电动汽车贬值速度比燃油车快得多。
EVs are depreciating faster than gas-powered cars

原始链接: https://restofworld.org/2025/ev-depreciation-blusmart-collapse/

## 电动汽车转售价值危机 一场全球危机正在电动汽车(EV)转售市场中展开,对个人车主和车队运营商都产生了重大影响。电动汽车的贬值速度远快于汽油车——一些车型仅在两年内就损失了超过40%的价值,而同类汽油车的贬值幅度为20%。这主要是由于对电池寿命的不确定性,而电池是电动汽车中最有价值的部件。 印度的BluSmart网约车服务的失败凸显了这一崩溃,大量贬值的汽车涌入市场。赫兹等主要企业也因电动汽车价值暴跌而遭受了数十亿美元的损失。依赖于可预测的总拥有成本的车队尤其脆弱。 区域差异依然存在,在对电动汽车友好的市场(如中国和挪威)中,转售价值更高。然而,长距离和气候敏感性等因素阻碍了北美地区的转售价值。新兴的解决方案,如“电池即服务”模式以及对电池寿命的信心增加(每年仅下降1-2%),为稳定市场提供了潜力。尽管面临当前挑战,提高数据透明度并减缓创新速度可能有助于重建信心并提振未来的二手电动汽车市场。

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原文

The resale value of electric vehicles is collapsing worldwide, hurting private owners and fleet operators.

The crisis became especially apparent when BluSmart, India’s pioneering all-electric ride-hailing service, collapsed in April amid financial fraud allegations. The Delhi-based company’s fleet of thousands of cars, originally worth over $12,000 each, suddenly flooded the market at about $3,000.

For Tesla owners in the U.S., their 2023 Model Ys are worth 42% less than what they paid two years ago, while a Ford F-150 truck bought the same year depreciated just 20%. Older EV models depreciate even faster than newer ones. 

The crisis exposes the fundamental problem that nobody really knows what electric cars are worth in the secondhand market, as their value is largely tied to batteries with uncertain lifespans.

“For gas cars, there’s a 100-year process behind them based on odometer and major maintenance schedules and the expected life of combustion engine parts,” said Andrew Garberson, head of growth and research at Recurrent, a Seattle-based startup that evaluates the wear and tear on used EVs to bring transparency to the secondhand market. “Electric cars have fewer moving parts, and a lot of the value of the car is tied up in one component — the battery.”

A U.K.-based study found 3-year-old EVs lost more than half of their value compared with 39% for gas cars. Another study conducted by Boucar Diouf, an EV researcher and professor at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, found EVs in the U.S. can lose as much as 60% of their value over three to five years, compared with less than half for traditional vehicles.

For fleet owners and operators — across sectors from ride-hailing to rentals to logistics — pledging to go green, this value disaster is threatening to derail the sustainability movement.

Florida-based car rental company Hertz, which bought 100,000 Teslas in 2021, reported a $2.9 billion loss in 2024, driven largely by plummeting EV value, according to its February 2025 earnings call.

The company was hemorrhaging more than $530 a car monthly by late 2024, due to high upfront costs, steep insurance premiums, and long repair and restoration lead times, according to EV news publication InsideEVs. Hertz dumped 30,000 EVs — Teslas bought for more than $40,000 ended up on its website for resale at prices under $20,000. As of October 8, it listed a Model Y for $27,000. A new Model Y cost $45,000 in the U.S. until earlier this month, when Tesla launched a more affordable version at just under $40,000.

“Fleets feel EV residual risk the most because they model total cost of ownership to the decimal and have to remarket thousands of units,” Jack Carlson, CEO of Carvai.ai, an AI-powered vehicle research and shopping platform, told Rest of World. “Retail buyers worry too, but mostly about battery health and charging. Fleets worry about the exit price.”

A YouTube channel showing the resale value of a BluSmart electric car.

