债券市场突然更关注就业而非通胀。

债券市场突然更关注就业而非通胀。
The Bond Market Is Suddenly More Concerned About Jobs Than Inflation

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-market-suddenly-more-concerned-about-jobs-inflation

由迈克·谢德洛克（Mike Shedlock）撰写，发表于MishTalk.com：长期债券的结论终于出来了。就业和增长超过了通胀。美国国债收益率说明： 8月5日至8月21日期间，美国国债收益率（期限为2年或更长）均有所上升。 8月21日至9月2日期间，对于30年期长期债券持有者来说非常痛苦，但对其他期限的债券持有者来说则有利。从9月2日开始，债券市场全面反弹。 9月2日以来国债收益率变化：发生了什么？ 9月2日公布的ISM报告显示招聘人数减少。 9月3日公布的BLS JOLTS报告显示，失业人数首次超过职位空缺，自疫情以来首次出现这种情况。 9月4日公布的ADP报告疲软，尤其是小型企业。 9月5日公布的非农就业报告是一场灾难。 10年期国债和30年期长期债券的趋势再次同步。两者都在下降。这种差异的解决是因为就业疲软而非通胀担忧，但鲍威尔将保持谨慎，除非出现崩盘。

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The long bond verdict is finally in. Jobs and growth outweigh inflation.

US Treasury Yield Notes

Between August 5 and August 21, bond yields for US treasuries of 2 year duration or longer all rose.
The period between August 21 and September 2 was very painful for 30-year long bond holders but favorable for the rest.
Starting September 2, there was a bond market rally across the board.

Treasury Yield Changes Since September 2

What Happened?

The ISM report on September 2 showed weak hiring.
The BLS JOLTS repot on September 3 revealed unemployment was above job openings for the first time since the pandemic.
The ADP report on September 4 was weak, especially small businesses.
The nonfarm payroll report on September 5 was a disaster.

The trend on the 10-year treasury note and the 30-year long bond are back in sync. Both are headed lower.

The discrepancy resolved to job weakness over inflation concerns, but Powell will be cautious unless there is a collapse.

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