Higher global economic growth and solid Chinese activity will lead to a strong rebound in global oil demand, which will grow by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, OPEC said on Wednesday in its first detailed assessment and outlook of next year’s demand levels. OPEC expects global economic growth at 2.8% in 2025, up from the 2.6% growth predicted for 2024, according to the cartel’s closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today.
“With this, global oil demand in 2025 is set to grow by a robust 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, sustained by continued solid economic activity in China, and expected firm growth in other non-OECD countries,” OPEC said.
Oil demand growth next year will be driven by nearly 1.7 million bpd growth in non-OECD countries, mostly in China, the Middle East, and India.
Growth in 2025 is primarily set to come from the U.S. liquids production, expected to expand by 600,000 bpd, mainly from Permian crude, non-conventional NGLs, and the Gulf of Mexico. Other main growth drivers are expected to be Brazil, Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with new field start-ups, ramp-ups, or the optimization of existing projects, OPEC said.
OPEC brought forward its first outlook for the next year by several months to provide longer-term guidance to the market.
For 2024, OPEC left demand growth forecast unchanged from the previous month’s projection, at 2.2 million bpd, according to OilPrice.com.
“The undertaking to reach beyond the previously established time horizon of short-term forecasting serves to support the understanding of market dynamics and to support the continued commitment of the OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) to achieve and sustain a stable oil market, and to provide long-term guidance for the market,” OPEC said.
In terms of supply, non-OPEC production is set to rise by 1.3 million bpd in each of 2024 and 2025, according to the organization.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2025 will be supported by expected healthy demand and upstream investment, OPEC said. Oil and gas upstream capital expenditure in non-OPEC countries is expected at around $473 billion next year, according to the cartel.