Ironically, Tesla still represents the best-case scenario, holding on to resale value better given its years of experience and brand-building. Chinese newcomers like BYD, Nio, and XPeng tend to have lower resale value in comparison, Mariusz Sawula, CEO of Poland-based autoDNA, a provider of vehicle history reports, told Rest of World.

“Premium brands consistently retain higher resale value than mass-market brands, for both ICE [internal combustion engine] vehicles and EVs. No one knows what entirely new Chinese marques will cost in the secondary market — for instance, what a 5-year-old Omoda will fetch,” Sawula said, comparing the likes of Tesla to a sub-brand of Chinese carmaker Chery.

The depreciation crisis also varies by region. While Japanese and U.S. consumers remain skeptical, more EV-friendly markets support strong resale prices, according to Justin Fischer, an automotive expert at vehicle-trading company CarEdge.

“In markets where consumers are open to the idea of going electric, like China, Norway, and Costa Rica, resale values are supported by this higher demand,” Fischer told Rest of World

North America’s vast highways and sprawling distances create a tough environment for used EVs, Karl Brauer, who has reviewed thousands of vehicles since the mid-1990s, told Rest of World. Europe, with its denser cities and shorter commutes, offers more stability in the used EV market compared to the U.S. or Canada. Distance is just one of several limitations, which also include climate sensitivity and charging downtime.

“While an electric vehicle is ideal for shorter trips in urban areas with moderate temperatures, they aren’t as effective as traditional cars for long-distance travel or when the temperature is very high or very low,” Brauer said. “Even electric vehicles with larger batteries and longer ranges still require more time to replenish their energy compared to gasoline and hybrid vehicles.”

Consumer confidence is also buoyed by favourable policies and extensive public fast-charging networks

“Greater demand and a more secure supply side helps stabilize resale values there, compared to what we see here in North America,” Johnny T. Beckett, vice president of sales at Canadian multibrand electric car dealer EVNet, told Rest of World.

Uber walked away from buying 5,000 used BluSmart vehicles, while local rivals like Evara Cabs wouldn’t touch them because of battery and warranty concerns. BluSmart’s fire-sales in the cities of New Delhi and Bengaluru showed exactly how fast EVs can become worthless.

A family car drives modest distances yearly, but Indian fleet vehicles rack up three to four times their mileage, destroying resale value faster, according to Anirudh Damani, managing director at Artha Venture Fund, which backs Uber partner Everest Fleet in India.

“For individual consumers, the resale value is an inconvenience; for fleet operators, it’s an existential problem,” Damani told Rest of World. “Their vehicles are financial assets, not lifestyle products. Without a predictable residual value, even a profitable fleet can become unviable once replacement cycles begin.”

Battery-as-a-service models are emerging as a potential lifeline as they give fleet operators the predictable costs and stable values they desperately need, offering a path forward where battery risk no longer threatens entire business models, Damani said.

An April 2025 McKinsey report shows one in five Europeans and just one in 10 U.S. consumers are considering going electric. Fleet operators, though, are making massive bets globally, with companies such as Uber, Bolt, and Lyft pledging full electrification — despite vehicles potentially becoming worthless before the loans are even paid off.

Data is helping people have confidence in used EV batteries. As confidence rises, so will resale prices.”

Battery tech is also proving more resilient than expected. Research from Recurrent shows batteries deteriorate just 1%–2% annually, with only 1% of cars built after 2016 needing replacements versus 13% for older EVs. Most of the recent replacements are also covered by warranties.

“The data is helping people have confidence in used EV batteries,” Garberson said. “As confidence rises, so will resale prices.”

On the back of these quantifiable indicators, there’s been a rise in certified pre-owned EV programs and state-of-health reports that aid informed decision-making. It’s now also easier to keep up with these cars. The pace of innovation that initially scared buyers has slowed, with manufacturers prioritizing longevity over rapid changes, according to EVNet’s Beckett, who is also the co-founder of the Electric Vehicle Association of Atlantic Canada.

According to Beckett, 2026 “will be a year of industry and market readjustments to both lower supply and demand.”

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