In part of a continuing trend of major Western publications belatedly admitting that all is not well with Ukraine policy and the state the war, The Times of London reported Sunday that the UK has "nothing" left it its own military stockpiles after being among Ukraine's biggest weapons suppliers for nearly two years of conflict.
British defense officials and European leaders are now busy "cranking through the gears" to ramp up weapons production, the report says, citing an unnamed staffer from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s office.
The report also relied on an unnamed Ukrainian source. The dwindled UK stockpile is being reported on at a time that "Britain’s military intelligence chiefs believe Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia in 2024 because it does not have the manpower or the weapons for a big battlefield breakthrough," The Times wrote.
An internal UK government debate and divide has emerged over the future course of London's policy, with some arguing that the Western allies simply need more "time" to ramp up arms production.
But one big uncertainty at a moment the West is generally feeling "war fatigue" - according to most public polling among various countries' citizenry - is the question of who will be in the White House in 2025. European officials are nervous that a Trump victory would spell the end of efforts to fuel the proxy war against President Vladimir Putin.
At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelensky is clearly becoming more and more unpopular, even on an international stage. A former Ukrainian official told the Times that he's losing support because of the immense death toll, but with no end-game or plans for negotiations in sight. The source described there's growing anger and pushback at the spectacle of men and women being "sent to the front line to die."
A British source additionally explained to the Times that if the US is forced to take a backseat due to its domestic politics (and with Republicans still holding up Biden's billions more in defense aid for Kiev), then Europe will have to step up and keep aid flowing.
"Can continental Europe afford to fold just because Trump says no more US dollars? I think most realize that Putin can’t be allowed to win as consequences for European security are grave," the source said.
Below is an example of the kind of wishful thinking that still exists in Europe, as quoted in the Times report:
Although he did not provide comment on a future US presidency, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, said he was speaking to his counterparts in Europe constantly about the need to back Ukraine in its “darkest hour”.
In comments to The Times after two days of major aerial assaults by both sides, he said: “We need to pull together to help them in a war that will define Europe for decades — both with hardware and also the support and moral leadership.”
But many analysts would view this as a pipe dream given that Washington's contribution far outweighs Europe's aid to Ukraine by a massive margin. Likely Europe simply won't be able to close so large a gap even if European countries have the collective will.