫。 虽然承认 AI 的潜力,但普遍的共识认为,在不久的将来,完全取代开发人员是不可能的。
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原文

Dario Amodei, the CEO of the AI startup Anthropic, said on Monday that AI, and not software developers, could be writing all of the code in our software in a year.

"I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code," Amodei said at a Council of Foreign Relations event on Monday.

Amodei said software developers would still have a role to play in the near term. This is because humans will have to feed the AI models with design features and conditions, he said.

"But on the other hand, I think that eventually all those little islands will get picked off by AI systems. And then, we will eventually reach the point where the AIs can do everything that humans can. And I think that will happen in every industry," Amodei said.

Amodei, who used to work at OpenAI, cofounded Anthropic in 2021. The company has received billions of dollars in funding from tech giants such as Google and Amazon.

This isn't the first time Amodei has spoken publicly about the seismic impact AI could have on the world.

Last month, Amodei said in an interview with The New York Times that people still weren't recognizing the effect AI could have on their lives and livelihoods.

"I think people will wake up to both the risks and the benefits to a much more extreme extent than they will before over the next two years," Amodei said in an interview on the Times' "Hard Fork" podcast that aired on February 28.

Representatives for Amodei at Anthropic didn't respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

To be sure, Amodei isn't the only one who has recognized AI's ability to displace software developers.

Garry Tan, the president and CEO of the startup incubator Y Combinator, said in an X post on March 5 that one-quarter of the founders in the company's 2025 winter batch were relying heavily on AI to code their software.

"For 25% of the Winter 2025 batch, 95% of lines of code are LLM generated. That's not a typo," Tan wrote.

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said last year that she expected AI to impact about 40% of global jobs.

"Roughly half the exposed jobs may benefit from AI integration, enhancing productivity. For the other half, AI applications may execute key tasks currently performed by humans, which could lower labor demand, leading to lower wages and reduced hiring," Georgieva wrote in a blog post in January 2024.

"In the most extreme cases," she added, "some of these jobs may disappear."

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